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Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Message Board

stuckinamobile 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 15, 2015 7:52 AM Member since: Dec 31, 2007
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  • The government puts out inflated retail numbers to assist Wall Street in selling stocks and made GDP appear to be growing. The numbers are inflated to make it appear the economy is doing well so the administration can take credit. They do the same with the unemployment numbers buy simply not counting groups of people out of work. With the retail numbers, they then go back and REVISE the numbers down. This baffles me. If you notice, they revise the previous numbers down almost ever previous months. This month was no exception. There was a significant decrease especially to February and the other months. If you look at the revised numbers and not the inflated numbers, there is clear proof that the economy is not growing and retail is in decline. Now if you think manufactured stock charts indicate that people are shopping, you may want to be long in this sector. But with continuing declining sales, I think Abercrombie and Fitch will take the hardest hit of all the retailers because of its damaged brand, stale inventory, and high prices for styles available in all the other fast fashion retailers. While management calls non-GAAP accounting adjustments cost savings, they restructure their compensation to clean this company out by dumping stock compensation. There will be no return of disenchanted and offended customers who can buy the exact same styles at many other competitors.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • First, URBN has a PE of 21 vers the 130 that ANF carries. The stock is down but it does not reflect the positive outlook this retailer has going forward. It has diversified product lines, it has not offended customers, it has not cheated employees and ripped off managers, it does not have a history of lost court cases by employees and offended customers, it did not lose a religious discrimination case in the Supreme Court, it has a much better financial position and is currently slightly underpriced as opposed to ANF trading at 100% of its fair value coming off of its worst quarter ever posting a 91 cent operating loss magically non-GAAP adjusted to 54 cent loss. ANF is a black list brand. It does not matter that they have pulled the logo merchandise and do not know what to do with it, the brand is done. If you are looking for a retail stock that has value and will grow in this teen market and retail space, I recommend URBN.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I am short Abercrombie and Fitch and back up my position with fundamentals, tracking of the declining sales and increasing losses, and theories about accounting fraud and fund and institutional ownership, the second which is easy to verify buy following trade patterns. Posters pretending to be long come in with dreams, unsupported promises of stores being crowded again overnight and chart mumbo jumbo which is generally a set up move but the hedgers that control the bid and ask and close of the stock on most days. There is no triple bottom here. That is one of the most distinctive patterns that traders have made up and the claim that the pattern is present just convinced me to put this paid pumper on ignore. I will continue to point out ever time they reduce the sales and income projections. I will continue to visit stores and track the competition, I will closely follow pricing and shake my head how they magically create an impossible margin and I will ignore claims about made up chart patterns that do not exist. Rookie mistake by a paid pumper working of a cheat sheet of pump phrases to use.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Jeffries is gone, but the damage he did remains. The reason why ANF is failing in foreign markets is his arrogance. ANF entered foreign markets with the approach that what was successful in the United States, will work in foreign markets. I disagree. ANF made no adjustments for cultural or geographic differences. When they opened the China stores, Jeffries got all his American boy toys and shipped them out there on the Abercrombie jet for his flagship store opening. There were no Chinese boy toys and not a single shirtless boy could speak the local language. That was Jeffries arrogance. ANF was used to commanding markets based on the Abercrombie brand. Not anymore. This is why the flagship stores are failing and why they can not even pay the rent on the two Chinese stores. Look at ANF's competitors like Uniqio who develop and incorporate fashion collections that features fashions common to the location. ANF's approach is to dump the American brand and expect foreigners to pay a premium price for the name. This is not the case anymore. During the earnings conference management said they are relying on foreign sales. This was enough for me to short more of this overpriced stock. With the skyrocketing dollar and the arrogance of ANF not to address foreign markets correctly, foreign operations will be yet another failure for ANF.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Abercrombie is one of the top bad news stocks. Top and bottom line misses, loss exceeds lowered estimates.....and ANF rallied from 19 to 23. Overall retail sales are down and I am pretty sure (with the exception of the Las Vegas stores) that Abercrombie and Hollister sales are down. Foreign visitors are spending less because of the dollar and now see the American trends of avoiding this brand. Oh wait....that is bad news, which makes this stock with a PE of 130, a screaming buy. Make those hedge funds rich !!!! By the way, there is not a single store in the expansive economy of Greece.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • When there is no cash to take out of the company, management quickly restructures compensation so that they can take money out of the market and put it in their pockets. After all, there is not much time for ANF the way they are borrowing just to pay expenses and the dividend to the hedge funds holders of this overvalued stock. The revision to the tax treatment for the rich is also a motivation for these structured trancactions that are twisted positive by the media. They advertise some insider buying to run the stock up on the rumor that insider buying is a good sign of management confidence, and quietly issues compensation in stock and options so they can sell into the false rally. This is life on wall street, they rip you off when a company is doing well and they rip you off when a company is heading for bankruptcy. The small insider purchases that are HIGHLY ADVERTISED as a BULLISH move are just a set up for heavy insider selling of stock compensation and option that will eventually be worthless if not sold into PR stint rallies.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Fierce but patient accumulation.

