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Liquidity Services, Inc. Message Board

stuartcreekfarms 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 12, 2015 11:27 AM Member since: Jan 24, 2007
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  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Nov 12, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    Based on his previous calls, I would prefer to be on the opposite side of whatever opinion he has.
    I was able to look up previous wrong calls on MYGN, HOLX and ISRG.
    Not a very impressive analyst.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Nov 12, 2015 8:23 AM Flag

    With all the #$%$ companies available to recommend "sell," this Citi analyst comes out this am with a "sell" on ARAY. The CEO just bought 50,000 shares, the backlog is up, but this analyst says now is the time to sell the stock.
    I'd like to read the report but basically it's laughable without going into details.
    The analyst says fair value for ARAY is $6 -- so what kind of "big call" is this over a buck?
    Analysts don't usually put out "sell" recommendations unless they see real trouble ahead. ARAY does not fit that description at all.
    You don't put out a "sell" over a one dollar over-valuation that you perceive. This is just grandstanding, I think.
    If an analyst sprinkles in a few "sells," he is deemed to be more independent than those who just come out with a lot of "buys."

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Nov 10, 2015 8:46 AM Flag

    This looks like an open--market purchase at 7.12 a share.
    Am I correct on that?

  • Reply to

    Any reason for the move or just blah?

    by agamemnus_0 Nov 9, 2015 9:36 PM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Nov 10, 2015 4:37 AM Flag

    Biggest ophthalmology meeting of the year later this week.
    ITEK may have some announcements to make on trial data or international partner.
    Looks like Monday's gain broke a downtrend line as well.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Nov 6, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    It's the logical "placeholder" number until more information is available.
    They needed a number and this one was as good as any for now.
    This is one of the hurdles in trying to transition a humanitarian effort to a profitable business.
    European countries are much more socialistic and will pay for any effective medical device, especially for blindness.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 29, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    Shame ARAY has to contend with the strong dollar.
    When does an acquirer come out of the woodwork?
    ARAY would be a steal at 12.

  • Not that far way fro being an everyday therapy that provides cures.
    EYES will have its place at the table, though.

  • Reply to

    You may be underestimating gene therapy

    by stuartcreekfarms Oct 1, 2015 6:47 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Oct 3, 2015 5:48 AM Flag

    Genzyme did a small trial using the AGTC AAV platform.
    Dr. Jeff Heier ran the study.
    (Genzyme was formerly a partner of AGTC but no longer)
    Dr. Heier has a few of those patients out over four years with no re-treatment.
    So the AGTC platform is at least proven in some cases.
    (The study was written up in Retinal Physician a while back but you'll have to look for it in the archives if you want to check it out).
    I believe Drs. Jean Bennett and Al Maguire (ONCE) have some long-term successful patients as well.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Oct 1, 2015 6:47 AM Flag

    I have talked to top docs in gene therapy for retinal diseases.
    Mainly at ONCE and AGTC,
    These are basically the people who cured the Briard pups about 15 years ago and now have gone on to human trials.
    There are examples of long-term successes using ONCE and AGTC adeno-associated virus (AAV) platforms. Some patients out 4 to 6 years with no need for re-treatment.
    Even the so-called "failure" at AAVL met the study endpoints though it was a poorly designed trial.
    Recent successful gene therapy trial by QURE has been totally ignored in the overall market meltdown.
    Gene therapy is here to stay -- "curing" disease with a single injection is transformative and will save the healthcare system huge money by eliminating some "chronic" diseases.
    Clearly, it will take some time.
    I look at QURE at $20 a share -- why are people paying $4 for the January 30 call?
    Why is AGTC trading for $13 when the company has $12 a share in cash and no debt?
    Might be some real values there if you look beyond the next couple of months.

  • I think there is a growing feeling that stem cell therapy will "cure"
    blindness or that gene therapy will do it.
    That's very simplistic and uninformed.
    Every case is different -- there is room for a lot of approaches.
    EYES is essentially an attempt to turn a humanitarian effort into a commercial enterprise, which is not all that easy.
    As far as the management goes, it is stellar.
    As far as the IP, it is also far and away the leader.
    From what I hear, the other prosthetic device developers are having problems with salt-water intrusion, which can short out the device after a couple of months -- must be heartbreaking for the patients.
    EYES really not much of a takeover candidate.
    I have to agree that news will drive any future gains -- and the company tends to announce good news
    fairly regularly.
    Need to get more devices implanted -- if that's a manufacturing issue it has to be a priority.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Sep 28, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    AGTC has $215 million in cash -- most came from Biogen deal.
    The stock is trading for its cash in the bank -- that's a pretty good reason for owning the stock.
    QURE proved that gene therapy works in humans -- yet all gene therapy stocks got clobbered.
    Don't give up on AGTC.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Sep 28, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    ITEK has a clear path to FDA approval.
    Company could sell international rights at any time for at least $200 million.
    Trabodenoson also could be a neuroprotective -- more value.
    Bottom should come in next month.
    This is no time to give up on ITEK.

  • Without the FDA's intervention on changing the trial endpoint AERI is a $10 stock.
    It's clear the FDA wants new glaucoma medications approved so the FDA has made it easy for AERI and ITEK to get their drugs approved.
    So now that AERI has exploded, the next logical beneficiary of the FDA's largesse is ITEK.

  • Anakem is private and European, so not so well known.
    But they are well into phase 2 in their US clinical trial.
    Like AERI, Anakem has a ROCK category glaucoma drug.
    It does not cause eye redness -- as Anakem is quick to emphasize.
    True, Anakem is a bit behind AERI in terms of a projected approval date.
    You have to factor Anakem into the equation.

  • Reply to

    AERI has a serious competitor in Anakem

    by stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 5:10 PM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Anakem is also European company -- so it flies under the radar of US investors.
    Anakem trials show no eye redness.
    It is also a ROCK drug -- so direct competition to AERI.
    I like ITEK on any dip -- if no dip ITEK may fly.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    When someone mentions that Anakem may have a better new glaucoma drug than AERI I will start taking this board seriously. Anakem drug -- no eye redness.

  • Reply to

    Really not very positive

    by stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 4:51 PM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    You are right about that.
    All this data was previously available.
    And the combination data is out there for 10 days. -- read your journals.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    As others have said, not that great and totally predictable after all that came out previously, including
    British Journal article.
    ITEK on a dip is the better buy in my opinion.
    AERI also has Anakem drug to deal with -- no eye redness problem with Anakem.
    Lots of clueless buyers AH.

  • stuartcreekfarms by stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    Totally predictable AERI data.
    I see nothing that great here.
    The British Journal of Ophthalmology reported that the combination was effective -- so big deal.
    This jump is excessive in my opinion.
    I like ITEK better -- especially at 12.50

  • Reply to

    FDA handed ITEK a "golden ticket"

    by stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 8:40 AM
    stuartcreekfarms stuartcreekfarms Sep 16, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Yes, that, too.
    Neuroprotection is a huge deal.
    It is the key to combating glaucoma and Alzheimer's, ALS and Parkinsons.
    Glaucoma docs are trying flaxseed oil and gingko biloba as possible neuroprotectives.
    That is just a shot in the dark.
    If trabodenoson proves neuroprotective, the ceiling for the stock is much higher.

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