the big $ shorts are not and have not been covering to any notable extent..........unless perhaps by utilizing options to some degree ...........is this pursuant to shortie thesis or pursuant to shortie being trapped or another reason.
the fundamental game changer in this dynamic is Eisai and its willingness to spend more than adequate funds on this DTC campaign. and is Eisai hiring the top tier talent contractors to make the DTC campaign result in script growth. and lastly, are Eisai's goals and timeline for attaining such goals.....in exact conformity with arena corps( and arna retail s/h) goals for belviq and timeline to attain such goals.
I would tend to think mostly yes.........but im not positive. Eisai invested too much present and future capital into belviq so the only issue I can possibly entertain is that Eisai timeline for belviq success might differ from arna corp/arna retail s/h timeline for belviq success. (this issue , im thinking could involve Eisai wanting to own arna corp) ( I would think arna mgmt. could successfully defeat that)( I ultimately don't think such scenario is highly likely that Eisai is holding its foot on the brakes w/r to belviq growth)
my issue is this; assuming orex/takeda gets fda approved they will spend $$ on growth thru advertising.
so I wonder in such scenario......why Eisai does not take advantage of the time in which orex/contrive cannot be advertised nor sold.......... to heavily & repeatedly advertise belviq. it would seem this time period of exclusive right for belviq to advertise and contrive having zero rights......WOULD BE AN ADVANTAGEOUS opportunity for Eisai. So. I don't know why that advantage is not being exploited. but I do acknowledge Eisai knows better than I do, as to how to optimalize the growth of a new drug . i'd be interested to hear Eisai's thoughts on such issue. perhaps studies indicate my thinking is incorrec
holding close to $9.50 /sh for all this time.........rising from the ashes of $6 ish(?) is very encouraging. the consecutive reduction in short interest backs up that encouraging profile. and all this on no new news prior to the other days nda filing........... now the nda filing is a net positive event despite any rationale to the contrary.
not necessary that sppi mkt cap rises "on cue" with the nda filing announcement. too early to tell if nda announcement will move pps notably. the big $$ keeps retail off guard with price action behavior.
nda is merely submission of application so who in right mind is expecting any significant mkt cap move up.
nonetheless its a step closer to fda decision. all good.
to fashion a caption that "pps action is not encouraging" is waaayyyy below your/charger intellect and that raises red flags. that's an unfair caption........its a big stretch....... its arguably flawed logic unsubstantiated by empirical data/history. charger...... posts such as this one decrease your credibility. wreaks of some slight form of desperation to lower sppi pps. again.......its atypically beneath your other higher quality posts.
anyway......... if u are a legit retail player.........good luck to you. perhaps you want to get entry back at $6 OR $7;SHARE.......I don't know but its one possibility (lot of sideliners got caught on the upswing to mid 9's.
I don't put too much emphasis on "days to cover" because if daily trading volume goes off the charts huge,,,,,,as it would on a material event/shortsqueeze..........then the shortratio is very very quickly altered dramatically downward. but in such scenario....... if a squeeze based on positive material news occurred,,,,,then the pps would shoot up dramatically. could go down on material bad news, conversely.
I say a lot has to do with Eisai spending funds and utilizing top tier talent/advisers/advertisers.........to get the belviq message across to all americans.
to this day, I still have not seen a belviq internet ad,,,,,,without my having to search for it. meanwhile I am bombarded with so many other fantastic internet ads for products........and I view these ads, almost daily. that makes a lasting impression. vastly moreso is the effect of repetitive highly effective tv advertising.
I will allow, at this juncture,. that Eisai knows what needs to be done, has the wherewithal to get it done, and that Eisai having successfully accomplishing commercial rollouts of drugs already........ knows better than I know .......how to effectuate a ultimately highly successful belviq rollout in usa. there is no rule requiring belviq sell a specific quantity of pills by any date certain. that's not how reality works.
well the tute longs are clearly loaning out their shares..........
question is when does such lending by the tutes cease.
the 65 million short interest does not seem to be wholly hedged by options.
not knowing identification of the short interest is problematic as far as understanding any collusion between arna institutional longs and shorts.
orex fda approval is not a slam dunk. seen too many unexpected crl letters issued by fda.
vvus is a flounder out of water.........
is it irrefutable that Eisai's interests are in alignment with arena pharma interests ?
