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ITT Corporation Message Board

stuartcreekfarms 59 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 31, 2014 2:22 PM Member since: Jan 24, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Will there be a Barron's bounce?

    by zd_bar Aug 31, 2014 12:41 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Aug 31, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    Nice article.
    I hear Buffet likes USG CEO Metcalf's management style and initiatives.
    Not much risk. I was buying at 27 recently.
    Option premiums are decent because of possible buyout potential.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 29, 2014 7:54 AM Flag

    Might have been a sort of "mea culpa" for having to retract the previous more upbeat guidance.
    A big rule in the "guidance" arena is to underpromise and over-deliver -- that is gospel in guidance.
    PVA broke the rule.
    PVA management seems pretty aggressive (at least in expanding the EF drilling) but there is a time to be a bit conservative -- investors love a positive upside surprise.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 27, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    A friend told me that news of the CEO buy hit just when PVA spiked about 2:25.
    That's all I go to explain the spike.

  • Credit PVA management with doing a lot of great things in the Eagle Ford but the rapid expansion from two to eight drilling rigs seems to be a little too much to bite off so quickly.
    The recent re-assessment of second half guidance appears to be a sign of a little fraying in management credibility.
    With all due respect, and given the Soros position and the recent huge purchase of 10,000 Oct. calls by some heavy hitter, it looks like now may be the time to negotiate a buyout of PVA that rewards both management and shareholders for a job well done.
    If management signals that it is willing to explore "strategic alternatives" it can make a deal that benefits everyone. Being pulled kicking and screaming to the altar is not going to help anyone.
    Maybe the last few weeks of uncertain guidance (and quick retraction) has taught management that it is time to turn this big, productive acreage over to an operator with greater resources and experience.

  • Reply to

    PVA fine-tuning guidance

    by stuartcreekfarms Aug 25, 2014 8:01 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Aug 25, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    I don't disagree at all.
    The more "in play" PVA is the better the chance of a takeover at a nice premium.
    PVA may have bitten off more than it can chew with eight rigs going but I tend to like an aggressive company that tries to press its advantage.

  • Reply to

    PVA fine-tuning guidance

    by stuartcreekfarms Aug 25, 2014 8:01 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Aug 25, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    It's a production growth story and a couple of months here or there shouldn't make a big difference as long as the production growth is occurring.
    I think the buy of 10,000 short-term calls is big. Anyone other than Soros buys that many calls and they probably get questions from the SEC. Soros has already made a big commitment to PVA so the SEC probably wouldn't question additional buys of shares or calls.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 25, 2014 8:01 AM Flag

    Is this for the benefit of potential bidders for the company -- coming so soon after an earnings announcement?
    Those 10,000 calls bought the other day are another step toward putting PVA in play.

  • Reply to

    Why was there a run-up Friday?

    by bawnjw Aug 23, 2014 5:13 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Aug 23, 2014 6:14 AM Flag

    Huge buy of October 14 calls probably caused option market makers to hedge their positions by buying lots of PVA stock. Who bought 10,000 Oct PVA calls is the real question. Soros?

  • Reply to

    Huge buy of Oct 14 calls

    by stuartcreekfarms Aug 22, 2014 1:10 PM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Aug 22, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    In my opinion, It would make some sense for Soros to buy calls at this point if he is getting more confident that he can force a sale of PVA.
    Best guess is that the option market makers are scrambling to buy PVA stock they don't get caught without hedges if a deal occurs.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 22, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Market makers must hedge by buying lots of PVA shares -- best explanation

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 22, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    Looks like something may be up if October call volume is accurate

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 20, 2014 4:42 AM Flag

    Leopard Hunter area -- four wells IP averaging about 930 barrels of oil per day.
    (This is probably on the acreag bought from Magnum Hunter)
    Any IP near 1,000 barrels of oil per day is good.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 18, 2014 6:13 AM Flag

    Looks like the long downtrend line is broken as of 8/15.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 15, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    Not a whole lot but a good sign.
    Has Soros announced any change in PVA position?

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Aug 12, 2014 7:31 AM Flag

    Culpeper unit -- average of the two wells about 830 barrels of oil per day

  • My vote is firmly for PVA management.
    Management was quick to see the potential of the oil in the Eagle Ford and have done everything in their power to exploit this potential production bonanza. I have not seen any management blunders -- on the contrary, the asset sales have been well-timed and the growth in putting more rigs to work has been impressive.
    So let's deal with the company's critics;
    Argument number one from some analysts: PVA "missed" on quarterly numbers.
    This is a laughable argument. Does it really matter if a well came online in June or July? This is the ultimate short-term canard that analysts love to cite because they have no real understanding of the company's longer-term goals.