    by stuckinamobile Jul 13, 2015 10:29 AM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 13, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    What does the Abercrombie cologne have to do with the stock price? They both stink really bad. While management made one of its most defining decisions earlier in the year to tone down the amount of stench they put in the air at their dark and empty stores.....The stock price remains 100% overpriced.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Fierce but patient accumulation.

    by stuckinamobile Jul 13, 2015 10:29 AM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 13, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    Seriously? Have you ever reviewed the financials of this company? Have you been following the trends of teens and what ever customer ANF pretends it is trying to attract with overpriced and STALE merchandise? Blind pumping on no real facts is a great way to be a paid pumper but I have money in the game and this company is in big trouble and you dreaming up some future while you say 15 quarters of declining everything does not matter is a joke. The stock is over 100% overvalued, the financials are manipulated and there are no customers that will pay anything over 70% off for a brand that is out of favor. The insider activity is a final desperate attempt to fleece what is left in the bank account and you sell it as some positive indicator that same store sales will magically go positive after being negative for almost three years. This is a dead brand. They will pump this quarter up with accounting adjustments so that the insiders can rip off the market as the cash flow issues will put operations at risk. Good bye to this ONCE iconic brand and dead retailer.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The management team is doing what the hedge funds tell them......Buy some stock.....Put the SEC forms out there so it looks good.....and then lets get some pumpers to say that insider buying is proof that the dead brand and declining stock is a BUY. One manufactured incident. They ignored the sales of shares by ALL TEN board members in favor of a tax purchase of ANF. Ignore 15 out of 17 quarters of declining income and sales. Keep saying that closing hundreds of stores is a positive for this retailer. Ignore the new trends in competition that is KILLING ANF in price and style. Ignore inventory issues, and ignore cash flow problems, Keep saying that the past means nothing, that growing debt is not an issues and that everything is fine because management said their goal is to stop same store sales from declining every quarter. There is no proof of anything positive, and SEC ignored accounting games and tens of millions of dollars in non-GAAP accounting games will not save this once iconic brand from heading to the resale shop with all the other brands that have come and gone.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • stuckinamobile by stuckinamobile Jul 13, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    Whatever. That is just a ploy and a set up. Just continue the dumping of these shares and focus on a few strategic and WELL ADVERTISED buys. Notice how much coverage the INSIDER action gets when it is a buy. The management team has structured a way to fleece this dying company prior to bankruptcy under tax preferred methods and this is sold as a great thing. Ignore store closing, ignore the cash flow issues, ignore the quickly growing debt, ignore the empty stores, ignore competition and just say Abercrombie is in a recovery and this is a buy. You have a TEN DOLLAR stock trading at 22.00 a share. They will manipulate the financials to make the quarter look good after they were able to get the market to ignore the worst quarter EVER with a 91 cent operating loss magically adjusted to a 54 cent loss. They will beat very low estimates and this fraud will continue till management fleeces the company and they run out of operating cash flow. Which should be soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Dreaming bulls push insiders acquiring shares of their failing company as a goo thing. I do not agree. Management is getting stock because there is no cash flow to pay them their outrageous salaries. Plus, there was a tax change that lets them treat compensation received in stock as capital losses as opposed to fully taxable compensation. ANF has selective reporting of only the buy side. You hear nothing about all the dumping of shares by the board or the officers of the company they are running into the ground. I do not think the stock transactions are a good sign for ANF.....I think it is a last ditch effort to get management to do SOMETHING because they have done nothing since the fool Jeffries has left. Reducing the smell of cologne in the stores and turning the music down is not great management decisions.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    New buyers coming in today

