Those are all the bear case for oil, which are old news. What is more important is the "tell", which are what actions are being done, like rig count reduction and layoffs as well as cut in cap ex.
You mentioned Iraq. Iraq oil minister yesterday said that "Our estimate is that the prices have reach the bottom. It is very difficult to drop lower than this." Abdul Mahdi told a conference in Kuwait. Abdul Mahdi said that other cartel members had been attempting to broker an output cut in coordination with the world's top crude producer, non-OPEC Russia, to shore up prices. He says, "Venezuela is exerting huge efforts...and there are contacts involving Russia and OPEC to try and cut production," he said. I might at that the Iraq followed Saudi Arabia's increase oil price for the Asian market a couple of days ago...so they are not cutting prices or discount anymore.
At Davos, oil company execs are clashing. AND non-member Oman voiced its first direct public criticism of the OPEC's November decision not to cut production but instead to focus on market share.
Just today, OPEC Secretary General Abdulla al-Badri in Davos says, "The price will not go to $20, or $25, I think the price will stay at where they are now".
See already the Saudi are seeing the result of their Nov. decision not to cut production and that is the curtailment or reduction in supply by shale producers as well as big oil around the world including reduction in cap ex.
1. Bidu will hit the cover off the ball in their earnings report due to growth in China's mobile market.
2. Xiami going forward will benefit BIDU more and more because of Xiami's growth in Chinas as well as the world allowing BIDU to offer search/business to the world outside of China.
3. BIDU by year end will be part of a lot of the ETF inclusion into EEM, MCHI, etc.
If you have been reading my posts you will see the rig counts has dropped dramatically, couple that with layoffs. Plus all of the stimulus going on around the world will stimulate their economies and stimulate oil demand. There will more announcements of rig count dropping and more layoffs. The Saudis are monitoring all of these developments and then they will say OK oil fare price is $80...some will interpret this as production cut is coming.
couple that with the sure reduction in shale oil evidenced by the cut in oil rig counts and layoffs. The Saudis then will say fair price is $80, but oil will only pop to $60 then inch its way to $80 in 12-18 months. The production cut will be announced in less than a month.
Aren't you late to the party for sndk? they already pre-announced and it already tanked. As for ITW, if you don't know how to research, well...............
The chinese mobile market is growing and Xiami is growing not only in China but in the world (ex US). Bidu and Xiami has very close relationship allowing BIDU to compete with Google outside China. To confirm mobile growth, check out China Moble (CHL) stock price action.
Because they have exposure to the oil industry. I just shorted 5k share @ $93.85. This is URI light and they cratered on their warning due to oil industry downturn.
Perception is definitely changing: Just to summarize today's chatter:
1. Some arab nations are criticizing opec's (saudi) strategy of lower oil price.
2. Oil industry experts are predicting rising oil prices "very soon".
3. ECB $50B a month QE is resulting in economic growth perception which means more oil consumption, bullish for oil.
4. ECB $50B a month QE means euro dropping...as the European Union is China's largest trading partner, China's economy will get a boost in the process, again economic growth...bullish for oil.
5. SLB, BHI, BHP cutting rig count to lowest in a year 1340 vs 1391 this time last year and vs 1917 just on November 2014...this is the biggest tell yet that oil supply will decrease for sure changing PERCEPTION of bullish oil going forward.
RESULT: What is coming is a change in tone from the Saudi citing economic growth prospect and decreased oil supply from the above development is coming REAL SOON! Watch oil popping up VERY VERY SOON! Risk reward is on the upside. THINK PERCEPTION!
I might also add that the big rise and fall of oil today is a result of price discovery where oil should be at. But, the defining factor is now the perceived world economic growth due to the stimulus taken by the world. Demand will now pick up as shale oil cap ex is being decreased...hence bullish for oil.
I might add that the layoffs in the oilfields will have some domino effect in the US economy to the downside in the forms of unemployment and GDP that will result in the FED not increasing interest rate for 2015 therefore dollar goes lower as a result.
sentiment for oil going forward for the following reasons:
1. Timed with options expirations, Oil traders know that the ECB will do QE which will increase economic growth in the EU...Economic Growth is bullish for oil consumption. (Swiss action to decouple currency guarantees the QE move by EU)
2. India's rate cut again is bullish for oil as it will increase economic growth.
3. Japan is already doing a lot to increase economic growth.
By the way there are two upcoming events as a consequence of the EU and India's rate cut/QE:
a. China will have to also lower interest rate or take action on the stimulus side...again bullish for economic growth.
b. see below.
All of the above is bullish for oil. Also, the effect on these country's efforts contrary to popular belief will weaken the dollar, which is also bullish for oil.
My prediction: The wild card to add is that the Saudi sensing economic growth initiatives around the world as above in about 3 months will say that $80 price for oil is the fair price. By that time, Supply and Demand forcast will show equilibrium as spring and summer will be upon us. WLL will be in the $40s.
I bet he is now looking for someone to buy this @ $45 a share. While WLL is now a minnow at a mere $3.26 billion market cap swimming among sharks, but with its acquisition of KOG has a lot of assets for long term players like eog, pxd and even clr.
I wish you would stop posting! You do not provide any meaningful information, just BS. I have been observing this board since I bought the shares during the ebola scare at $29 and for the new year, I wish you would shut up! Or provide meaningful information pro or con...but no more BS.
Could not resist to add more because of that info.
Alitrip has been around for at least 10 yrs. and it is very insignificant. Look at the number of employees for both BABA and CTRP and you will see CTRP has more employees. This biz is labor intensive to provide the best service though all are working the technology angle to reduce staff. BABA can't afford to grow in travel on their own as they will need to add employees which will reduce their margin and hurt their stock. IMHO Alitrip set up their own website apart from Taobao to separate the business and expand it via acquisition thru CTRP. Alitrip really does not have any scale and wasn't even mentioned in the IPO process as significant. Alipay is the key and will benefit from CTRP purchase.
Yes, I have been on this stock since April of last year at these levels...but I have doubled down here because of my conviction that Alibaba/Alipay will buy them out in the next 12 months. Jack Ma knows the scale he get can with CTRP/PCLN...no brainer. Look at where Alibaba has been buying last year and you will see the need to gain scale on travel big time.
It is not about Alibaba. It is about Alipay as Travel is mostly financia..., meaning airline, hotel, bus, train cost instead of shopping via the Alibaba sites. You have to think in terms of financial transaction where Alipay is involved. Alitrip will take many years to get the scale CTRP is at now. With Alibaba flushed with cash and they can certainly offer cash or stock and the CEO/Founder of CTRP become a part owner of Alibaba and have position of a President of the travel division and become a board member as well. In the past, Alibaba could not afford CTRP. Now with the IPO...well it is cheap for them to gain scale now and lock in the future in travel instead of a slow pace to get there.