    Argument number two (from Soros): The company is leveraging up; the balance sheet.
    Soros has gone from praising the company management to complaining about a recent debt offering.
    Well, do you want a pretty balance sheet or eight rigs out there drilling in the EF? Personally, I want to see the "pedal to the metal" production growth that is the future of my investment in PVA.
    In my opinion, Soros should be actively facilitating a takeover of PVA that works for everybody. I think the ideal would be to talk to companies that would like to get into the EF and engineer a deal that would allow current PVA management to operate the EF division (or a total shale division) as a bolt-on. Current management deserves to be rewarded. They are good operators and a bigger company would be lucky to have them on their team.

    There may be valid negative arguments to make against PVA management but I don't think the quarterly "miss" matters at all and I don't mind leverage on the balance sheet if it serves a longer-term goal.

  • In Gonzales, the Cinco J well over 2300 barrels of oil per day with significant gas.
    In LaVaca, seven Bock wells all filed -- six have excellent to huge IPs, with a couple over 2,000 barrels of oil per day IP. Only one well could be considered mediocre.
    Looks like significant gas as well on the Bock wells..
    These are just big, consistent numbers on tight chokes.
    As I have said before, only EOG is getting bigger numbers out of the Eagle Ford.
    PVA is EOG Junior.
    I don't know if there is a connection between these well filings and big volume in PVA late Friday.
    Please check for yourself. I may be missing something on the gas production IPs as I usually just judge wells on the oil content.
    I am not an oil expert but these are the best consistent numbers I have seen out of PVA.
    Smart of PVA to file eight wells at once -- gets people's attention.
    Can someone pin down the locations for these new wells? Are any in the new drilling area?
    I think "riskonriskoff" can pinpoint locations. He makes some excellent posts.

  • stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Aug 8, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Thanks for kind words.
    I did very little with OHRP. I was a skeptic but I did mention it early to some friends and I believe they did OK with it.
    Yes. AAVL has the right partner in REGN. They will have tremendous credibility together.
    I would not ignore AGTC -- in terms of a science team they are right up with the best. The Gainesville gene replacement group that formed AGTC was in the very successful canine trials that actually cured Briard pups of Leber's retinal disease for their lifetime. The Briard named Lancelot went to Congress and is world famous in gene replacement circles. This was a cooperative effort between U of Penn, Cornell and U of Florida.
    AGTC screwed up a follow-on offering and that got the stock clobbered. I like it longer term.
    OCUL and EYEG do not appeal to me as other eyecare IPOs.
    I am a major message board advocate for PVA. The story is production growth in the Eagle Ford and the company is being aggressive in going after it -- which may scare some analysts who are slaves to the quarterly numbers.
    Not many other stock ideas right now. ARAY is one I like longer term.

  • All kinds of eyecare stocks have been going public recently. Even Eyegate (EYEG- iontopheresis) has filed and OCUL is now being traded.
    As for AAVL, I expected that one to be a winner as the REGN partnership offers powerful credibility. I was prepared to buy up to 20 but it opened too strong. A similar company is AGTC, which really didn't so a good job of managing a two-stage IPO that burned investors in the first stage. AGTC has great science and gene replacement is probably the wave of the future in CURING retinal diseases.
    Since I only take long positions, I am mainly just sitting and watching the market lately and making very few trades. I still have faith in PVA despite the recent drop. It is really an oil production growth story and I don't worry too much about quarterly results that "miss" by a few pennies.
    If there is a panicky selling climax I will look for bargains -- maybe something like International Paper is pretty safe with a nice dividend.
    I don't know what optimist has against me but I think I was a voice of sanity here for awhile. Can't get too caught up in message board feuds, though.

  • I have been an investor in PVA since it was $4 a share. Back then, most analysts had target prices for PVA between 3 and 5. I think most of them misunderstood the potential of the Eagle Ford and I think they still have problems analyzing PVA.
    Analysts tend to deal in short-term metrics like cash flow, EPS and revenues, Any "miss" and they start re-assesing their opinion.
    PVA is clearly an aggressive company, almost totally focused on growing EF oil production. This is a laudable goal and it is the surest path to success but it also means there may be some sloppy quarters which #$%$ the analysts
    PVA is going to eight rigs. This may have a temporary negative effect on cash flow but it is the best long-term strategy to build production.
    If you can't deal with a "pedal to the metal" effort to grow production, maybe you should not be in PVA. Personally, I like a company that knows what it wants to do and goes after it. I believe the PVA bull case is very much intact -- and actually the aggressive exploration effort may make the company an even better acquisition than id PVA pursued a "safe" strategy that involved only five or six rigs.

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