State of mind is the key with TRQ! There is a big difference in mindset, as well as anxiety levels, between (day) trading the stock versus buy & hold. IMHO, TRQ is a buy and hold play. If one were to proceed with this mindset and expectation, then the crucial issue left would be at what entry point would be palatable and profitable. Money is made on the buy end. At these levels, the answer is clear enough.
The "government involvement" part is ok and welcomed, so long as Parliament has very little to do with it. The current DP party who is now in power intends to open up the country for western investment by striking down the restrictive legislation passed by Parliament two years ago when the opposing party was still in power.
One of the major keys to recovery is how quickly can MCGC monetize its loans. The good 'ol days of collecting hefty fees from origination are over in post-Dodd Frank.
This is not a typo. 9.0 short ratio on a stock that is 51% held by insiders and another 35% by institutions. By any other reason, a 9.0 ratio would be a stellar short squeeze candidate. Bottom line -- valuations are being pushed down for a reason.
Rio's statement to acquire TRQ will more than likely follow an earlier announcement regarding the GOM officially signing off on phase 2 of OT and signalling they are open for business.
Make no mistake, Rio is the king of OT operations. A very interesting note comes from Robert Friedland's recent involvement regarding TRQ's Rights Offering. There is no doubt that the man is all in with this deal. He increased his overall stake in the success of TRQ (the company that he used to run prior to Rio stepping on stage), while decreasing his direct holding of TRQ common. Also interesting is the recent offering two days ago by Kincora Copper for developing the OT and the recent involvement of Cameron McRae with Kincora and the OT.
Exactly. Rio already has a lot invested in the mines, via TRQ, and they do not want GOM to open those mines up to others. TRQ's asset holdings is a good way for Rio and GOM to project an image of open and competitive bidding, when the Rio claws are in already deep via proxy. This is about getting exclusive dibs on a large, long-life mine that not only has high quality copper, but substantial amounts of gold as well.
Yes, TRQ is a pawn and always has been in the eyes of GOM. GOM knows who they are really negotiating with. Nonetheless, if Rio ever wants to monetize those mines, then it has to acquire TRQ. The only real remaining issue then is valuation for acquisition purposes. There is obviously a bit of quid pro quo going on at the moment, with the little brother taking one for the team. Hopefully this moves strengthens big brother's leverage with phase 2.
Because wildbill400 shorted the hell out of TRQ... and he hopes not to be on the receiving end of a potentially violent short squeeze.
The market has already priced in the divy reduction, my friend. Last week's call, announced a divy reduction explicitly and then went on to say that any future divy payout would be closely tied to NOI. The diy reduction is already baked into the pie at this price level. Hence, a current 9% divy yield.
It's called "time to accumulate".... no brainers like this opportunity don't come along that often. Any buy position at this pps level, is a profit making one...even if the buyout is not at $8. JMHO
The GOM is not stupid. They knew who was really sitting at the other end of the negotiation table. It was well understood that a "condition precedent" must occur prior to any yes vote by GOM. There is no better assurance than seeing skin in the game!
Good question, but no. While this quarter's divy is set at .125, in the meeting two days ago, management announced that any forward guidance on future divys would strongly correlate with NOI. Based on a rough calculation this would probably put the divy at .07 per quarter, covering the last three quarters of the current calendar year would put it at 0.21+0.125 = 0.335
The time for accumulation is now. If someone is on the fence to get in, and is conflicted over another .25 drop to get in, that person needs to re-focus. Rio already owns 51% of TRQ and is very possibly bidding for the remaining 49%. This is not a sudden wholesale or a hostile takeover situation. The only questions left are valuation/premiums and when. At this price level, get every share you can get and prepare to sit on it for about 3-6 months. Just bought 18,000 at 4.07 w/some IRA money. GLTA
Disturbing also because if a potential buyer came along and bought NTE now, they would be buying NTE at a deep discount...in using the company's own money to fuel their takeover! NTE really does need to diversify their asset base and balance sheet. A sprinkle of real estate assets would probably be a good thing, especially in that part of the world. It would, at the very least, be a good hedge against currency devaluations....plus the chance for appreciation of more tangible assets.
MCGC's pps is in an interesting juncture -- a new 52 week low was set yesterday (3/5/14) while short positions increased. Keeping in mind MCGC's float and its new 5%-6% divy yield on a go forward basis, this is a "back the truck up" moment. Interesting how yesterday's report explicitly mentioned future divy payments will be tied to NOI. It sounds like management wanted to reinforce the health of retained earnings, despite the guidance on the reduced dividends. A good subtle move. $4.50 by Easter. JMHO