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Blue Nile Inc. Message Board

stuckinamobile 41 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2015 11:40 PM Member since: Dec 31, 2007
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  • stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Aug 27, 2015 11:40 PM Flag

    Consumer report made some money saying this was the best car ever made. And maybe it is......Bu 98% of the population will ever be able to afford to drive one and the company will never be able to make a profit. I guess people are buying the stock because they will never be able to buy the actual car. It is sad that the stock market is base on Consumer report recommendations and hedge fund hype. Maybe if NASA keeps buying Elon's once in a wile working rockets this company can stay in business a while longer.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • They do not know how to make a profit when they have to compete. They do not. And in the existing corporate structure, they never will. You can not put out a press release saying you have hired a bunch of second tier designers let go by other firms and believe the hedge funds when they say ABERCROMBIE IS BACK. If ANF is back why was there continued decline in every measurement of sales. OH WAIT.....HOLISTER WAS NOT DOWN AS MUCH AS PERDICTED. That is not a recovery, that is just the bleeding slowing in the smaller sector of a dying brand. They have not put out the cash flow statement yet, but I can guarantee you that it will be negative and may not even cover the payments to the hedge fund owners they disguise as dividends. The profit was based on non-GAAP adjustments. After quarter after quarter of adjusting inventory down because of the LOGO decision, they all of a sudden mark inventory UP???? WDF? And then look at the expenses, they did not take many of the reoccurring expenses this quarter. Just a goose egg. They manufactured the beat of the projected loss. But in reality, ANF can not make money. Borrowing is going up very quickly and they have to borrow to pay the dividend and the rent on empty stores.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 31 billion dollar market cap. MAYBE 50,000 units this year? Other car companies sell MILLIONS of cars a year AND MAKE MONEY DOING IT, and do not have anything close to the valuation of a company that can not make a dime selling a $130,000 very nice car. The only reason this company exists is because Obama forces NASA to buy Elon's broken down rockets. It is a back door way to fund this losing operation. Let me be clear, this is a great car ......But TSLA is not a $240 stock. You are buying losses subsidized by NASA.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I have been tracking this stock for years. it is a hedge fund manipulated stock. Retail investors STAY AWAY and invest in more solid companies. Any money put here will wind up with the crooks of wall Street. Avoid this manipulated stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This was the 16th out of 18 quarter of declining numbers. Sales went down in ever sector, every geographic measure, ever store, same store and other wise. But look at the positive they come up with. Hollister was only down 1% and not the expected 4% decline. But for the year ALL three sectors of ANF are still down sharply. They were able to create a profit but reversing the inventory write down, avoid realization of restructuring and capital expenditures to upgrade stores, convert executive pay to stock compensation and by cutting expenses. They are out of room to cut expenses and completely avoid the issue of declining sales by touting the hedge fund script by saying THING WILL GET BETTER. Well they have not and they will not. Bottom line is their styles are boring and available anywhere else for 1/2 the price of their stores. LOOK......This was an ICONIC BRAND. People bought the name for years. Abercrombie was the brand to wear. Not any more. And getting rid of the brand has just made Abercrombie and Hollister just another clothing store but with more expensive retail prices and the highest rents in the business. The dollar is killing them but yet they are opening more stores over there while they continue to close domestic locations. Please tell me why closing 60 domestic stores and opening up 15 china stores and 15 outlet locations is good for the company. Margins will decline and China is not really that good for ANF. It is all smoke and mirrors and a way to distract investors who can not see that foreign operations are really bad for the bottom line. But hey.....What else can they distract you about when the domestic stores are empty and closing. ANF's PE is now comfortably above 100 as compared to all the other retailer's PE in the teens. And one of the biggest crooks in the paid analyst pool says ANF is a buy with a target of 24 dollars. Why? Because they like the styles in the empty stores. That is a shallow and baseless.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Aug 26, 2015 10:12 PM Flag

