It is worth watching EOG for us PVA owners, as PVA is somewhat a very junior version of EOG.
EOG just completed a road show that was very bullish for 2015 on EF production -- even given the current slide in oil prices.
Credit Suisse even slightly raised its EPS estimate for 2015 for EOG.
The two companies don't compare on every count but good news for EOG is usually also good for PVA.
He didn't have much of a position (maybe 250,000 shares or so) but I think his liquidating PVA might have hurt the stock price a bit 10./17.
I used to think this Dennis Gartman was worth listening to but he comes on CNBC about a week ago and says oil is dead for good because Lockheed Martin has developed a cold fusion process and it will be a reality in a decade. I don't know if Gartman is short oil or what but people were talking up cold fusion breakthroughs in the 1980s because of work being done at Lawrence Livermore Lab in California and at Princeton. I talked to some of the Princeton scientists at the time and they were about 50 years away from anything that could have a real-world application. I think they soon ended the cold fusion project. Iguess there has to be a cold fusion headline every 30 years or so.
I think PVA should be played through a combination of a core position, a trading position and judicious put and call writing strategy.
The hedging does help.
With the election over, somebody has to stand up to the Saudis.
(Remember 1991 and Khafje? We saved their butts from Sadam. They are total ingrates.)
Very well hedged for 2015 with 72 percent of oil hedged already.
CS sees cutback to six rigs if oil price slide continues.
And this is what the Saudis want to dismantle.
Unbelievable that they may get away with it.
Brilliant analysis -- don't forget REGN partnership and SNY stake in REGN.
REGN is a drug development powerhouse.
Risk, the quick decline of production for shale oil is even more reason to rein in the Saudis' plans before they can begin to dismantle our shale oil industry.
We have a lot of levers we can pull to influence the Saudis.
In addition, I think our shale people are finding ways to get more production per well.
The head of OPEC (a Saudi?) came out and said publicly his goal is to scuttle the US oil shale industry.
He wants to force the price of oil down so that most shale is not economically feasible.
Don't we have a primary goal of energy independence?
Isn't the shale boom creating jobs in numerous states?
What about it, Gov. Rick Perry?
The administration needs to be calling in the Saudis (and Kuwaitis) for a little talk.
So maybe they don't get the F-35s that the Saudi royal family wants for their "air force."
I hope the US shale producers have a PAC to put some pressure on Congress.
So far, the talk on TV seems to be that the Saudis can get away with this.
Sure, a buyout at a premium would be great and maybe the PVA team could be retained, as they seem to know their business. (More chance of being retained if the buyout was by a major that wanted a presence in shale)
I really defer to "riskonriskoff" for the economics of a buyout. He knows far more about the details of exploration than I do. I do agree with him that s share buyback is not good use of PVA's limited funds right now. (That may be the CEO's bravado anyway -- for public consumption).
Hedges cover about 80 percent of oil for rest of 2014; maybe around 60 percent for 2015 and a small amount for 2016..
They will get at least $90 on the hedges already in place.
EF does have low break-even for better-producing properties, which PVA has. PVA is second in the EF in terms of per well production, which may or not be the most accurate indicator of cost structure.
It's an OK report.
A lot of good numbers if you are a potential acquirer of PVA.
They are definitely feeling the lower oil price despite the major hedging effort.
Stock repurchase -- I think it will be a token effort. They don't have the extra money to do much more than that.
How do other posters see this report?
SNY has the option to go to 30 percent ownership of REGN, I believe.
REGN has a drug development platform that can spin out drugs for a number of diseases and the clinical trials have been excellent.
Also, REGN is going to be a big leader in gene replacement -- they have Avalanche and Genzyme doing amazing work in that area.
The more SNY can be affiliated with REGN -- the better.
Buying SNY is a cheap way to get participation in the growth of REGN -- which is a premier growth pharmaceutical company.
I believe SNY can increase its stake in REGN -- it has that option.
SNY at 46 is a major steal -- yield alone is terrific.
(Perhaps they are firing the CEO because the board knows the drug pipeline is a sure winner and they want to take the credit for future success).
Would like to see some positive news after the close when PVA reports.
They have to avoid these rosy projections that they don't achieve.
I think average IP for new wells this quarter will be slightly over 1,000 barrels of oil per day.
I focus on production because I think excellent production is the best " deodorant" for overcoming all other issues that the company is dealing with.
Production gains and judicious hedging can keep PVA an attractive investment despite Saudi attempts to derail our US shale oil industry.
If other shale players cut back on drilling, PVA can drive better deals with its suppliers. Good for us.
The other thing I want to mention is this: one analyst has PVA target price of 22; another has 9. Either one of the analysts doesn't understand the company or it is possible that PVA could go either way depending on a number of factors. That's what makes the company so interesting. A variety of scenarios are possible.