Alibaba trajectory of $3 billion net income for 2014 ($669M 1st quarter; $707M 2nd quarter) equates to $1.37 per share. Earnings expected to grow 50% annually for the next 5 yrs. (Facebook @ 31%; Amzn @ 36%) Calculates to $126 per share for Alibaba or $275 Billion. Yup, Alibaba will IPO before June of 2014.
BTW if the growth rate is calculated to be 60% next 5 yrs, market cap is $375 Billion!
If growth rate is 30% annually for the next 10 yrs. market cap is $331 Billion!
If growth rate is 20% annually for the next 10 yrs. market cap is $161 Billion!
Yahoo Forward P/E is 24; Facebook Forward P/E is 44.65; Google Forward PE is 20.73. All of these are advertising based revenue business. So if we take Google's PE and apply it to Yahoo we get $34. Plus $23 Billion for Alibaba net of Taxes at $150Billion Alibaba valuation . Plus $6 Billion for Yahoo Japan. Total is around $63 at the time Alibaba IPOs.
Apple and China Mobile News was the catalyst of yesterdays share rise. Now more than ever, Alibaba will be worth a lot more and IPO soon. Adding more Yhoo and SINA first thing tomorrow. EZ Money, it's like having Pocket Aces and the flop shows an ACE in China Mobile.
Geeez, the market is down and bwld is down on low volume and you're yapping? The uptrend is still intact. You had a good one day, yipppeeee!
"Store of value and demand"? What's next because of the prepers stockpiling gold and silver as well as guns? Keep thinking that.
So the main thesis for Gold is inflation. Even with the unlimited QE, which the gold bulls has touted will cause hyperinflation, has done little to increase inflation. As with Iran, Iran will now be able to sell more oil, which means oil will be going down in price, which means lower inflation plus it is a less dangerous world for now, so "safe heaven" takes a hit as well.
perhaps $400 billion a couple of years after that. The recent China decision on 2 kids, plus easier chinese business opportunity including banking, which I know for sure Alibaba will have a banking arm will do the trick. Alibaba 3% of Chinese GDP going to 5% in the near future.
I see you don't do research like most of the DOPES on message boards. But, the Holidays are approaching so I'm in a charitable mood so I will expound on the cost structure. Here goes:
The biggest-ever U.S. corn harvest is spurring poultry farms to expand chicken production, sending domestic supplies of the meat to a record and cutting costs for buyers from Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) to McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) and Buffalo Wild Wings Restaurants.
Corn fell 50 percent from its peak during last year’s U.S. drought, boosting profit for Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) and other poultry producers and expanding supplies of broiler meat the government says will reach a record this year and next. Wholesale prices will drop 7.1 percent to 92 cents a pound in 2014, according to the median of seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
There was an average of 345.5 million egg-laying hens in September, 2 percent more than a year earlier, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Production of meat from broilers will rise 2.1 percent to a record 37.809 billion pounds this year and 2.5 percent to 38.75 billion pounds in 2014, the USDA says.
It takes as few as eight to 10 weeks from the time an egg is laid until the bird enters the processing plant. That means a farmer can add more hens and expand production in about six months.
To summarize the bullish points I have made in the past and some knowledgeable folks here:
1.Corn (Feed) biggest crop ever- price dropping will continue to move chicken prices down
2 Gaming/tablets- Bdubs adding tablets to more locations- Bdubs already has customers staying longer than other fast casuals- leaving more time to buy wings & Beer
3. US expansion now is focused on East & West coasts, more revenue and volume per store.
4. Liquor- New Red Hook labeled Bdubs beer is selling well and liquor sales are increasing- Great for both the top & Bottom lines- very profitable.
5. Mcdonald mighty wings a flop increasing supply of wings in coming quarters.
In addition, McDonald's mighty wings is a flop. McDonald has been purported to be the cause of wings prices skyrocketing last year due to stockpiling in preparation for the mighty wings launch. No wonder wings prices are going down fast. Of course, the record corn crop also helped by making farmers raise more chickens. A lot of bullish reasons for BWLD indeed.
Spot-market prices for jumbo cut chicken wings have been in a "free fall" in recent weeks, recently dropping to $1.18 a pound from $1.43 on Oct. 29 and down 36% from $1.88 last year. BWLD at the last earnings conference call estimated wing cost @ $1.70 - $1.80. Next earnings estimate is a given BEAT big time! Looking for $200 by July 2014. IMHO BWLD should have a P/S of 2.5. The market will soon come around to my view sooner than later. The market loves a growth and profitable story.
You are the DOPE. You obviously did not notice that the CEO cited the number of UFC Fights and Boxing as well as big sports game affecting attendance at its restaurant. You have no clue. It's like at the poker table where I'm holding pocket aces and you are holding King Three off suite and I'm raising and you dope is reraising, you are now on ignore loser.
Means more more mobile phones for the Chines. Don't forget, the recently announced Bold Economic Reforms means more consumers on two fronts: An extra baby and more urban growth.
There is also a wild card or catalyst for the upside I'm waiting for....when Aaple announce a deal with China Mobile, which should happen in the first quarter of 2014... means for mobile phones for the Chinese. Owning Yahoo and SINA at this juncture is a no brainer.
Alibaba cannot wait beyond the first quarter 2014 as the competition are aggressively trying to replicate Alibaba's capability. The sooner they can raise cash to expand their logistics to open up the country's vast interior and bring hundreds of millions of potential customers faster online the better to hold off the competition and create a company that can also grow outside of China. Disclosure: I'm been long YHOO since $13 and long SINA $50. I'm looking for YHOO to hit $45 helped the improving core by next quarter report and skyroket from there when the Alibaba IPO is announced. SINA which Alibaba owned 18% of WEIBO will hit $120 when the IPO is announced. Alibaba will ultimately own SINA.
Georges St. Pierre sets record for UFC fight PPV which means BWLD Restaurants are packed. Denver and Kansas City game on prime time Sunday will help a lot as well. Then, next week there's the Pacquaio fight as well as the Denver vs New England on Prime Time. Looks like it is looking to make another 5 points gain for next week.
Alibaba bought 18 percent of Weibo/Sina the "tweeter" of China to increase eyeballs to its site. How do you facilitate a global growth for Alibaba that rivals Amzon, Paypal and Ebay? Logical choice is Yahoo.
I wish it would, so I can be an owner of Alibaba for the long term which would be better than Yahoo long term in my opinion.
Intelligent discussion only pls. It would give Amazon a run for its money.
Price/Sales ratio for the industry is .59, .59 X $40 billion sales = $23.6 Billion of which LCC owns 28%, thus LCC market price is 6.44 billion vs $4.60 now or $33 a share.
PE ratio: Estimated rev $2-$3 billion @ conservative 8 pe is $20 billion ave market cap. of which 28% is LCC owned or $5.6 billion vs $4.60 billion now or $28.75 a hare.