I would think so. Eisai made major major commitment to belviq with present value funds and future R & D funding. plus so many other long term expenses associated with marketing/sales.
alternatively, if Eisai absorbs arna corp.......then a short squeeze would put big time bankroll into Eisai pockets and not arna pockets. sounds interesting but I cant imagine arna corp allowing such to occur.
big pharma is another variable.
short interest , imo, is at much larger risk, than long interest.
Friday scripts.........will they go back to pre-thanksgiving levels ? that will be interesting to see.
Eisai should be filing nda for belviq by end of month........outside usa........
short more fugger........... retail ain't sellin you fugger..........go find some fuggin shares thru the loan program...........interest on the loan is going up fugger.......... regards to little fuglet........ govt will issue you cheese.
this is setting up to be one MAJOR CATASTROPHE 4 shortie............ THE BALL IS IN EISAI'S COURT............ EISAI CAN CAPTURE 65.9 MILLION SHORT SHARES IF THEY PLAY THEIR(eisai;s) HAND CORRECTLY. I LUV THE LONG BET HERE MORE THAN EVER. W/B ADDING SHARES .
I RESPECT SHORTIE POWER........... WE SHOULD GIVE SHORTIE PROPER BURIAL WHEN EISAI MAKES IT HAPPEN.
rowdy- wow, that's is unbelievably cold with that windchill. don't think its that brutal on the northslope or perhaps comparable.
hey- congrats on urz obtaining that state of Wyoming bond in such expedited fashion. the timing of the funding saved the company from having to fashion other funding .
lets see how this plays out over time. added shares near 92 cents.
im sure u are eating & drinking quite heartily and with good company .
the new/today rampart press release entitled corporate update is found on ASX under symbol rtd and then go to the rtd pdf files. rampart states as follows; as of the 12/10 rampart filing with the ASX....... rampart states that royale energy corp will announce its selection of the seismic 3 D Survey contractor within a week. ( so that could mean a week from 12/10) which diverges from last royale press release indicating announcement of seismic survey contractor by end of this week, Friday 12/13.
secondly, the rampart filing states that the seismic 3 D SURVEY will be completed by this upcoming winter season....( so im thinking seismic survey t/b completed by approx. end of april 2014 ?) ( and then the question becomes how much time is needed to process, analyse, and come up with conclusions, based on that seismic 3D survey data.
the next post should logically concern "why is Eisai timeline differ from the retail arna long s/h timeline .....as far as belviq's ultimate determination as being a success or not.
I may have fallen into the trap of expecting too much too soon .......and such expectation was likely from my improper wanting to see exponential growth "right now" or "soon thereafter" and CLEARLY there is no reason for this to be the only path to dramatic success for belviq in usa.
osbourne crafted his hypothetical model.........and others have written & made conclusions based on the week over week script growth.
the fact is that belviq is going to require time to become a recognizable name in the everyday americans vocabulary. having a new drug , by name and by its function, permeate and cross paths with the broad swath of americans living in 50 states plus territories......... is more rationally than not,,,, going to require MORE time than belviq has presently been afforded. I usually appreciated such distinction but I admit at times I fell into the trap of impatience. THE mature long term longs in arna probably have not been sweating the volatility because they realize the only significant test of belviq..........can only be first measured further down the timeline after Eisai doubled salesforce and further internet/tv ads are given reasonable amt of time to work their magic. when Osborne publishes twice daily ( it seems anyway) and fraudsteen constantly tweets, and motley fool often weighs in..........and all these articles are expressly or impliedly assigning "a hurry up/rush factor" to the belviq rollout in usa......... I understand why I sometimes fall into that trap.
