all longs bought more and some shorts covered ??? i would guess. BUT i caution folks not to make final judgments based on 45 minutes of trading today. be smart folks. its your money. best of luck to longs and i hope the street INCREASES POSITIVELY, its assessment arna corp as being a up and coming company on the move that wshould dramatically grow in mkt cap.
8) im thinking the 2014 arna expenditures on research and development is the CORRECT move for arna which by definition is a developmental company. the forecasted expenses for year 2014 are approx 120 million ?? ( faulty memory here) but arna has approx 215 million in cash under its mattress and furthermore all belviq income for entire 2014 gets added to the analysis. '
9) one concept i keep repeating is this; neither shareholders, nor shortie hedgieman, nor tute longs that are loaning out shares of arna to enable shortie............. and neither analysts, nor folks at eisai, nor folks at arna corp............NONE OF THESE ENTITIES have an idea as to how belviq sales growth will show up when plotted on a graph in a wk x wk or month x month analysis. THE ONLY DETERMINANTS OF BELVIQ GROWTH ARE THE INTER-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DOCTORS & PATIENTS. THAT IS IT.
so,,,,, the more comfortable doctors get with witnessing belviq results over time (for ex 1 year) with no adverse health effects and actual weightloss, bloodpressure improvement, prediabetes improvement,,,,, etc............then that factor would encourage further script growth. also, if EISIA ever takes time to run a PROPER ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN DESIGNED TO REACH THE AVG AMERICAN, EN MASSE,,,,,,,, then "an educated consumer is our best consurmer" (sy syms, mens warehouse reference :))
1) lots of industry folks at arna conf call asking questions. SO FAR....... we have not seen their likely to be newly published commentary, analysis, notes, new projections/price target. I ASSUME we will in fact be seeing more articles from some of these attendees. who knows....... they might give a positive outlook going forward. i have no clue. but the mkt down move is likely an indicator of tenor of their new notes/comments.
2) we await todays latest script # on belviq. if unexpected large growth in scripts.......could significantly change price action. not a high percentage likelihood for today, imo.
3) im not assuming todays open was any bear market raid but longs who want out, right now.
4) therefore i assume that shortie has more ammunition to drive pps down .
5) like i said yesterday,,,, op/ex today may well somewhat contain the extent of todays highs and lows on arna pps........... and if so......then im thinking this coming week will permit better opportunity for wall street to move arna pps up or down based on its latest assessment of arna corp post yesterdays conf call.
6) im hoping the script # get sizably better as soon as possible and such, i believe is possible. if and when such occurs, i believe it will cause upside move in pps and some short covering.
7) conf call led me to believe in 2014 arna might enter in more partnerships for its pipeline drugs that are not belviq related
dude..........markets been open frickin 10 minutes. geez. are u kidding me ? hopefully we close way up from, down here but your stmt is premature & irresponsible
lol- best post of evening shift.............................brrrrrrrreak time.................do-NUTS
hey dude- new years resolutions. weight loss. sign up for gym. sign up weight watchers. THATS DEC 2013 ADVERTISING TO GET THOSE JAN 2, 2014 NEW YEAR RESOLUTION dollar $$$ bills.
whats this crappola about end of february ?
to be crystal clear............ the ads should have been OMNIPRESENT ON THE INTERNET FROM DEC 2013 and CONTINUOUS THRU THIS VERY DAY AND BEYOND. there is NO DOWNSIDE TO WHAT I JUST WROTE. TO QUIBBLE ABOUT JAN VERSUS END OF FEB IS PURE NONSENSE.
why cant folks just accept fact that based on money considerations....EISAI held back on the belviq rollout. ITS REALLY NOT A PUZZLE. a larger pharma corp would have spent the money starting in december for widespread internet ads and tv ads.
the fact that jack lief is clueless as to when tv ads will start.........april, may , or june........ is kind of depressing but it shows how arna retail s/h are wholly dependent in 2014 on eisai corp. MEANWHILE,,,,, '
eisai corp has a wide array of drugs to sell and do not solely depend on belviq.
furthermore......the arna mgmt is flush with cash and they are gonna get their compensation packages for years to come in the LARGE SIZE I ASSURE YOU.