    by rbrentbyrne Jul 10, 2015 8:53 AM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 10, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    Seeking Alpha has been a paid pumper of Abercrombie for years. They are in the pocket of the hedge funds and institutions that manipulated the bid and ask and the small float of this controlled stock. Seeking Alpha is a paid pumper of ANF.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    only homosexuals shop at abercrombie

    by paporus Jul 10, 2015 2:32 AM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 10, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    Well this is a different target. I would think retailers WOULD WANT gays and homosexuals shopping in their stores for all the reasons you stated. They are one of the most successful and rich segment of the entire population. I read something way back that targeting this segment WAS part of their strategy. I would think it would be part of every retailers strategy. They have money and they spend it freely and wisely. Sometimes I wish I was gay so I could be more successful, educated, financially sound and stylish. But alas, I am just a short seller.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled against retailer Abercrombie & Fitch in a significant employment discrimination suit filed by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC).The case involved the company’s refusal to hire a 17-year-old woman in Oklahoma for a position at a store because she wore a “hijab,” or head scarf. The retailer said that the scarf, and all other head coverings, did not conform to the company’s dress code.

    In an 8-1 opinion, the court ruled that Abercrombie was in violation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits employment discrimination based on religion. The job applicant in this case did not ask for a religious accommodation, and the company argued it should not have been required to guess that the woman wore a head scarf for religious reasons. Good job ANF.....way to get customers in the store !!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Las Vegas store has been packed....

    by seanconnor73 Jul 9, 2015 9:38 AM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 9, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Sigh........Yes. I have to admit, I was very disappointed when I went to Las Vegas and saw the Abercrombie stores pretty crowded. There are three stores in Las Vegas. The one you mentioned in the Fashion Show mall, the Forum Shops down by Caesars Palace, and one at Town Square. They were fairly crowded when I went to them. The one thing I did notice is that the customer base was much different then I was used to. I have to be careful here not to be racist, but it was not the typical Abercrombie customer. So naturally I thought that the loss of the old standard ANF customer, was a good thing. There are exceptions, but three stores in a tourist market is not going to save this company. This is not a turn around story, those stores were always busy. The thing you need to look at is the price points. Notice that they have come down. Yet the margins are still inflated to fool investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Triple bottom on my chart

    by rbrentbyrne Jul 7, 2015 3:06 PM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 9, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    There are 4 Guess? retail stores in the area as well as three department stores that have Guess? devoted sections. Unlike Abercrombie and Fitch, the Guess? stores have remained open. Three Abercrombie stores have closed in the same area. The customer base in the Guess? stores is older and more "sophisticated" in my opinion. That is just my observation when I do my mall trips to verify that no one is in the Abercrombie and Hollister stores and I can not remember the last time I saw anyone in the Abercrombie for Kids store. I see absolutely no similarities in customer base, styling, or price points. Guess? is not competing for the teen shopper who is now in Forever 21 and H & M, I think the target customer is older and has more income. As an additional note, L Brands, which includes Victoria Secrets, which is the exact same customer as ANF announced that same store sales are down. Further proof TO ME, that ANF's problems will not only continue beyond the past 15 declining quarters but will increase as this brand is avoided by teens and any other customer base that management thinks they are targeting. Frankly, I do not think they have a clue who is NOT in their stores.

