Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Melco Crown Entertainment Limited Message Board

stonewalk428 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 22, 2016 10:30 AM Member since: Feb 27, 2000
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    They should not be able to file bankruptcy

    by asianroid Mar 22, 2016 8:39 AM
    stonewalk428 stonewalk428 Mar 22, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

    The problem is that they are attempting to fence off one section of CZR, put a large portion of their debt in it, remove most of the assets and properties from it, and then declare just that piece bankrupt which frees them from the debt while keeping most of the good assets and properties. This is what the court appointed investigator just finished his report on - that the asset transfers were not done with proper feduciary concern for the subsidiary - it was purposely being screwed because the intent was to bankrupt it.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • stonewalk428 stonewalk428 Mar 16, 2016 4:28 PM Flag

    Plenty of businesses have negative book values. CZR is a healthy business if you ignore their debt - they run an operating profit. Alas that profit isn't enough to service another $5B in debt, let alone pay it back. So the valuation hinges of the odds that somehow they win in court, or that they hang on long enough to generate enough profit to dig their way out of the $5B hole. I don't think those odds are good, but the market is the market and right now it says $6/sh

    Sentiment: Sell

  • stonewalk428 stonewalk428 Mar 16, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    Ironically, one way to view what CZR has been up to is that they're trying to carve off the Junior Bondholders from the chain, allowing the company value to cover the senior notes and keep the stock holders in the game. If the Junior Bondholders are to be paid, now the stock folks are likely screwed unless CZR can earn a ton of money.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • stonewalk428 stonewalk428 Mar 16, 2016 2:24 PM Flag

    A better way to explain it is that if you reach the point where you have to liquidate a company because it can't sustain it's debt/operating expenses, the order in which people get "paid" from whatever assets exist is: Senior Bond Holders, Junior Bond Holders, Preferred Stock, Common Stock. As you hand out the available money it may run out somewhere along that list - often not reaching that last entry "common stock holders"

  • stonewalk428 stonewalk428 Mar 16, 2016 11:52 AM Flag

    It's more viable to borrow/finance an acquisition (which you then own and has value which the creditors can have a stake in) than to simply have to pay $5B to people you tried to screw and you don't gain _anything_ other than ending a lawsuit.

    So depending on how valuable Harrahs assets and business is, $30B for it might have been ok. Needing to put $5B raw debt back onto CZR books isn't viable since the resulting company can't service that level of debt which is why they tried this shady subsidiary-bk move in the first place.

  • stonewalk428 stonewalk428 Mar 16, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    $5B is enough to bankrupt CZR. Basically any liability above roughly $3B makes the parent unviable in the near term - they simply cannot float the additional debt. The whole make-a-subsidiary-and-use-it-to-shed-debt-while-stripping-it-of-the-good-assets tactic was to screw the roughly $7B of junior creditors out of most of their position and take that $7B off the CZR balance sheet, leaving the parent viable. Turns out that's illegal. CZR was hoping to settle for a bit more than $1B, which they can probably handle. At $5B their toast, or more specifically the common stock shareholders are toast.

    Negotiations will now go on between the creditors and CZR - can they agree on a value between $1B and $5B which the creditors will accept and which CZR can actually pay?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Think someone knows something?

    by jdokes48 Mar 9, 2016 8:01 AM
    stonewalk428 stonewalk428 Mar 13, 2016 2:01 PM Flag

    Here is the link to recent insider transactions.

    In the last two years there has been exactly one insider sale of 53k shares in May 2015. There are two insider buys around the same time, one small one, and one for over 1M shares.

    "lower/mid mgmnt" are not required to report their transactions so I have absolutely no idea where you are getting such info.

    Similarly there is no sales "here and there" over the last several years. There is a single small sale "there" in May 2014, and two open-market buys.

    This level of insider activity across the entire company shows that essentially everyone is HOLDING their stock and not selling.

    I expect CZR is likely to get a bad decision about their BK adventure, and my sentiment is negative on the stock, but I hate to see blatant mis-information about something as factual as insider transactions thrown around. There is an unusually LOW level of insider sells at CZR given how risky it's common stock seems to be.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Think someone knows something?

    by jdokes48 Mar 9, 2016 8:01 AM
    stonewalk428 stonewalk428 Mar 11, 2016 3:52 PM Flag

    Still wanting to know what "insider sells this month" you are looking at. I see nothing clear back to mid 2015.

    Sentiment: Sell

MPEL
14.64+0.39(+2.74%)3:22 PMEDT