suave- im experiencing what poster oldfat describes in his post, this thread. at first I thought it was yahoo censors.....but probably yet another yhoo glitch. don't think u are being censored. one way to get around your problem, I have found,,,,,,is to post within an existing thread. seems to work but not positive.
candide.........I am concerned about your pastries.......... are you using lard from lean hogs or fat hogs ? also from what part of the hog does is your lard taken from ? leaf lard is the best lard and fat hogs are better lard producers than lean hogs. artisan country fairs often sell the highest quality lard. go to the country fairs Candide. it is imperative. when baking, the lard melts into large crystals that permeate the dough and leave air pockets, hence yielding that flakey crust that you so love. but lard is not as tasty as butter so I want you to bake your crust with 80 % lard and 20 % butter. the butter will add flavor to your crust.
now I have high triglyceride numbers so I gotta check my lard at the door.........but thank goodness they brought twinkies out of bankruptcy and back into production. such a perfect cake :) lol...........have a good week with the china sun group all girlz choir and the red fingered brigade.
p.s. use dry rendered lard and not wet rendered lard. why ? I don't know ........
tjats why we keep electing pres Obama- he's truthful.
correction; last sentence; so royale mkt cap should reflect that........
get up- if and when rampart gets a farm out oil corp partner.to fund the Alaskan drilling of two wells................ you should see a big % jump in royl mkt cap just on that alone. imo.
also, have to appreciate that the state of Alaska regulatory agencies are going to go out of their way to facilitate ongoing development of north slope. I expect many more diverse companies to situate themselves in north slope proximity all because of the recently passed Alaskan tax law that dramatically incentivizes companies to develop northslope oil.
I think more rig availability , more waterwaste disposal cos, more road builders, more rig parts suppliers, more incoming folks looking for jobs.......are all going to occur in 2014/2015. Alaska is more desparate to increase oil production than many folks appreciate. Alaska depends heavily on oil tax revenue. the transalaskapipeline needs more oil to avert its permanent closure. big incentives to developers. the sea routes are there to export Alaskan oil to Asian countries also. and the pipeline/tap is venue to have ak oil reach the continental usa.
lots of upside potential. downside is difficulty of working that neck of the woods.
and can it be an economically feasible endeavor. the bottom line, as I see it is that before any royl wells are close to productive wells........other progress points along the way will increase the value of the Alaskan acreage......perhaps significantly. so arna mkt cap should reflect that as we go step by step.
no arena only has catalyst of exponential growth of belviq sales going thru 2014/2015 ..........lets revisit belviq scripts once the doubled sales force is rolled out and once the tv commercials are rolled out..........
I'D SAY THAT COULD BE WHAT SOME CALL A CASH COW CATALYST AKA CCC.
oh........ hope orex don't get a crl letter. that would cut your mkt cap in half in a few hours.
neo- what you don't seem to appreciate is that I got into arna for what I consider to be cheap entry price. further, arna has fda approval and orex does not . therefore arna has greater chance of becoming a cash cow drug than does orex's drug as of this point in time.
thus,,,, your entry price into orex between $5-6 per share is much more risky than my entry into an already fda approved drug. you advise me that fda approval is NOT A guarantee of success but YOU DO NOT post that your purchase of OREX WITH NO FDA APPROVAL IS EVEN a LESSER GUARANTEE OF SUCCESS THAN MY BET ON BELVIQ.
lastly.........you seem to not appreciate that belviq is just going to commence selling belviq with a doubled sales force (from 200 going to 400 by end dec 2013 and you don't cite the upcoming direct to consumer campaign wherein arna partner has committed over $100 MILLION FOR the commercial rollout. these two factors do inarguably increase the likelihood ( stay with me here neo17) that scripts for belviq will show growth going into and thru 2014/2015. lastly.......the bet on orex is for assuming it obtains fda approval. but once fda approved,,,,,,,,,,orex pps/mkt cap will shift over to a week over week script metric and that could put orex below your entry price. another risk you have taken by going long orex.