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Core Molding Technologies Inc. Message Board

streetsmart_player 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 5:03 PM Member since: Apr 27, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Closed at $13.70 in 2013

    by bridgejumper08 Dec 24, 2014 10:26 AM
    streetsmart_player streetsmart_player Dec 24, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    Great observation Jumpy, it has basically been spinning its wheels for the last year. It is the Rodney Dangerfield of the stock market; no respect!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Margins Expanding / New Top 10

    by streetsmart_player Dec 13, 2014 12:25 AM
    streetsmart_player streetsmart_player Dec 16, 2014 11:57 PM Flag

    Alright, I was wrong on the NAV call. But it still has the floor around $30 and will likely keep oscillatng in that band between $30 & $40. Doesn't mean CMT won't run with the bulls....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • streetsmart_player by streetsmart_player Dec 13, 2014 12:25 AM Flag

    Crude keeps dropping and $50 a barrel looks possible. Lower input costs, high profit margins. Lower oil, lower costs to fleets for shipping. Low costs to them, even more reason to place orders. We've had two months with orders over 40k. The 2nd and 5th all-time highest months ever back-to-back with October and November respectively & 22 consecutive months of year-over-year increases in orders. December could be the heaviest order month ever for class 8 trucks as seasonally it is the highest order month. I would like to see that number come in at 50k.

    There are too many reasons to own this stock but here are for more:

    1. Santa Claus Rally
    2. NAV reports this week and it will be a shocker and short squeeze with roughly 22% of the float short
    3. Carl Ichan and Mark Rachesky have big stakes
    4. NAV will move above $40 and that puts CMT in play to move back above its all-time high
    5. We got some analyst coverage this week with more surely to come
    6. January Effect
    7. Strong Balance sheet
    8. New flexibility with financing for a possible acquistion possibly accretive to earnings
    9. Possibility for customer and product base diversification from new business
    10. New COO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • streetsmart_player by streetsmart_player Dec 9, 2014 6:51 AM Flag

    Each day oil drops it only improves CMT's prospects for a great quarter - firming up even more truck demand and reducing the input costs of their products. Just a thought....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Analyst coverage

    by landshannen Dec 8, 2014 7:44 PM
    streetsmart_player streetsmart_player Dec 8, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    $17 price target - I'm sure they raise it if CMT starts moving. Never heard of singular before. Any idea of their track record or the kinds of stuff they have covered in the past?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • streetsmart_player streetsmart_player Dec 3, 2014 8:51 PM Flag

    Jumpy,

    This isn't archery so I am hesitant about taking target practice, plus it is hit or miss and that thinking has burned me in the past. I focus more on if the stock is behaving well or not, and it has been and the fundamentals that will drive that buying. That being said, I would like to see it take out the prior all-time high of $15.49 and then move to $20. Over the next year, $50 is not out the question if the stock is trading on volume. We are looking at a low-float stock that could become a hot momo play in short time.

    Pull up a monthly chart and look at the last time this stock made a run when class 8 demand was strong, it more than tripled but you will see the monthly volume was quite different than it is now. This stock still has not attention and I am a buyer anywhere under $15. Think about if they make a positive acquisition or something. Also, think ERS when it ran to $60+, your looking at a stock with similar characteristics ex a dividend. Incidentally I do own some ERS at this point as well - worth a look.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • streetsmart_player by streetsmart_player Dec 3, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    This is the 2nd month in a row they were above 40k, in case you were wondering why CMT and all trucking srocks are rallying today...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What a second????

    by streetsmart_player Nov 19, 2014 1:47 AM
    streetsmart_player streetsmart_player Nov 21, 2014 9:28 PM Flag

    I've got long term gains at this point, but I know what you mean. They don't want to move the stock too much either by taking a stake that has any significance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What a second????

    by streetsmart_player Nov 19, 2014 1:47 AM
    streetsmart_player streetsmart_player Nov 21, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    Jeef,

