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Axion Power International Inc. Message Board

strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 23, 2014 1:25 PM Member since: May 1, 2012
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  • strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 23, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    .
    .
    .Disease free survival is effectively meaningless, it is overall survival for 5 years, 10 years,
    AND THEN compare it to the competitor head to head, not placebo.
    .
    .
    .. personally I think the stock overvalued at $ 100
    not short, not long,
    .
    simply follow cancer treatments and thought I'd share my thoughts.
    .

  • strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 by strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 23, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    I would be very cautious here. There is not enough information
    on the testing to make an educated decision.
    .
    " The primary endpoint of the trial was disease free survival (DFS). The results of the trial demonstrated that treatment with neratinib resulted in a 33% improvement in disease free survival versus placebo. "
    .
    Disease free survival is effectively meaningless, it is overall survival for 5 years,
    .
    When those tests are in let me know.
    .
    This is in its infancy, and the stock price should reflect that.
    .
    Good luck to all, but mostly to the cancer patients,
    lets hope the drug works for them, we should know in another 5 or so years.
    .
    .

  • Reply to

    NS 999: Generation 2.0

    by strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 22, 2014 12:20 PM
    strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 22, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    Our development team has conducted around 300 simulated switcher cycles on a new batterypower
    system at the company’s testing lab in Roanoke, Va. In a partnership with Norfolk Southern,
    scientists at Penn State University’s Transportation Institute have done separate testing.
    “Our testing shows that the systems are working as designed and that the batteries should have a
    long life in the locomotive,” said Gibson Barbee, our senior energy engineer.
    Mechanical Department employees at the Juniata Locomotive Shop, who assembled the original
    NS 999, are outfi tting the updated locomotive. If all goes as planned, the new and improved 999 will
    be ready for fi eld testing in the summer of 2014.

  • strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 by strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 22, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    2014 sustainability report is out
    page 35

    NS 999: Generation 2.0
    THE NEXT STEP IN BATTERY-POWERED LOCOMOTIVES
    In the quest to conserve fuel and reduce emissions, Norfolk Southern has pioneered industry
    efforts to develop battery-powered locomotives.
    Currently, the company is working on the second generation of our NS 999 electric prototype
    four-axle switcher locomotive. The NS 999, built on a reused 1969 Electro-Motive Diesel GP 38
    platform, is designed to switch railcars in yard operations and is the fi rst all-battery locomotive of its
    type. In addition to the NS 999, the company continues to research development of a hybrid electric
    six-axle long-haul locomotive.
    Since work on the NS 999 began in 2007, Norfolk Southern has received three U.S. patents related
    to locomotive battery technologies. The latest, issued in February 2014, covers designs for a hybrid
    electric line-of-road locomotive equipped with a regenerative braking system to capture and reuse
    energy generated during dynamic braking. In one confi guration, a battery-tender could be
    positioned between two diesel-electric locomotives to store the captured energy, using braking
    energy to recharge batteries and to power traction motors. A locomotive’s traction motors, which
    generate pulling power, are used in dynamic braking on hilly terrain to maintain safe speeds. On
    conventional locomotives, the braking energy generated—up to 3 megawatts of power—is blown
    off as heat through a resistor grid. Our eco-friendly hybrid approach to capture and reuse this
    energy to power traction motors would conserve diesel fuel and reduce emissions.
    Since publicly introducing the NS 999 in 2009, the company has continued testing and refi ning the
    prototype to resolve technical operating challenges. The next-generation NS 999 will feature
    advanced lead-carbon hybrid batteries that replace conventional lead-acid batteries; a new
    modular container system to house the batteries; and a more technologically advanced battery
    management system.

  • Reply to

    ePower Numbers

    by bradskyb Jul 11, 2014 10:29 PM
    strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 11, 2014 11:18 PM Flag

    """" I am also assuming that a second ePower overhaul in this case would consist only of a battery replacement, as opposed to a complete drivetrain swap,... """"
    .
    I do not understand why or how you could make that assumption.
    .
    They have a 'new' drivetrain, and you assume it will do 600,000 miles without rebuild,
    .
    simply replace the batteries and the drive train will do another 600,000 miles.
    .
    WHAT MAKES YOU BELIEVE the drive train will do 1.2 million miles ?
    .
    ,
    I think it very hard to make that leap, I see nothing to back up a reasonable
    approach here to say the E Power drive train will do 1.2 million miles without overhaul.

    .
    .

