Thursday April 17, 2014 11:45
My Gold Forecast: During the past year there has been very little talk about gold, silver or gold stocks in the media. Yet the year before it was all the media could talk about and they even had the price of gold streaming live all day in the corner of the TV monitor.
I am always amazed how the masses and media can be so off in their timing of the stock market and commodities in general. For example when Greece was having issues in 2012 and everyone was avoiding investments in that country like it was the plague. Looking back now, Greece is up huge and only recently investors are confident enough to put money into the Greek stock market again.
But the truth is that big move has already happened, and the US and global markets are in rotation (changing trends). Money is slowly shifting from what has been hot during the past year or two, to new investments which have a lot more room to rise in value. And this is leads us back to my gold forecast.
If you are at all familiar with Stan Weinstein’s work, then you understand the four market stages. If not, you can learn these four stages on my Stan Weinstein page. Through stage analysis we can predict the type of price action we should expected and have a rough idea just how long a move (new trend) is likely to last. It is important to know that Stan Weinstein’s stage analysis works on any time frame from a one minute chart to a monthly chart. If you do not know this then you are trading almost blind without a doubt.
Current stage analysis looks as though the US stock market may be starting to form a stage three top. There are several indicators and market behaviors which are screaming, telling us to trade with caution to the long side. But the masses do not see this or hear what is unfolding in front of their very own eyes, and that I fine. It actually reminds me of a funny old movie called “hear no evil, see no evil”.
In short, the market is showing some signs of distribution selling in stocks, and the once market leaders are now getting completely crushed with heavy selling volume like the biotech stocks, social media stocks and other momentum stocks and this is bad.
Q: So Where Will Investment Capital Go During The Next Bear Market In stocks?
A: One of the places is precious metals and my gold forecast shows one main reason why
Gold Forecast Coles Notes:
1. The US dollar index has setup a massive stage 3 topping pattern on the weekly chart. A falling dollar will send the price of gold higher naturally.
2. Bullish gold forecasts by the media have dropped substantially, meaning everyone is bearish on gold.
3. Gold stocks are already showing signs of massive accumulation. I always use the price and volume action of gold stocks to help create and time my gold forecasts which it starting to look bullish.
Gold Forecast Conclusion:
Gold market traders should understand that precious metals in general are still months away from breaking out to the upside and starting a new bull market. Do not be in a rush to buy gold or gold stocks yet. There will be plenty of time folks.
By Chris Vermeulen
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I posted this to give an opposite view. Unlike the spammers
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This is a distressing time for gold and silver bulls like me who are constantly on the lookout for a turnaround in the precious metals sector. I’m confident that it will come but not just yet, as a final capitulation has not taken place. On 18th November we wrote the following:
This sector is to some extent in the hands of Janet Yellen and The Federal Reserve. If the economy takes a turn for the worse and she behaves as dovishly as she is portrayed then we could see an increase in QE. However, if the employment figures continue to show slow but steady progress, then there will be no increase in QE and then the outlook for these metals will look less attractive. Should tapering be introduced the US dollar will appreciate and gold, having an inverse relationship with the dollar will suffer.
The Fed appears to be satisfied that the economy is making steady, if slow progress and is on the road to recovery, hence the introduction of tapering. This programme of reducing QE possibly to zero looks set to continue and be completed towards the end of this year, barring any sudden reversal in the employment/inflation data for the US.
The perma-bulls among us are confident that the lows formed in June 2013 for gold prices represent the bottom for gold and their enthusiasm for higher prices is indeed infectious. However, we view this stance with some trepidation as we are still of the opinion that this gold bull market remains in a bear phase for now. The bears won’t always have the upper hand, but until this bear phase exhausts itself completely there is little chance of a sustainable rally in this tiny sector.
To maximise our profits we need to time our entry and exit points to the best of our ability. We all know that finding the exact bottom or top of a market is almost impossible to do, but this does not preclude us from trying to get as close as possible to these major directional changes, in this case from the bear phase to the resumption of the bull market.