    Does that mean you think I should have unloaded my shares when it dipped to $12.50?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • streetsmart_player by streetsmart_player Nov 19, 2014 1:47 AM Flag

    So the company does as follows:

    1. Decent quarter beating prior year results, margins expanding
    2. Management takes a step forward with actually providing some form of guidance,
    3. Class 8 truck orders are going through the roof
    4. NAV is soon to report
    5. Oil prices plummet and it is a key input for plastics
    6. Santa Claus rally
    7. Shelf registration with wide open options for financing and strong balance sheet
    8. Interest rates still at historically low levels
    9. Possibility for an aquisition that could be accretive to earnings
    10. Possibility to fund expansion, new product lines, new business, etc.
    11. Cup and handle on the weekly chart
    12. PCAR ready to breakout as well as other trucking stocks
    13. Company hasn't actually done anything yet and shares are being given away for a discount

    Stranger things have happened I suppose. Sell if you want now, but I think buyers are getting a sufficient margin of safety to come in and close the stock higher on the week.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • streetsmart_player by streetsmart_player Nov 4, 2014 9:53 PM Flag

    Orders for Class 8 trucks in October jumped 87% over the previous month to 45,795 units, the second highest amount of orders ever recorded in a single month, according to the latest FTR report. Orders were 76% higher year over year.

    ACT research also published a report on October truck orders expanding its focus to include Class 5-7. It found that the past 12 months have been the strongest such period since January 2007.

    Class 8 orders for the last six months stand at 354,000 units, a major increase from the previous six.

    “The huge amount of orders was driven by several very large fleets placing orders to be built throughout 2015,” explained Don Ake, vice president of commercial vehicles at FTR. “This is the result of the industry operating near full capacity and fleets having confidence that freight growth will remain strong for the entire year in 2015.”

    Fleets are locking in their orders today, in order to guarantee future deliveries, added Ake. The ACT report focused on what trends have led to the exceptional numbers.

    "Class 8 net worders in October represent the convergence of a number of trends that continue to drive healthy order activity," said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT. "Those trends include pent-up demand amongst small and medium fleets, superior new truck fuel economy, improved economic activity in key freight sectors and most importantly, rising freight rates and fleet profitability."

    Combined, class 5-8 orders are up 50% from a year ago though Medium-duty has seen more sublte rise, with 21,700 units ordered in October. This represents a 14% better number when compared to October 2013.

    "On a seasonally adjusted basis, October's orders are slightly lower than actual at 19,400 units, but like actual, are the best month since April," said Vieth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings Monday

    by streetsmart_player Oct 31, 2014 12:46 PM
    streetsmart_player streetsmart_player Nov 4, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    Any day now. Just google Core Molding Technologies 3rd quarter earnings and you can see they are generally released 11/7 thru 11/11. Following that logic for the last quarter they actually announced a couple days earlier last time. I thought with the run-up back towards $14 today they would be tomorrow since they didn't come out on Monday. Hopefully management is smart enough not to announce on a Friday. They typically announce in the morning, never after the bell. I picked up another 350 on Monday on top of the 1,500 last week and my other core (pardon the pun) holdings in the stock. We have VERY easy comparables to beat for the quarter so looking for some fireworks.

    Good luck

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings Monday

    by streetsmart_player Oct 31, 2014 12:46 PM
    streetsmart_player streetsmart_player Oct 31, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    Make that 1,500 extra scooped up before earnings. It is going to be a nice Christmas boys!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • streetsmart_player by streetsmart_player Oct 31, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    Picked up another 1,250 shares this morning. Gap up Monday morning and no looking back. All trucking stocks are rallying and PCAR earnings were excellent. Check the weekly chart, perfect cup and handle. We should be able to make the IBD 50 a few weeks after earnings post as well.

    Good luck

    -Street

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • streetsmart_player by streetsmart_player Oct 12, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    Held strong all week long like nothing was going on around it. End of day on Friday, somebody tries unloading 25k before the bell and it just ate it; closing at the high of the day.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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