    Report this garbage spam so we can get it off the ANF board. SPAM SPAM SPAM

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • If you truly believe this was a fantastic quarter and that the significant decreasing sales over last year is a strong indicator that Abercrombie has turned everything around, continue to ignore the debt, accept all the non-GAAP accounting games as positive indicators and buy this stock. BUT IT. I personally am taking my option cash and going short more. This quarter indicated continued declining operations and confirms that they are in big trouble.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $20 is tomorow's opening

    by getdumbfast Aug 25, 2015 7:22 PM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Aug 25, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    That is in the plan....You can read it in all the paid press releases. They will beat......Big deal. The cash flow should be negative and sales will be down even with them moving 30 million from last quarter into this quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Aug 25, 2015 8:04 PM Flag

    I do not like this stock or the hedge fund control of the float. But I remember cool. It was a cool brand years ago. Number one for several years. NO MORE and that is a short.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Aug 25, 2015 8:02 PM Flag

    Remember last quarter? 91 cent operating loss and the stock went from 19 to 23 on the largest lost ever posted by ANF. This is why you load up on calls to protect the short. Because regardless of what the stock does tomorrow, it is eventually a brand that is severely damaged and will not recover.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Aug 25, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    In my opinion......Because of heavy institutional ownership and hedge fund manipulation of the trade and float.....ANF is currently over double its fair value. It's lease obligations exceed its total market value. The stores are empty and the only bull comments is that management says they will turn the company around. I watch this like a hawk and this is a 7 or 8 dollar stock. They lost 91 cents last quarter and the analyst are positive because the current quarter loss estimate has been reduced from 8 cents to 4 cents. I have never seen positive recommendations on such a underperforming retailer carrying a pe over 100. And if they lose more money this quarter, the PE will go up. They have to borrow money to pay the dividend to the hedge funds. p