As we write Gold is trading around $120/oz above the June lows, silver is about $1.50/oz above its low point and the mining sector as evidenced by the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI, is sitting about 20 points higher. This is not the picture of a runaway success story, on the contrary it depicts a sector struggling to gain any traction and lacking in conviction.
Retail investors and fund managers a-like need to have a clear view of the big picture before committing hard earned cash to any investment opportunity, failure to do so will render success as elusive as the Scarlet Pimpernel.
Gold and Silver
The sparkling days when gold hit $1900/oz are now a distant memory as gold has fallen back, rallied and fallen back again. A number of head fakes and false dawns have placed gold prices in the precarious position of approaching the summer doldrums in a state of weakness. Gold is unloved and to some extent forgotten as its current bear phase has dominated for close on 3 years now, driving the weaker hands out of the market and putting a dent in the portfolios of those brave enough to stick it out.
Silver prices have enjoyed a brief flirtation with the $22.00/oz level but failed to hold onto those gains. It is now trading at $19.58/oz which puts it back to where it was in December 2013, in a sideways trading channel.
The performance of the precious metals mining sector is predicated on the performance of the underlying asset, along with the ability to produce the metal at a price lower than the selling price. Mining costs have accelerated over recent years with some costs now standing at $1200/oz, which has to be achieved before we can talk about profits. However, when these costs have been covered every dollar earned above these levels goes straight to the bottom line. This then becomes an exciting time to be invested in the mining sector as stocks can rise, in percentage terms, 2 and 3 times more than the metal itself.
Taking a quick look at a chart of the HUI we can see just what a difficult time the miners are experiencing. A re-test of the June lows looks to be on the cards and should that support level fail to hold then we could see a re-test of the old ‘150’ level which was formed in 2008. A certain amount of euphoria was generated in the first quarter of 2014 when the miners came out all guns blazing. This rally was short lived and as of today the overall gain for this year is about 10%. When we take into consideration that these stocks had their values halved in 2013, then we can see that this move upwards is hardly a cause for celebration.
Among the many factors that we can point to as being influential for precious metals the following are just a few;
Mints around the world occasionally run out of coins and bars and are unable to meet demand.
China and India remain huge purchasers of physical gold.
Iraq bought 36 metric tons of gold last month valued at about $1.56 billion, one of the largest purchases by a country in the last three years.
The printing and debasement of paper currencies by a number of nations continues unabated.
The supply of gold to the market is said to be dwindling.
The situation in the Ukraine would appear to be getting worse despite the efforts of our political leaders and their negotiators, increasing geo-political tensions and fear.
As logical and sensible as these arguments are the fact remains that gold and silver are not heading to the moon just yet.
There could be one or a combination of reasons for this lack of progress, but the two that get our attention are the lack of a final capitulation in gold and silver prices and the reduction of QE via the Fed’s tapering programme.
Gold’s progress was characterized by a sudden steepening of the curve leading to a final blow off when the price had gotten ahead of itself. We now need to see a similar occurrence take place during a sell off. However, this sell off, as torrid as it has been lacks that final spike down which occurs when even the most ardent bulls have had a guts full and finally throw the towel in.
Gold and silver’s inability to sustain a decent rally suggests that it could re-visit and test its old June lows. Should this support fail to hold we could then experience a rather disorderly sell off taking gold back to the $1000/oz level.
The ‘sell in May and go away’ strategy may be adopted in the coming weeks which may add additional selling pressure to the mining stocks.
Also take note of the Federal Reserve Meeting planned for April 29/30th for any changes to monetary policy regarding tapering/QE/Rate changes, etc.
Finally we need to see more in the way of all around strength in this sector before we can implement an aggressive acquisitions strategy, and so we have the lion's share of our portfolio in cash.
Got a comment, fire it in, the more opinions that we have, the more we share, the more enlightened we become and hopefully our ‘well informed’ trades will generate some decent profits.
