A look at the FINRA bond transactions indicates someone has an open order to buy $1,000,000+ of the 2018 bonds at 14 cents on the dollar. Too bad FINRA does not report the actual value of the large transactions, just that it was over a million dollars. Hopefully they were multiple million dollars.
! agree Ultra.
The numbers presented does not seem to justify high-grading gold. At today's prices, they will generate less cash with high-grading than with their "normal" ore. They mentioned the decision to high grade was based on current price trends and "management's expectations of metals prices in 2016". Are they effectively speculating on future commodity prices?
I'm sure analysts will be all over this matter. TC better have a solid explanation with supporting numbers for their decision to high-grade Gold.
You have heard people say that the stock has been affixed a trading halt code of "T1" by the Nasdaq - but what does this mean exactly?
T1 trading halt code - stop signThe answer - the Nasdaq has halted trading in your stock due to the fact that "material" news will be released soon.
"Material" news could be a multitude of different things. "Material" news could mean that the company is being bought out. "Material" news could mean that the company is about to report that
they are under investigation by the SEC. "Material" news could mean a number of different things that could be either good news or bad news for the company.
When the news has been released, then the trading halt code will change to T.2, which means that the stock is still halted but that the news has been released.
Eventually, the stock will be given a code of T.3, which means "Halt - Resumption Times".
This means that the news has been fully disseminated and there has now been a time specified as to when the stock will re-open for trading. There are actually two times specified by the Nasdaq:
Q4 production was a little disappointing despite claim they achieved 60,000 tpd production level.
I was surprised to see only 60 million pounds payable copper for 2016 in their guidance. Is that a typo? We will see.
Last year, production numbers were announced on January 19th, 2015. They also included guidance for 2015 in the announcement.
Under normal circumstances, I would agree that a decision should be based on a thorough economic analysis of the different options. But in today's uncertain world, where commodity prices are crashing, where the economy is very uncertain, and where the balance sheet is deteriorating; The decision making process must also include a risk analysis for the survival of the company based on each option.
The commodity crash combined with the crash in the junk bond market will last for several quarters. This gives TC a better opportunity to buy back their unsecured bonds at discounted rates.
IMO, Based on the poor balance sheet, they should not spend 50 million on new crusher in 2016...especially if they can get production to 60,000 tpd by Q1. Cash should be deployed to reduce debt, and reduce interest payments.
Ultra, TC management already knows their ability to repurchase their bonds. I doubt you can provide some new revelations on this matter to them, but go ahead, and let us know how it goes. They are working on it. I just hope they can execute.
Ultra, a meaningful price recovery in moly and copper will happen, but the big question for TC is when will it start? I just don't see it happening in H1 2016. TC is not in a position to just wait for the price recovery.
My biggest concern is TC is currently burning cash, and they need to stop the bleeding. Their cash balance after Q4 will not be pretty. They cannot continue to bleed cash. They need to get the balance sheet under control, and communicate how they plan to do this. The permanent secondary crusher is dead for now. They need to cut capital expenses to the bone. They need to buy back as much of the unsecured bonds as possible to reduce debt and interest payments. I don't want to see a new gold stream unless it goes towards buying back the unsecured bonds.
TC had 217 million at end of Q3.
They will not benefit from tax refund, and revenue from sale of inventory in Q4 as the had in Q3. They will also have capex for permanent crusher in Q4. Metal prices were down in Q4.
With this in mind, what will TC have in the kitty at end of the year? I suspect it will be under 200 million, but how much under?
With this in mind, TC may not provide the green light to move ahead on the permanent crusher in Q1.
Private, do you think they were going to process 60ktpd through the temporary crushers? I don't think so? There are currently aiming for 15ktpd of ore through the temporary crushers. I believe Perron said payback was 2-3 years.