While Belphen appears to be our near term catalyst, the results of off label dr prespcriptions and arna studies should dont provide much insight as to the results. if the efficacy is greatly enhance one would expect some leaks that would drive shares higher.
Approval of OREX, articles like the one from SA will jump on this event, and continued slow uptake on sales will give shorts their last chance before Bphen and they will use it. How many longs will stay the course while the general market climbs to new hights. this is not a bash.
I consulted with IR throughout the approval process and have since tried to communicate with senior mgmt. In the few successful conversations, I found the responses guarded, the responders inexperienced. In a recent attempt i tried to talk to audet about the lack of insider buying and left several messages. no response.
Interested in market savvy comments on current stall at 6. After seven years in this stock, i started buying at 6, but the rotation up and down seems to have stopped. any guesses why.
I think all longs are frustrated by the slow uptake on B. The promise of Bphen gives us hope but this should be tempered by the reality that it is already available to Drs and there has been no reported uptick in use of B because of it. While AF has been merciless on the prospects of B, he is voicing the common wall street belief that B is going to struggle.
What the roll out seems to indicate is that Arna is still a development stage company. It is luck it has a good partner and an approved drug, but revenues are so limited that it doesnt make a dent in current expenditures.
In dealing with Arna employees over the past several years I have gotten the impression that they are insular and interested in moving their pipeline forward, but have a bureaucratic mentality and will spend their precious resources without the discipline necessary to protect shareholders.
If the cash holds out, which is doubtful, long enough for the smoking trials to prove themselves, there may be hope for the big payoff we all desire. But in the ensuing two years, it appears the cash will dissipate and the stock will languish, resulting in the need for dilution. The employees wont feel the pinch but we will.
Please tell me i am wrong and why. I think there is an eventual good story here, but not without shareholders waiting a very long time for a good return.
If Orex gets approved on Monday, it appears the winds are blowing in their favor in Europe. While I am fully invested in ARNA i have taken a smaller position in Orex based on their chances for Europe approval. Orex will struggle here for some time, but will have a clear playing field in Europe - and without all the machinations we have seen regarding european approval of Belviq.
having invested in this company many years ago and having suffered through so many setbacks i would think i would buy into your thesis out of shear desperation. but only desparate people would do so. we need to focus on getting this company to quit its wild spending and profligate options. get real, there is no buyout.
Shareholderss need to focus on cost cutting and slowing down options. A buyout is not going to happen. But arna will continue to overcompensate and overstaff without outside focus. Help with arna's survival by voting no to options and a proposal to begin cutting costs.
agree that if esai is the pursuer they will try to buy cheap, but dont think your scenario is plausible from my knowledge of japanese business practices. i think they are just taking advantage of the situation as it exists - if they are interested at all.
1. they are not going to buy arna.
2. if anyone buys arna dont expect more that a 50 to 70% premium. just look at the avg premium for small biotech's.
3. while we may believe in the pipeline, smart asset mgrs will wait to see real value in belviq and further development of pipeline products.
4. expectations need to be toned down. neither vvus or arna have shown the kind of growth that inspiires acquirers. arna's only hope is a dramatic increase in sales over the next serveral months.
5. any acquirer will be very concerned about the rate of expenditures of arna. they have done nothing to cut costs and have sent their seemingly incompetent investor relations manager to live in Switzerland. I guess she really impressed the regulators there.
unfortunately, by the time arna increases sales to a good level, the market will be going down. arna has been at the mercy of bad timing, from approval on.
The price action is strange. It appears to have become a trading stock, with continuous ups and downs.
Is the investment community out of the obesity space? Why isn't AF touting this company?
he will sell at 6.5 if it will secure his role. he is not about shareholder value. he loves his work and that is all that matters to him.
First, Mgmt has shown it is interested in the science and their jobs, not shareholder value.
Second, Mgmt knows that they are depleting cash quickly and this is not sustainable.
Third, a buyout at any cost, takes care of first and second. So if this fairytale plays out dont expect much over current market value.
Sorry, i have a very dim view of mgmt dating back to their poor handling of approval process and lack of insider buying.
i believe that your wait and see perspective is valid. however, the market doesn't see it, in spite of the apparent death of vvus. sure take up of the drug will be slower for a "lifestyle" drug, but weight loss is also on the minds of every woman and many men in the US. so there is a valid concern about whether arna can overcome the reluctance of drs and the preference for diet and exercise.
at one time i thought arna was under the total control of wall street manipulators, but after a year the sales are not impressive and this is the bottom line.
i wish i had been a short. they and the traders are the ones making money on this stock. i believe that most of us have fallen in love with this stock to our detriment as balanced investors.