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Aug 24, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    I am not sure I understand your comments. True, volume in ANF was almost 2 1/2 times normal volume today. But except for the first few minutes of trade, ANF was up most of the day and closed up over 5% to the upside when the rest of the market and EVERYONE in the sector (teen and other clothing retail) was DOWN. Every analyst says clothing shopping is down because teens want restaurant food and electronics. And back to school shopping is predicted to go down this year. I think Abercrombie's problems will continue and in fact grow as sales will continue to decline and customers do not react to the hype analysts like Piper Jaffray are paid to print. But ANF was up significantly today in light of its outrageous valuation and the prediction of another quarter of losses after posting income last year. Don't be scared of the volume, be scared of the power hedge funds have over the market and the ability to control a stock and make a profit off of you.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Sales projections adjusted down again. Quarter target is a 8 cent loss vers a 17 cent profit a year ago. PE is over 100. Cash flow issues, and stock swings up 15% based on a dream that people are buying denim at Abercrombie? MANIPULATION. Every retailer took a hit based on the reality of the economy, the pumped up fed lies, and the global economy. And ANF is up on a rumor about jeans? Every one beats ANF price on jeans. This brand is damaged and the stores are empty. The financials are bad and the projections and fundamentals are even worse. Buy calls against your short position as they are really bringing out all the crooks to trade this dead stock into earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The government puts out inflated retail numbers to assist Wall Street in selling stocks and made GDP appear to be growing. The numbers are inflated to make it appear the economy is doing well so the administration can take credit. They do the same with the unemployment numbers buy simply not counting groups of people out of work. With the retail numbers, they then go back and REVISE the numbers down. This baffles me. If you notice, they revise the previous numbers down almost ever previous months. This month was no exception. There was a significant decrease especially to February and the other months. If you look at the revised numbers and not the inflated numbers, there is clear proof that the economy is not growing and retail is in decline. Now if you think manufactured stock charts indicate that people are shopping, you may want to be long in this sector. But with continuing declining sales, I think Abercrombie and Fitch will take the hardest hit of all the retailers because of its damaged brand, stale inventory, and high prices for styles available in all the other fast fashion retailers. While management calls non-GAAP accounting adjustments cost savings, they restructure their compensation to clean this company out by dumping stock compensation. There will be no return of disenchanted and offended customers who can buy the exact same styles at many other competitors.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • First, URBN has a PE of 21 vers the 130 that ANF carries. The stock is down but it does not reflect the positive outlook this retailer has going forward. It has diversified product lines, it has not offended customers, it has not cheated employees and ripped off managers, it does not have a history of lost court cases by employees and offended customers, it did not lose a religious discrimination case in the Supreme Court, it has a much better financial position and is currently slightly underpriced as opposed to ANF trading at 100% of its fair value coming off of its worst quarter ever posting a 91 cent operating loss magically non-GAAP adjusted to 54 cent loss. ANF is a black list brand. It does not matter that they have pulled the logo merchandise and do not know what to do with it, the brand is done. If you are looking for a retail stock that has value and will grow in this teen market and retail space, I recommend URBN.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I am short Abercrombie and Fitch and back up my position with fundamentals, tracking of the declining sales and increasing losses, and theories about accounting fraud and fund and institutional ownership, the second which is easy to verify buy following trade patterns. Posters pretending to be long come in with dreams, unsupported promises of stores being crowded again overnight and chart mumbo jumbo which is generally a set up move but the hedgers that control the bid and ask and close of the stock on most days. There is no triple bottom here. That is one of the most distinctive patterns that traders have made up and the claim that the pattern is present just convinced me to put this paid pumper on ignore. I will continue to point out ever time they reduce the sales and income projections. I will continue to visit stores and track the competition, I will closely follow pricing and shake my head how they magically create an impossible margin and I will ignore claims about made up chart patterns that do not exist. Rookie mistake by a paid pumper working of a cheat sheet of pump phrases to use.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Jeffries is gone, but the damage he did remains. The reason why ANF is failing in foreign markets is his arrogance. ANF entered foreign markets with the approach that what was successful in the United States, will work in foreign markets. I disagree. ANF made no adjustments for cultural or geographic differences. When they opened the China stores, Jeffries got all his American boy toys and shipped them out there on the Abercrombie jet for his flagship store opening. There were no Chinese boy toys and not a single shirtless boy could speak the local language. That was Jeffries arrogance. ANF was used to commanding markets based on the Abercrombie brand. Not anymore. This is why the flagship stores are failing and why they can not even pay the rent on the two Chinese stores. Look at ANF's competitors like Uniqio who develop and incorporate fashion collections that features fashions common to the location. ANF's approach is to dump the American brand and expect foreigners to pay a premium price for the name. This is not the case anymore. During the earnings conference management said they are relying on foreign sales. This was enough for me to short more of this overpriced stock. With the skyrocketing dollar and the arrogance of ANF not to address foreign markets correctly, foreign operations will be yet another failure for ANF.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Abercrombie is one of the top bad news stocks. Top and bottom line misses, loss exceeds lowered estimates.....and ANF rallied from 19 to 23. Overall retail sales are down and I am pretty sure (with the exception of the Las Vegas stores) that Abercrombie and Hollister sales are down. Foreign visitors are spending less because of the dollar and now see the American trends of avoiding this brand. Oh wait....that is bad news, which makes this stock with a PE of 130, a screaming buy. Make those hedge funds rich !!!! By the way, there is not a single store in the expansive economy of Greece.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • When there is no cash to take out of the company, management quickly restructures compensation so that they can take money out of the market and put it in their pockets. After all, there is not much time for ANF the way they are borrowing just to pay expenses and the dividend to the hedge funds holders of this overvalued stock. The revision to the tax treatment for the rich is also a motivation for these structured trancactions that are twisted positive by the media. They advertise some insider buying to run the stock up on the rumor that insider buying is a good sign of management confidence, and quietly issues compensation in stock and options so they can sell into the false rally. This is life on wall street, they rip you off when a company is doing well and they rip you off when a company is heading for bankruptcy. The small insider purchases that are HIGHLY ADVERTISED as a BULLISH move are just a set up for heavy insider selling of stock compensation and option that will eventually be worthless if not sold into PR stint rallies.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Fierce but patient accumulation.

    by stuckinamobile Jul 13, 2015 10:29 AM
    stuckinamobile stuckinamobile Jul 13, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    What does the Abercrombie cologne have to do with the stock price? They both stink really bad. While management made one of its most defining decisions earlier in the year to tone down the amount of stench they put in the air at their dark and empty stores.....The stock price remains 100% overpriced.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

NILE
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