  • Reply to

    Triple bottom on my chart

    by rbrentbyrne Jul 7, 2015 3:06 PM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 8, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    (GES) Guess? is nothing at all like Abercrombie. ANF is a damaged brand and teens DISLIKE the Abercrombie brand. Guess? has a good cash position and cash flow and a broader customer market and is actually coming back as a premium brand, it is not competing with the same group as ANF where the EXACT same styles are found for much lower price points. GES ha a good yield....But nothing at all like the troubled brand of Abercrombie. In this sector I also like Ralph Lauren (RL).

  • Reply to

    Triple bottom on my chart

    by rbrentbyrne Jul 7, 2015 3:06 PM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 8, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Not sure if you are serious. But I am very serious about my position in this overvalued and manipulated stock. It is a 10 to 12 stock currently and should go down from there. Even if I am wrong and they are able to put customers back in the stores, it is still a 8 to 10 dollar stock going forward. They used to sell t. -shirts for 30 to 45 at list price. The last e-mail I got has them on sale for 7.50 to 10.00. This is not the company or the brand it used to be. It used to command and rule the teen market. By the way.....The same shirts that ANF is now selling for 7.50 to 10.00 are $5.90 or less at the competitors stores and web sites. ANF can not be getting the highest margins in the entire retail sector while they have been forced to drop prices by up to 70% just to compete and bring in ANF store traffic. The financials are in question and that is one of the many reasons I am sort this overpriced stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Triple bottom on my chart

    by rbrentbyrne Jul 7, 2015 3:06 PM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 8, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    An extremely well read investor that knows financials and can see problems and detect when a stock is being manipulated. When I find a very bad stock like ANF I attack it. I read the financials right down to the notes to the financial statements and I go over all the fraud and questionable accounting that is now called non-GAAP financials. I go over ever item of the cash flow statement and I listen to and read all the investment conference transcripts and notes. I do not follow charts and moving day averages that are driven by computer programs and instead I discuss fundamentals and financials. I do not just say ANF stock will go up on nothing but hot air. I frequently visit the four REMAINING stores in the area that have not been shut down and I do not hesitate to question customers, store managers and shoppers avoiding ANF and holding bags of clothing from competitors that are destroying Abercrombie, Hollister and the soon to close, Abercrombie for Kids. This is a bad stock. Manipulated stock. This stock is currently 110% overpriced. It is driven by fudged financials and sales and income targets that are constantly reduced and adjusted down. ANF is HEAVILY owned by some of the biggest crooked funds and institutions on Wall Street. That is the freak I am........

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Triple bottom on my chart

    by rbrentbyrne Jul 7, 2015 3:06 PM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 8, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    Really? You buy stocks on buy recommendations from paid analysts An analyst says to buy and stock and you load up? Who pay these analysts? How does an analyst make money? They are paid by the hedge funds and institutions who own stocks and can not dump them. If a hedge fund needs to run up a stock they pay an analyst firm to put a buy recommendation on the stock. This is how analyst make money. They get paid to recommend stocks. And they are NEVER held responsible for bad recommendations. NEVER. Do you ever see a sell recommendation? They are very, very rare. Instead of saying to sell overvalued stocks analyst are paid to say BUY ON THE DIPS. Analyst are paid pumpers. It is a similar pay off scheme that is used on stock boards to pay pumpers to post bull recommendations with no technical support or to just jam the board with useless posts so that the factual and fundamental messages about how bad ANF stock is are pushed down in the message list.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

ANF
19.71-0.25(-1.25%)Jul 28 4:05 PMEDT