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Noble Corp. Message Board

stuartcreekfarms 59 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jan 24, 2007
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  • REGN has drug development platform that will be of huge value to SNY.
    This is the undervalued element in the SNY story.
    Book it.

  • The head of OPEC (a Saudi?) came out and said publicly his goal is to scuttle the US oil shale industry.
    He wants to force the price of oil down so that most shale is not economically feasible.
    Don't we have a primary goal of energy independence?
    Isn't the shale boom creating jobs in numerous states?
    What about it, Gov. Rick Perry?
    The administration needs to be calling in the Saudis (and Kuwaitis) for a little talk.
    So maybe they don't get the F-35s that the Saudi royal family wants for their "air force."
    I hope the US shale producers have a PAC to put some pressure on Congress.
    So far, the talk on TV seems to be that the Saudis can get away with this.

  • Reply to

    S.C Farms.

    by lbobtail 15 hours ago
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms 4 hours ago Flag

    Sure, a buyout at a premium would be great and maybe the PVA team could be retained, as they seem to know their business. (More chance of being retained if the buyout was by a major that wanted a presence in shale)
    I really defer to "riskonriskoff" for the economics of a buyout. He knows far more about the details of exploration than I do. I do agree with him that s share buyback is not good use of PVA's limited funds right now. (That may be the CEO's bravado anyway -- for public consumption).

  • stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms 16 hours ago Flag

    Hedges cover about 80 percent of oil for rest of 2014; maybe around 60 percent for 2015 and a small amount for 2016..
    They will get at least $90 on the hedges already in place.
    EF does have low break-even for better-producing properties, which PVA has. PVA is second in the EF in terms of per well production, which may or not be the most accurate indicator of cost structure.

  • It's an OK report.
    A lot of good numbers if you are a potential acquirer of PVA.
    They are definitely feeling the lower oil price despite the major hedging effort.
    Stock repurchase -- I think it will be a token effort. They don't have the extra money to do much more than that.
    How do other posters see this report?

  • Reply to

    Sanofi owns 25 percent of REGN

    by stuartcreekfarms Oct 29, 2014 7:20 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms 23 hours ago Flag

    SNY has the option to go to 30 percent ownership of REGN, I believe.
    REGN has a drug development platform that can spin out drugs for a number of diseases and the clinical trials have been excellent.
    Also, REGN is going to be a big leader in gene replacement -- they have Avalanche and Genzyme doing amazing work in that area.
    The more SNY can be affiliated with REGN -- the better.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 29, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    Buying SNY is a cheap way to get participation in the growth of REGN -- which is a premier growth pharmaceutical company.
    I believe SNY can increase its stake in REGN -- it has that option.
    SNY at 46 is a major steal -- yield alone is terrific.
    (Perhaps they are firing the CEO because the board knows the drug pipeline is a sure winner and they want to take the credit for future success).

  • Reply to

    Eagleford Sales

    by lbobtail Oct 28, 2014 4:36 PM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Oct 29, 2014 5:55 AM Flag

    Would like to see some positive news after the close when PVA reports.
    They have to avoid these rosy projections that they don't achieve.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 25, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    Named in a list of energy stocks that the author considers bargains right now.
    Not much more mention than that.

  • I think average IP for new wells this quarter will be slightly over 1,000 barrels of oil per day.
    I focus on production because I think excellent production is the best " deodorant" for overcoming all other issues that the company is dealing with.
    Production gains and judicious hedging can keep PVA an attractive investment despite Saudi attempts to derail our US shale oil industry.
    If other shale players cut back on drilling, PVA can drive better deals with its suppliers. Good for us.
    The other thing I want to mention is this: one analyst has PVA target price of 22; another has 9. Either one of the analysts doesn't understand the company or it is possible that PVA could go either way depending on a number of factors. That's what makes the company so interesting. A variety of scenarios are possible.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 24, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Trading a lot with some decent premium.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 22, 2014 6:34 AM Flag

    Almost all of the AH trades were at 8.20
    (why would anyone pay 9.06? novice investor?)

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 18, 2014 6:24 AM Flag

    This is a much-beloved aircraft.
    Could it have a new role that provides for extended service?

  • Reply to

    Two more PVA wells filed in Gonzales

    by stuartcreekfarms Oct 16, 2014 6:31 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Oct 16, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    PVA says the two CROC wells were shallow -- so the IP is very good for that type of location.

  • Reply to

    Two more PVA wells filed in Gonzales

    by stuartcreekfarms Oct 16, 2014 6:31 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Oct 16, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    Go back to post of Feb. 14, 2012 and the post is titled something like "Looking up IPs on RRC Website."
    That post has the instructions for getting to the RRC site.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 16, 2014 6:31 AM Flag

    "Croc" -- close to 800 average IP for the two.

    Hey "risk," the big EOG well I mentioned the other day was a Gonzalez County filing maybe on 10/13 and was the only EOG well filed in Gonzalez that day. You should be able to get the information you want.

  • I don't have the knowledge that "risk" has but I am feeling better about PVA.
    The EagleFord has a pretty low break even point and PVA has second most productive acreage (after EOG).
    PVA has hedged well. The IP numbers are holding up.
    Also, I see articles that mis-characterize PVA as a natural gas company drilling in Mississippi.
    PVA is an EagleFord company.
    I added under 7 this am and will not get panicked out of PVA as some are.
    PVA even more attractive as takeover now as bidder could go lower than a month ago.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 15, 2014 5:09 AM Flag

    I guess they are catching up on their filings.
    Two "Lee" wells in Gonzales county -- 1,866 and 1,910 barrels of oil per day IP -- very nice
    Five new "Porter" wells in LaVaca -- average of all five is about 1,100 barrels of oil per day -- good. Also some gas flow that looks significant.
    Between these good numbers (maybe more to come) and hedging cushion, PVA has some staying power in this game. Saudis can't pull this "scorched policy" for very long.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 15, 2014 4:23 AM Flag

    The Saudis strategy now is to let oil prices drop and maintain production. This is designed to bust the US shale oil boom that has been so beneficial to gaining our energy independence and creating economic gains in Texas, the Dakotas and other states as well.
    If the Saudis think this will fly, they must think we are patsies. I will not get into the competence or lack of it of our political leadership but I would think we could make the Saudis think twice about pulling this off. Let's start with depriving the Saudis of our military protection and see if they can fight off ISIS on their own.
    I would think every US-based oil trade group would express outrage over this Saudi ploy. (Their OPEC partners are not thrilled either).
    If we have any kind of leadership at all here, we should sit the Saudis down and tell them to maintain an oil price in the $95 area. That would work for everybody.

    PS -- I don't like the recent PVA IP numbers either. Under 1,000 barrels of oil per day is not going to help the stock.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 14, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    Porter in LaVaca -- 621 barrels of oil per day IP.

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