From the small team here we wish you and yours a very Happy Easter.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Bullionairhead if name calling could impart wisdom and information you would be a champion. Unfortunately all it fosters is more name calling and stupidity. Please cease and desist or take it some place else
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Reading the three clueless guys posts all coming from the same poor soul is more entertaining than Saturday Night live. Really BEANO/DUMBPLATE/GOODFORGOLD you could make a killing in comedy. Most successful comedians have mental issues too.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Free markets are a function of supply and demand whereas capital markets are a function of credit and debt
The bankers’ ponzi-scheme – which began with the distortion of free markets in 1694 when the Bank of England began issuing debt-based paper banknotes alongside the Royal Mint’s gold and silver coins – is coming to an end.
The bankers’ wildly successful and long-running scheme, dependent on the uneasy equilibrium between credit and debt, has now been irrevocably destabilized. Aggregate levels of debt are now so high that credit—no matter how cheap and available—cannot restore the balance.
The Achilles heel of the bankers’ scheme is its need to constantly expand to pay the constantly compounding debts created by capitalism’s expansion and contraction cycles; and as long as growth is relative to the supply and demand needs of the underlying economy, bankers are able to skim off societal productivity in the form of compounding interest, i.e. the bankers’ vig.
Soon, they will not be able to do so. Although charging interest is a spectacularly remunerative way to profit, its immorality has been questioned since time immemorial. The Muslim religion still bans the practice although a technical workaround is tolerated. The Catholic Church considered usury a sin and the Torah forbids Jews to charge interest to other Jews, though not to others.
Today, the bankers’ run at mammon’s considerable table is in its final stage. Credit and debt have so distorted supply and demand fundamentals that demand is no longer sufficient to insure the requisite velocity of money; and, without requisite velocity, the bankers’ increasingly sclerotic juggernaut will eventually come to a halt and their time-vulnerable debt-based tower of Babel will come tumbling down.
It happened in the 1930s. It’s happening again today.
DEBT, DISEQUILIBRIUM AND DEFLATION
…There may be equilibrium which, though stable, is so delicately poised that, after departure from it beyond certain limits, instability ensues, just as, at first, a stick may be under strain, ready all the time to bend back, until a certain point is reached, when it breaks. This simile probably applies when a debtor [goes] ‘broke,’ or when the breaking of many debtors constitutes a ‘crash,’ after which there is no coming back to the original equilibrium. To take another simile, such a disaster is somewhat like the ‘capsizing’ of a ship which, under ordinary conditions, is always near stable equilibrium but which, after being tipped beyond a certain angle, has no longer this tendency to return to equilibrium, but, instead, a tendency to depart further from it… The more the economic boat tips, the more it tends to tip. It is not tending to right itself, but is capsizing.
Irving Fisher, Debt-Deflation Theory Of Great Depressions, 1933
Irving Fisher (1867-1947), an American economist of considerable repute, is considered the ‘father of monetarism’, i.e. the quantity theory of money, Joseph Schumpeter called Fisher, ‘the greatest economist the United States has ever produced’, an accolade echoed by Milton Friedman.
Fisher’s reputation, however, is forever tarnished by remarks made prior and after the 1929 stock market crash. In addition to his credentials as an economist, Fisher was a multi-millionaire, had invested his fortune in the stock market (on margin) and believed without question the markets’ upward direction.
One week before the crash, as stock prices became increasingly volatile, Fisher reassured the nervous public the market was merely shaking out the lunatic fringe, that stock prices had achieved a permanently high plateau, that there was no cause for panic; and, after the crash, Fisher continued to tell the now devastated public that a recovery was imminent. Fisher’s reputation and net worth would never recover.
Note: In dollar terms, the stock market would not regain its pre-1929 crash valuations until 1954.
In 1933, Fisher returned to the study of economics and wrote Debt-Deflation Theory Of Great Depressions, of which the above excerpt is taken. Although not widely disseminated because of his tarnished reputation, it contains the genesis of what today is called quantitative easing, QE.
THE GREAT DEPRESSION AND FISHER’S DEFLATION/ REFLATION THEORY
The monetary phenomena of a deflationary depression occurs only after excessive credit creates a speculative bubble so massive its bursting unleashes a powerful vortex of collapsing demand and falling prices into which all productivity eventually falls making recovery impossible.