THATS why i kept stressing that the timeline as to obtaining certain belviq objectives differs amongst eisai corp and arna corp mgmt and arna retail shareholders.
the good news is that over the course of 2014 if belviq sales grows sizably........then we will hit our double digit pps in 2014. it seems obvious to me and it seems doable to me. NOW........ seems to me we have to get a large per cent of the average american to become aware of the word belviq and what the heck its purpose is; EISAI.... cant you even accomplish such a simple task ?
buck- you and that other poster i spoke to today(the guy who sold most all his shares w/intent to reenter at lower price).........you guys made a good move. congrats. right now the reaction is not over the top crazy and i suspect friday op/ex will come into play to perhaps place parameters on the upside and downside in price action. so perhaps this coming week will be more accurate as to how market feels about the arna corp situation. i dont find the arna situation bad to degree that i need to worry. the key issue is will or will not belviq sales increase growth sizably thruout 2014. thats how i feel and have felt all along w/r to the 2014 year.
ok........ again, congrats to you who hedged........and the other poster who sold prior to earnings........
bottom line from me to you; you made a good move(s). lets all be civil since we are all likely to be here throughout 2014 at least- you included.
nothing personal but the post is kinda silly. sorry collector
the nda applications submitted already to approx 5 other countries, and the further new drug applications to be filed in many other countries in 2014 all represents additional quantities of belviq sales- obviously.
the progression of the arna pipeline has cash under the mattress to cover ALL of 2014, at least. this does not even include all 2014 belviq revenues to be received by arna.
EVERYTHING SEEMS JUST FINE. AS LONG AS IN 2014 BELVIQ SALES INCREASE SIZABLY, SUCH INCREASE SHOULD BE VERY DOABLE. WE SHALL SEE.
plus in 2014 arna gets revenue from belviq and some milestone payments and im sure for 2014 there are some other expenses not within the approx $160 million so stated. SO ENTIRE 2014 is covered by cash under the arna mattress plus any/all 2014 belviq revenue& milestonepayment.... 2014 will further the various research on the arna product line. which is what they are supposed to be doing.
thanks 4 keeping in touch w/mb.
i have not seen rowdy post for over a month........ i also share another mb w/him & he's not been posting there either. hopefully he's on vacation in warm climate. he put me into a uranium stock where i am up.
today was low volume trading.
did shortie sell those calls and buy those puts at $7strike price. i sure hope not. todays very modest volume dont seem to indicate shortie has any early info........
for strike price $7.5 there are approx open interest calls of 1,600 and approx 1,000 of those 1,600 were transacted today. to be in money for tomorrows op /ex these need pps to go over approx $7.63 or so..
thats at strike price of $7.00 on the 2400 OI puts.
at 7.00 strike the open interest on calls is approx 5,000 with almost 2,000 of the 5,000 just today. and for those calls to start making $$ looks like pps has to go approx over $ 7.20 ish (imprecise, based on memory)
im thinking nothing dramatic will emerge out of this earnings release and im thinking pps should move plus or minus 20-40 cents tomorrow. just a guess. of course, a good question is when will retail s/h be apprised of the script # tomorrow /friday. early morn,,,,, mid day,,,,,, or after close ?? then again, the paying subscribers should have the script info tomorrow morning. i guess nothing earth shattering. but gotta expect the unexpected. looking forward to close of todays session.
the proper question is how valuable is a piece of coal to folks whose quality of life hang in the balance of access to coal or no coal at all. too many folks need this drug.- unfortunately.
big pharma can sell this like hotcakes to already staffed sales reps visiting established dr office scheduled visits 4 other drugs.
they are good folks
they are smart folks
i think they might have to buy back at a significant premium.........
any bad news is known fir long time..all data is alreasy known 4 ER
i dont think one can time the market especially short term like these retail longs who sold out.......
the funds will exploit these timing wizards..........
just my guess.........
expect the unexpected in this casino
friday # might be unexpectedly large
just my opinion. i see this drug as nice complement to many big pharmas with existing large sales force. chtp dont need to sell this on its own. thats nonsense.
if partnership/ sale of corp is in works or souught out............then job openings must be posted to give chtp bargaining leverage. basic.