Of course there is minimal risk to BTU defaulting. The problem is the bondholders will get their interest payments, and there isn't much left over for the shareholders. Hopefully that will change soon.
A 10 cent drop in copper price reduces cash flow by 8 million dollars a year. Undesirable, but not a show stopper. Key is to advance MM commissioning and implementing a plan to revive TC mine.
Followup from P.Solly.
My previous email should have said we do not have “significant” stockpiles at TC Mine compared to Endako Mine. You are correct and per the 10-K we have 5.2 million pounds of molybdenum stockpiles at TC Mine. We expect to process all of the stockpile in 2014, but may not sell all of it in 2014. There is a possibility that a portion of the 5.2 million pounds of stockpile would be sold in Q1 2015, but we have not provided sales guidance for either 2014 or 2015. Please let me know if you would like me to call you to discuss. If so, please provide your phone number.
P. Solly's response to my question on the existence of stockpile material at TC mine.
My apologies for the delay, but I’ve been out of town since Monday and today is my first day back in the office. We do not have stockpiles at the Thompson Creek Mine like we do at the Endako Mine. In addition, we do not expect to have an inventory build at the Thompson Creek Mine for material that could be sold in 2015. As a result, when we are out of exposed ore for Phase 7, which we expect to be sometime in Q4 2014, we expect to put the mine on care and maintenance. Our 2014 production guidance for the Thompson Creek Mine is 14 – 16 million pounds of molybdenum. As a reminder, the cost for the stripping for Phase 8 is approximately $80-$100 million. We will continue to look for economically viable options to recommence the stripping, but for now the plan is care and maintenance by year-end.
Ultra wrote….As for TC stockpile, I have confirmed with the Company they intend to "mill everything that has been mined".
The company's response does not mean there is a stockpile. Where is there documented that there is a stockpile?
The 10% drop in the Canadian dollar translates to an extra $C50 million in annual revenue from MM and Endako. There will be some increase in expenses paid in US$, but should be much less than the $C50 million.