Wouldn't be surprised to see disruptions in Venezuela, perhaps even a regime change, by year-end. This would take a big chunk of that production off the market and cause some pricing disruptions at least in the short term. Valero would also feel a little pinch in its refining operations in TX.
Not for long. My arbitrage guy says he would not be surprised to see the BHI-HAL deal close way ahead of the November deadline. He also says that he SLB-CAM deal will be followed by others in the industry. Wouldn't be surprised to see WFT in the mix somehow in the future.
Schlumberger just this morning announced their acquisition of Cameron Int'l for a hefty premium. Industry competition is definitely "ON" now.
Then you should short the heck out of both stock ...according to arbitrage broker! GL
Yesterday truly was the last significant dip before the next run up to closing. Trade volume was 9X the daily volume. The players who wanted IN got what they wanted and all are now on board. A new HAL-BHI company is essential to having a U.S.-based petro-servicing company, as the world enters another phase of global energy-monetary policies. A lot of folks would even say that this is a national security concern. At any rate, there are going to be a slew of opportunities for the industry within the next several years. Venezuela's energy infrastructure will need a massive amounts of influx, after the current regime changes. Some of those assets dealing with Orinoco crude are in severe disrepair. The Mideast is going to require even more reinvestment, along with the Caspian route.
Unfortunate that some folks got shook from their shares rather cheaply this afternoon. I never understood why anyone would use stop-loss orders in an arb M&A situation. Nice hit job today by Bloomberg & cohorts. There is no doubt that some folks wanted in big time today. The options boys also did well.
Please provide evidence/data for your "conclusions", besides the magic 8 ball. You do realize that BHI is already trading at a substantial discount with a $3.5 billion fee to be had from HAL if the deal falls through. That is about two years of profit for BHI.
Take it easy Wall.street, Updownbuysell is just trying to create alpha. I agree that both parties want this deal to go through. The divestiture of certain BHI assets should have appeased any antitrust concerns. Interesting though how the market continues to value Schlumberger in a different manner.
Just don't forget to short HAL as well :-)
Let the boys play their game, while you accumulate. At these buy-in prices, there is going to be money made. I just bought another 10,000 today for my son's UTMA account. GLTA
If you have some dry powder, now is the tie to back the truck up on EXK. I've done this sub-1.90 mass purchase three times already, and it has been a very generous payday every time. This stock and the whole silver sector is severely oversold. JMHO
Even by some miracle they get through the June 30 payment deadline, there is another series of huge repayments scheduled throughout the summer. The wheels are going to fall off. This is a mathematical certainty. Greece's leadership now has to weigh the cost-benefit of a few weeks on the eminence front to the overall suffering and actual future of their citizens. Market corrections are definitely on the way for the rest of 2015 and possibly a few quarters in 2016. I would not be surprised to see a 10%-15% haircut coming to equities and the Dow. The question then becomes -- how does the Fed raise rates in that environment?
China plans to launch yuan gold fix by the end of 2015.
You can bet that banks from AIIB-member nations will be participating in this. The needed fiat-PM correction is on its way.
From AFP about an hour ago (9:45 am EST today)
"Athens (AFP) - Greece rejected Wednesday "counter proposals" from creditors that were issued in response to Athens' latest budgetary plan, in light of the IMF's position, a government source said.
Questioned about whether "this counter proposal" -- containing even bigger VAT tax hikes and public spending cutbacks -- had been rejected by the radical left Greek government, the source replied: "Yes."
Creditors are calling for early retirement to be abolished and an increase in the retirement age from 62 to 67 by 2022, and not 2025, according to plans published on a leftist website and confirmed by the source.
They are sticking to a demand for a rate of 23 percent for VAT, or value-added tax, for restaurants, instead of 13 percent at the moment. Athens is fearful over the impact on its valuable tourism sector.
Creditors also propose to increase the level of corporation tax to 28 percent, instead of the Greek plan to raise it to 29 percent from 2016 onwards. The current level is 26 percent.
And they want defence expenditure to be slashed by 400 million euros instead of the proposed 200 million euros.
Creditors also seek the removal of special VAT rates for residents of the Aegean islands."
Stick a fork in it...Greece's default is here!
From CNBC at 9:00 am EST 6/24/15.
International creditors on Wednesday rejected the Greek government's plan to end its financial crisis, but they have submitted counterproposals.
News of the rejection, announced by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, dashed hopes of an imminent deal between the embattled Mediterranean country and its creditors. Greece needs additional financial aid to prevent it from defaulting on its debts at the end of the month, but its lenders have refused to release funds without the implementation of more reforms.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is believed to be the most skeptical of the troika of bodies overseeing Greece's bailout. Its creditors have now put forward a new set of counterproposals, sources close to the talks told Reuters.
European markets turned lower on news of the rejection, with Germany's Dax (^GDAXI) falling 1.2 percent and the Athens stock exchange down 3.3 percent.
"Certain institutions insist in not accepting equivalent measures suggested by the Greek government," Tsipras told his colleagues before departing to Brussels, according to a statement. "The non acceptance of equivalent measures has never happened before. Neither in Ireland nor in Portugal. Nowhere!"
U.S. and Chinese officials on Tuesday discussed Beijing's bid to have the yuan included in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket, as the latter advances its bid to make the yuan a reserve currency. Last month, the IMF hinted that a promotion may happen in 2015, after saying it doesn't consider the currency undervalued. According to data from SWIFT, the yuan became the second most used currency in trade finance, the fifth most popular payment currency and the sixth most used foreign exchange currency in the world in December 2014.
WHEN this happens, expect the disconnect between fiat currencies and PMs to also correct a bit.