Regulatory issues may slow this down, but this is the reality. Chinese, Asia, think long term. the US which at one time was revered for its long term thinking and investing can only think of its next meal. Watch the Chinese slowly take control of this opportunity.
Yos will be approved, but since fda under immense pressure to delay and the mfr. has little interest in complying with fda requirements since it is an otc supplier, it will be a while. that is the bad news.
now for the good news. this drug will sell. it can be priced at a premium and it will sell, but modestly, perhaps a million daily customers. or it can be priced low and it will capture ten to fifteen million customers per day. thus, it can't lose. i prefer the low cost option because it will compete easily with coated aspirin and it will get many people who use coated aspirin to switch to yos. at .50 per tablet and 20 million users per day, go figure. lets capture the entire market and make bayer buy for $30 per share. they will do it.
this company is not a tech blockbuster, but it is a steady producer of quality products. barring a total market meltdown, there a few surer bets in the market. at this market cap it is a good acquisition target and as sales ramp up it will easily slide into the 1.5 range. few stocks offer 400% gains so easily. buy now and retire in 2016.
you are the pump and dump artist. you are playing the oldest game in the investing book. short a stock that has risen quickly.
pozn is a good trading investment for you because it will rise and fall like every small cap does.
it is also a good long term investment. and i think you can see that this board is dominated by level headed longs not the short term traders you like to think you can manipulate.
I generally agree with hofno with one important comment. No one should expect commercialization in 2015. The reason is that the original supplier is an over the counter producer, has many other customers, and thus has little incentive to act quickly on the issues raised by the FDA. Similarly, the FDA is notorious for delays and is likely under political pressure to slow down the approval by outsiders who will lose markets when this is approved. The company will tell you that sorting out the production issue will likely take place in the fourth quarter of this year. So the future is rosy but there is considerable time left before approval. It is important to be realistic on expectations so that shorts aren't given information to use against the company. Launch will likely take place in 2016 but later in the year. It is true the company needs this time to create a successful launch so it is not a negative but the delays fit with the new launch plan of the company.
you are playing into short hands by predicting something which is unlikely. you are setting false deadlines which shorts will use to scare you into selling. i am certain of my information on a 4th quarter and perhaps 1st quarter 2016 fix for manufacturing..
Pozn has been working with a second supplier for several months. The second supplier has had a recent inspection by the FDA. While there may be some delays in this process, the shorts are providing mis information to get you to exit the stock. Pozn provided an update on the launch based upon its view that with either the old or a new supplier the timeline of a 2016 launch is realistic and expected.
pozn has been working on a new supplier for several months. This issue will be resolved no later than the first quarter next year.
Please note that the manufacturing issue is expected to be resolved during the 4th quarter this year or 1st quarter next year. So don't let longs create unjustified expectations or shorts scare you about delays. if there is no action by the end of the first quarter next year, then you might begin to question what is going on. The next focal point is the merger which will take place in the third or fourth quarter. This is a medium term winner. Just sit back and relax.
There will be no news from the FDA until the fourth quarter or first quarter 2016. Don't let shorts create unjustified expectation, for the purpose of making you think something bad is happening. The FDA is in no hurry and the supplier is an orc supplier. It has planty of othe business and will take its time. But the mfg problem will be solved and pozn will have its ducks in order to market the drug effectively.
I own two other mining cos, much smaller and in Canada. I thought they would appreciate after government approval and permit issuance. They did not. Instead they declined.
I say this not because I think this will be the case for PLM, but as a lesson on where the market is on mining. The two companies I still own are obscure and will only recover with a massive new interest in mining shares. PLM will appreciate in spite of the bad market. The difference is the size of the project, the proven quality of reserves, the mix of metals and the backing of Glencore.
Why isn't PLM appreciating now? First the mining sector is out of fashion. Secondly, and more importantly, most investors and this includes seasoned ones, are totally uninformed about the eis process. They won't think there is progress until the final eis is issued. There will still be some skepticism at that point because of potential problems with the permitting process. So we are several months from appreciation.
This is really a good thing for long term believers. Because the project will move forward and at some point this will have a billion market cap or be purchased by Glencore. Visions of 20 per share are out of the question. In the market of the past yes, but not now. Short term trading prevails and if this appreciates there will be lots of sellers.. But in two to three years this will be a double or triple for certain.
POZN management changes and proposed are viewed positively by the market. But we must be realistic about the path forward. As those changes occur, there will be a lot of space for pricing fluctuation. We are seeing that now with the shorts shrill messages about the viability of Y. This is all expected in a market with little regulation, deceptive information fed by short sellers, naive investors and unjustified expectations.
Things long term investors should consider:
1. The recent run up is great but historically runs don't go in a straight line. There are pauses, ups and downs. We are seeing that now. Don't panic if you believe in the future of Pozn.
2. Merger activities will start in the third quarter. Expect considerable debate and misinformation during this period. If you think the merger is positive, ignore the noise.
3. Note that the manufacturing issue remains and will not be settled quickly. Expect resolution in the 4th quarter or 1st quarter of 2016. The issue is not whether the issue will be resolved but when. If the original supplier is the best route, this will take time. FDA is overburdened and never in a hurry. The supplier is an over the counter drug mfr, thus Y is small potatoes and they aren't going to kill themselves to resolve the issues. If a new supplier is used, this will also take time. the good thing about this route is that POZN will be choosing a facility that has been recently inspected, making the inspection issue less of a factor.There are other options but these will also take time.So be realistic about the time frame for settling this issue. The shorts will use any delays or info regarding problems with the original supplier, to scare longs. But remember it is not if, it is when a supplier will be approved. Given mgmts interest selling direct this timing gives them time to get organized.
4. Approval of Y is not if but when. This is evident from the action by FDA. Any delays of any sort will be exploited by short sellers.
Pozn has run from 6.5 to 12.66 in a very short period of time. That is almost a double and many traders and long term holders will cash out under such circumstances. While historically investors looked at the long term horizon for a company, now investors have a more short term mentality. Thus, a pullback is to be expected as traders and many long term investors take profits.
Notice that the board started seeing bashing as soon as the stock went to 12. This is also common as hedge funds and traders view such quidk run ups and ripe for shorting and they employ people to start peppering talk sites with so called soft bashing. This is best exhibited by one of the new posters on this board. His or her posts are meant to begin raising questions in your mind about the stability of the stock, using, initially a soft approach. As the stock declines their voices usually become more strident, trying to force a route of the stock
It is likely we will see a few more days of turbulence before the stock settles down.
Two pending catalysts, manufacturing clearance and drug approval, offer longs some protection against much further deterioration of the stock. Shorts know about these catalysts and this somewhat restrains their behavior at this time.
Biotechs are especially ripe for short attacks because of the FDA approval process. The FDA is overstretched, cautious by nature and thus there are a lot of opportunities for shorts to attack. Delays almost always cause short attacks and here the failure of the FDA to promptly fix the mfrg problem gives the shorts an opportunity to attack POzn.
Over time, this stock should continue to perform well but for the short term shorts will likely make some money.