Qualcomm's second-quarter report indicated that the worst is likely behind it. Still, all it took to #$%$ investors was a veiled hint that it might lose some iPhone component business.
If you want to read a topical article to either dismiss or perpetuate your question (it has been floating on this board for many months) read the recent Motley Fool article. Their opinion is more that QCOM will compete with AMBA instead of buy them out.
Maybe by the end of the year if AMBA manages to beat earnings for a few quarters and have great projections for the subsequent quarters. Oh and also they need GPRO to either ramp back up and make them money again or supplant GPRO as the largest part of their production with something else equally as profitable when AMBA was rocking. Otherwise we are stuck here in the low to mid forties for a while. This is just my opinion and only offered to your anyone comment. Good luck to you.
What happened today is life with AMBA. It is best to ignore all the noise on this board. If you like AMBA you are going to have to have a lot of patience. It may go up but it is going to take a while for it to happen. My guess is 2-3 quarters with strong beats and great projections. People need a reason to get excited about AMBA again while they still suffer from the GPRO overhang. I own some and want them to go up as my cost basis is well above where it is now. I wish you luck but unfortunately this is dead money for now.
Sorry Northerntrader guy but in reality AMBA has forecast a serious downturn in earnings and revenue. That speaks for itself. I am buried deep in this thing and feel like a fool after making a lot of money on the first run and thinking it could happen again. If it does run up it will not be any time soon. At the moment I am selling what few shares I have left to try and not get hurt any worse than I already have. This has been a painful lesson in the famous phrase "trying to catch a falling knife".
Unfortunately I possess the same expensive stubbornness that you do. It is a painful lesson and one I should have learned long ago.
Thanks Bernie for weighing in. It is not so much something wrong with the system as the stock. AMBA disappointed. That is it. It will take a along time to recover and may never recover. Those of us who fell in love with this stock and its story are fools. Myself included.
I looked back at last quarters guidance. Here is what they said:
Based on information available as of today, Ambarella is offering the following guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2016:
• Revenue is expected to be between $65.0 million and $67.5 million ($68 mil)
• Gross margin on a non-GAAP basis is expected to be between 63.0% and 64.5%
• Net income on a non-GAAP basis is expected to be between $15.0 million and $17.0 million ($21.6 M)
So looking back revenue was close and not really lowballed. But earnings were really lowballed validating your statement. So we languish in the $30's and $40's for a while.
4th quarter was not that bad. But as has been said many times guidance stinks. AMBA is usually a little lite on projections but this is really low. CC will be interesting.
Reading that article I do not believe this replaces AMBA, it just adds a new software program to make playing back video with poorer quality easier to do. Would be interested in other opinions of the article.
Please let us know the source of this news. When I google Taser in Italy all I read is that Tasers are illegal in there.
100% agree. Have been here for a while and watched it go from the mid $20s to $126 and then back down to here. Amba is a great story. Just hope it keeps going.
While I agree with you I still think this article is relevant. A cut from $60 to $50 is not a good thing as I believe a lot of us here (me included) are in at a higher price than $60. Showing two different view points is not a bad thing. Given a choice I would much rather go with the Stifel opinion than the Deutsche Bank. We will know in about 75 hours. Just my $.02.
Ambarella (AMBA) will report earnings later this week, and Stifel’s Kevin Cassidy and his team reiterated a Buy rating Monday, writing that they believe the company “can return to its ‘beat-n-raise’ quarterly reports.”
Cassidy writes that he has zero revenue from GoPro (GRPO) in his estimates for the quarter, and he estimates that the IP surveillance market could make up as much as 50% of sales in the fourth quarter and 40% of revenue in fiscal 2017.
He also sees an opportunity for Ambarella to ramp up its automotive business throughout this year—more proof that the company is transitioning away from being known only as a GoPro supplier.
More detail from his note:
We believe our IP surveillance-related revenue estimates are sufficiently conservative to account for possible deferred spending by the Chinese government. Possible upside to our estimates is in the consumer home monitoring market where ATT, Comcast, Nest, D-Link and AmCrest to name a few have launched Ambarella-based cameras through CY15. Our 4QF16 revenue estimates also include a 9% sequential decline in drone-related revenue. This may prove conservative considering increasing drone popularity and a more clear understanding of drone government regulations. We believe concerns over Intel and Qualcomm entering the drone market are overblown. We view these companies as interested in controlling the drone and not Ambarella’s area of expertise, video compressing and recording. Two much different use cases, in our view. We believe Ambarella has been able to maintain its video processors’ average selling prices and gross margin through providing a very wide range of price/performance trade-offs which the competition cannot match. We expect that following the GoPro-related revenue correction, Ambarella’s top line can resume its +20% annual growth. This growth is driven by new markets the company’s video processing technology is creating such as IP surveillance, wearables, flying and automotive cameras.
This is a little disconcerting. Why going up on low volume with no news? Not a trader or know the technical makeup of a move like this but would love to hear someone weigh in.