  • Reply to

    ePower Numbers

    by bradskyb Jul 11, 2014 10:29 PM
    strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 11, 2014 11:11 PM Flag

    Thank you for an intelligent response.
    .
    But you do not appear to disagree with the following:
    .
    John Petersen tells us " $50,000 for a conventional rebuild " or " $100,000 on our rebuild "...
    .
    SO :
    .
    1. your average trucker or firm, has to pay an additional $ 50,000 up front per vehicle.
    How many of these do you think will take the gamble ?.
    .
    WHAT IS THE GAMBLE:
    .
    2. no one knows how many miles they will get out of the vehicle or the batteries
    before major overhaul is needed.
    .
    My guess, hunch, speculation - remains the same:
    .
    EPOWER is in its infancy, it will have to run say 5 trucks on different routes,
    5 or 6 years before there is any
    significant purchasing. I am not sure any trucker or trucking company is plugging
    an additional $ 50,000 into an experimental rig without at least 600,000 of miles
    on a tested rig. .
    .
    Seems E Power is very much in its infancy, and it will be another 5 years
    for it before any significant results may be published.
    .
    5 trucks at 100,000 miles a year with a full load
    with test results presented.
    .
    YOU as an Independent trucker - WOULD YOU risk the initial 50,000
    investment not knowing the results OF AT LEAST 5 Trucks,
    run 100,000 miles a year for the next 5 years ?
    .
    I doubt it.
    .
    Well just my guess and opinion of course. Could be wrong but I really do not think so.
    .
    Good luck to all.
    .
    . Less

  • strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 11, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    John Petersen indicates fuel savings may be 6,000 to 8,000 gallons per year with E Power.
    .
    6,000 x say $ 4.00 per gallon = $ 24,000.
    .
    John Petersen tells us " $50,000 for a conventional rebuild " or " $100,000 on our rebuild "...
    .
    It appears at best to be a 2 year ROI ( return on investment ).
    .
    BUT:
    .
    1. they have to pay an additional $ 50,000 up front per vehicle.
    .
    2. no one knows how many miles they will get out of the vehicle or the batteries
    before major overhaul is needed.
    .
    My guess, hunch, speculation -
    .
    EPOWER is in its infancy, it will have to run trucks 5 or 6 years before there is any
    significant purchasing. I am not sure any trucker or trucking company is plugging
    an additional $ 50,000 into an experimental rig without at least 600,000 of miles
    on a tested rig. .
    .
    Seems E Power is very much in its infancy, and it will be another 5 years
    for it before any significant results may be published.
    .
    Well just my guess and opinion of course. Could be wrong but I really do not think so.
    .
    Good luck to all.
    .
    .

  • strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 by strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 Jul 11, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    I read recently a post by John Petersen, and I fear the numbers he
    presents indicate E POWER Will be an absolute failure.
    .
    Am I missing something, here is the quote:

    " We expect to end up in the 9 to 10 mpg range for the 55,000 to 65,000 pound weight class on road courses in Northern Kentucky. Our initial target market is operators who own tractors that have accumulated ~600,000 miles and need major overhauls. Their choice will be pretty simple. Spend $50,000 for a conventional rebuild that will consume 20,000 gallons of fuel a year or spend $100,000 on our rebuild and slash annual fuel consumption by 6,000 to 8,000 gallons."

    .
    If a truck is getting 9 miles per gallon.
    And if the truck consumes 20,000 gallons of fuel per year.
    9 x 20,000 = 180,000 miles per year.
    We can assume then the truck is running about lets say 150,000 miles a year.
    .
    It appears after 600,000 miles the truck will need an overhaul.
    .
    So the question is does the EPOWER truck too need an overhaul after about 600,000 miles.
    Possibly so, there is nothing I am aware of that indicates the Axion Battery and E Power drive
    will go more than 600,000 miles.
    .
    My bet Axion and E Power would be glad to get 600,000 miles out of a battery set.
    They literally have zero testing in this as far as I know; certainly they have not run a truck
    more than 50,000 miles so far, as far as I know.
    .
    CONTINUED NEXT POST

  • strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 by strangerthingshavehappenedzbop2 May 1, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    If I read it correctly, they want permission to do a reverse split anywhere between the
    minimum 1 for 20 and the maximum 1 for 50.

    If 200 ml outstanding a 1 - 20 results in 10 million shares outstanding

    a 1 - 50 results in 4 million shares outstanding.

    ( so if you own 100,000 shares 1 - 20 means you will own 5,000 shares

    if you own 100,000 shares 1 - 50 means you will own 2,000 shares )

    Now WHY ONE EARTH would they want only 10 million shares outstanding.
    One would imagine they would be very happy with 20 or 30 ml shares out.

    EVEN CRAZIER why on earth would they want only 4 million shares outstanding.

    The 1 - 50 tells me they really anticipate a stock price decline.

    ---------------------- AND WHY NOW ???

    Why would they announce and do this now without one smidgeon of news
    with a promised meeting coming up ?

    GRANDVILLE SAID THIS IN APRIL 1 2014

    """ Well I am going to mention here in my closing remarks than it’s a short 44 days to the next call. And we’re looking forward to that call because we’re looking forward to update everybody on how that is going and progress that we’re making """"

    An announced possible 1 for 50 reverse split tells me one thing, there is no news.

    -------------------------- VERY VERY FISHY ?

    .

AXPW
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