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Vical Incorporated Message Board

strawgold 34 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Dec 12, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Short interest falls dramatically

    by strawgold Aug 20, 2014 11:50 AM
    strawgold strawgold 5 hours ago Flag

    I sold mine (all of it) almost at the (artificial) high as soon as I saw the short stats soar so I hope you did the same since you said you sold some.

    I too think a buyout is worth holding some for if you had a large position rather than sell it all. Right now, the short stats are back in the "buy" mode for me, but as I said before, I think it will dip back before it gets better and I'm not biting yet. If it does, I will buy a few hundred shares as a gamble.

    Keep your objective. I agree entirely that Rytary would be a tidy asset, and so will be the Herpes drug if it proves out, but nothing will matter unless they get their ducks in a row and clean up their mess. And the mess is substantial, complex - and the time factor to bring all of this in alignment is awful. Their financials can't help but suffer from this latest manufacturing setback - and their legal costs will be driven up from the lawsuits. I'm surprised it's held up as well as it has, but the low volume tells at least a partial tale on that.

  • The shorts made their millions right on time - and have now covered after the rout that they knew about several months before it happened. Inside trading at its finest, boys. Congratulations on your coup and skinning most of those teetering on the edge with margin plays.

    It is now time for me to think about buying back in as obviously the lawsuits aren't scaring the smart money this month. It will probably drop again before it levels out - that's what I'm waiting for and I'm willing to pass until it does drop once more even though I intend to get back in.

    This company has a LOT of problems in its management. But the sector is what will keep it afloat and a buyout by a larger company is entirely possible and may cure a multitude of ills and sins.

  • strawgold strawgold Aug 6, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    It really isn't far-fetched to believe that people who take short positions do so because they know the stock is going to receive bad news that will affect it for many months. If there were even a cursory investigation into it, it would very likely reveal insider trading on an arrogant scale. I say arrogant, because it's quite obvious that no one will be looking at it.

    People with sensitive knowledge very likely knew for several months that IPXL would not be reinstated this go around with the FDA. If they were "working with the FDA" and especially with a special task force, they had to have timely knowledge going on all along. During the CC, the pointed questions about the reopening were dodged, and dodged without much finesse. I was listening - and that, when I saw the short interest rise so fast is when I bailed out rather than watching it tank again - this same scenario has taken my money time after time until I learned to look for the plain signals. The stats are always a month late, and I always wondered why that should be so, but it's no mystery now. Rules are for other people and so is information.

    Further, the 100,000 share drop by one of the directors didn't bespeak the actions of someone who had confidence the facility would be reopened - otherwise, that close to the happening, he wouldn't have sold under any circumstances as these people do not live hand to mouth.

    The massive, millions of shares sudden "short runup" in such a tiny window of time "without" an ulterior motive is what might be considered "far fetched".

    I'm not taking the bait for awhile. I did actually think they were making progress by establishing a task force, but now I think this this is far from over. I doubt Rytary will come out on time unless they do some fancy footwork.

  • strawgold strawgold Aug 6, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Couric: it definitely was not an "unknown", and the gargantuan rise in short selling in just a few weeks before the bad news was done by people who had advance knowledge and took advantage of it.

    The big question is now: Where is the SEC? It doesn't take a psychic to figure this one out - it's in the stats, black and white. The short sellers made millions as they cover and in my view it isn't over yet. The volume on the "recovery" from $22 range is low. That means it's another head feint.

    I wonder now if the financials can be believed either. I got out entirely based on what I know about short interest, and while I am still interested in the company long term if they can ever sort this mess out properly, but even putting an FDA savvy board member on the job (Mary Pendergast) didn't do the trick.

    Helenask: you seem to have picked up on what I was trying to say with my "short interest" posts. I have lost a small fortune to these types of inside traders but I did learn from it.

  • strawgold by strawgold Aug 1, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    Vaxfectin is being looked at by other companies as an adjuvant, and they are confident some deals might be made in that area.

    Herpes trial design has several things going for it that the competition doesn't have, one of which is a 60 day shedding follow-up compared to 14 days for others. The longer time frame obviously suggests better control if it is successful. The "safety data" thus far is satisfactory. They expect interim data by mid-2015 on the completed enrollment. If that data is good, they expect to rapidly begin a phase III design which they feel can catch them up if not surpass the race to the finish line with other companies. (I'm most interested in the 60 day extended data collection which is obviously a better way to do it) They also want to keep the Herpes program in house rather than seeking a partner, which also suggests they feel it has a strong chance of success - and no need to share the pie with a partner.

    They have already had one failure (melanoma) that they didn't disclose properly, so it doesn't pay to place too much trust in any of the hired guns. But his CC was a good one, supported by much stronger financials. (if they weren't tweaked) (I've been around the rosie with all of this before) I did raise my position last spring based on the last CC and sold a small portion of it this morning to protect myself as we are going into a dangerous time of the year, not to mention other danger factors with Wall Street right now. But I feel this company has potential.

  • Reply to

    SEC where art thou?

    by strawgold Jul 15, 2014 6:58 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jul 30, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    Yes, but the rapid, big volume short interest over just a couple of months was the most "interesting." Those are the guys who don't need luck - they have information. Shorts are going to make a virtual killing right now when they decide to cover because I have a feeling this free fall is far from over.

  • Reply to

    How big would the Herpes market be?

    by howaboutgold Jul 25, 2014 3:25 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jul 28, 2014 11:31 PM Flag

    It's a large segment of "unmarried women age 45 - 50" that have it. Between 50 - 70%. It's almost unbelievable - so don't take my word for it. Google it up and take the med site stats for yourself. So the market for a vaccine that actually works will be huge and ever growing. No matter how it's priced, it will account for a tidy revenue stream for the developer.

  • Reply to

    if its being driven down by the unhedged short

    by chippydummonk Jul 24, 2014 12:56 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jul 26, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    Those are the two I have on ignore; novasomes who was booted from the board for spamming, and his immediate reincarnation alter-idiot, spammerII or some such name. I ignored him immediately when I saw what he was doing, so I don't even remember his new name, but you know who I mean. Now watch him return under 10 more aliases to down vote me properly. Not worth talking about.

    But the July 31st date IS worth talking about - because, in addition to the financial report, it also says they are going to announce "the details on independent and partnered development programs" later that same day in the conference call. The "independent" is very likely the Herpes II program, as they have said they are going it alone on that one. If it's positive news, the stock will go up to the next support level, and the action of this past week might be an indicator of short covering, since the short interest dropped dramatically this past month.

  • Reply to

    if its being driven down by the unhedged short

    by chippydummonk Jul 24, 2014 12:56 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jul 25, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    This is strictly wishful thinking in all likelihood, but they are announcing earnings "before" the open, rather than "after the close" which might be more good news about the bottom line at least - and since it was good last time, this might be a catalyst to recovery. If they announce good interim results in one of the trials during the CC, it might secure us for awhile.

  • strawgold by strawgold Jul 15, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    I wonder, in light of the recent news release about the "price fixing" subpoena, if the SEC might take a fast peek into the very recent 100,000 share sell by Mr Hsu. Of course not. Nothing unusual about that.

  • Reply to

    Or undervalued

    by chippydummonk Jul 9, 2014 3:54 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jul 10, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    Well, anyway we have the naughty satisfaction of knowing we are driving old NovaNuts bananas because he's on ignore… away, Nova! Post away!

  • Reply to

    Or undervalued

    by chippydummonk Jul 9, 2014 3:54 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jul 9, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    Abstract dated June, 2013 - let's see if it will let me post the main info: this is promising in addition to the Herpes II application, it would surely seem.

    Vaxfectin Adjuvant improves antibody responses to a DNA vaccine encoding the Measles virus

  • strawgold by strawgold Jul 7, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Are you still with this stock?

  • strawgold strawgold Jul 1, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    Yesterday the high volume continued as the price ascended. If the volume continues to rip as the pps inches up, it would seem to be a recovery. If short interest is getting wind of good interim trial results they could be the ones starting to cover, driving it up. the short interest fell last month and if this holds true, will fall again this month - all good signs if continued.

  • Reply to

    Singer getting out?

    by bigt_again Jun 27, 2014 7:00 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jun 28, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    I do tend to agree after thinking it over. I saw this once myself when one of them (in much worse shape than this one) was dropped from the Russell 2000 but hadn't thought of it that way when this happened. Not short covering since the price didn't move upward, so not much else really makes sense so suddenly. Thanks for reminding me.

  • strawgold strawgold Jun 28, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    It was a strange day of volume with little sense other than the "rebalancing" suggestions posted here. I did see this happen once before, but the company was in much worse shape than VICL is - and did lose its Russell 2000 standing.

    However, for every "sell" there is also a "buy" - which in this case suggests an "accumulation" of dumped shares by those buying, since there wasn't appreciable price increase. If it had been short covering, it would have driven the price up.

    Watching these guys manipulate stock is one of the 7 Wonders of the World.

  • Reply to

    Singer getting out?

    by bigt_again Jun 27, 2014 7:00 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jun 28, 2014 12:04 AM Flag

    sweater pup: That is indeed a possibility and the right time, too. But I prefer to hope that it is accumulation of float by a few well placed sneak trades ahead of news. Of course, there isn't much info available to us peons that is current or meaningful, but from what I could determine, the float now is approximately 3 million less than it was during the month.

  • strawgold strawgold Jun 27, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    The "short interest" is down slightly for the month, too, (which is always a month old) but not enough to suggest short covering yet - UNLESS something spectacular has just happened behind the "closed door" between "them" and "us".

  • The latest short stats were released this morning. I'm trying to figure out how a share price can keep rising on "low" volume while the short interest keep rising too…..I just don't know….it's not computing to me.

    06/13/2014 7,172,022
    05/30/2014 6,996,718
    05/15/2014 6,613,741
    04/30/2014 5,178,558
    04/15/2014 1,984,253
    03/31/2014 1,732,401
    03/14/2014 1,733,745

  • Reply to

    stock price

    by courac Jun 19, 2014 3:39 PM
    strawgold strawgold Jun 19, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    couric - far be it from me to belittle a rising pps - I'm just having a hard time believing it will hold - because nothing is adding up to support a rise in price. The volume isn't all that large, and I checked the bid/ask sizes - bid 100, ask 300. These are small lots. Now, to my jaded mind, that isn't exactly something that should be pushing the price up.

    I'm not biting yet.

1.27+0.02(+1.60%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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