In Debt-Deflation Theory Of Great Depressions (1933), Irving Fisher put forward the idea that by intentional reflation, deflation can be stopped. Fisher’s solution was simple, i.e. that to end deflation it was only necessary to reflate prices up to the level at which outstanding debts were contracted, .i.e. to pre-crisis bubble levels.
Fisher’s unorthodox thesis posited that once pre-crisis price levels were restored – the level at which the now unpayable debts had been incurred - economic activity would naturally recommence, a highly questionable theory presented apodictically, untested by precedent and unsupported by evidence.
Fisher explained his theory and lack of evidence in this way: ..it is purposely expressed dogmatically and without proof. It does not ..[mean, however,] that I am not ready to modify it on presentation of new evidence. On the contrary, it is quite tentative. It may serve as a challenge to others and as raw material to help them work out a better product.
Due to extenuating historical circumstances, however, the beta testing of Fisher’ untried and untested deflation/reflation theory would take place in real time, 75 years later in 2008, when the very stability of the global economy would be at stake.
Milton Friedman’s acolyte, Ben Bernanke, was then Fed chairman and would put Fisher’s untested thesis to the test. In November 2008, Bernanke set in motion a highly unorthodox response to the then unfolding 2008 financial crisis, quantitative easing, QE - the unleveraged and non-sterilized purchases of assets and government debt on an historic scale. QE was also compatible with Friedman’s theory of expanding the money supply to reverse a deflationary collapse in demand.
Note: The Japanese had instituted a similar and smaller version of quantitative easing in 2001. But the intent was to promote private lending, not to reflate prices. The Japanese later concluded that QE was a failure in that regard.
Ben Bernanke was forced to implement Fisher’s questionable theory because, by 2008, the usual answer to slowing growth, i.e. lower interest rates, had proved ineffective in containing the financial crisis and had, in fact, backfired.
Ben Bernanke’s predecessor at the Fed, Alan Greenspan, after the 2000 dot.com bubble collapse, had tried to restart the US economy by simply lowering interest rates, from 6.5% to 1%. The low rates, however, unexpectedly fueled a massive property bubble in 2003 - 2006 whose bursting in 2007 led directly to the Sept/Oct. 2008 global collapse.
The solution of lower interest rates being inadequate to contain the 2008 contagion, Bernanke was forced to turn to the only remaining strategy in the Fed’s almost empty bag of tricks; and although unproven and untried, it was a nonetheless a solution proffered by his mentor’s, Milton Friedman’s economic icon, Irving Fisher.
THE REAL PURPOSE OF QE: REFLATING THE 2006 PROPERTY BUBBLE
In November 2008, Ben Bernanke began his purchase of $600 billion of mortgage-backed securities, and by March 2009, the Fed’s holdings of such securities had almost tripled to $1.75 trillion, double the balance sheet totals previously reserved for Treasuries, i.e. $700-$800 billion.
The Fed’s explosive purchases of mortgage-backed securities and housing agency debt had nothing to do with the stated goal of increasing employment, the excuse given by the Fed for QE.
Despite the trillions spent on QE, the effect on US employment rates was negligible.
Note: By purposeful misdirection, the Fed keeps its real mandate hidden. The purpose of the Federal Reserve is not full employment, price stability or even the prevention of economic crises. The real purpose of the Fed is to oversee the bankers’ diabolical and lucrative franchise of debt-based money that has promoted the unconscionable indebting of America and turned its once-free citizens into debt slaves of the few.
By massive and unprecedented intervention in the US housing market, Ben Bernanke literally bet the house, i.e. the US economy, hoping the Fed’s massive purchases of mortgage-backed securities would, according to Fisher’s deflation/reflation theory, reflate housing prices to pre-crisis, i.e. bubble, levels, i.e. 2006, and hopefully restore economic equilibrium and growth.
Not wanting to divulge the untested and unorthodox basis of QE, Bernanke was hard pressed to justify QE’s high cost considering its minimal effect on employment. Other than forcing interest rates lower and sending cheap dollars cascading into global stock markets creating more bubbles, the effect on the real economy was questionable given the trillions spent.
Nonetheless, Bernanke pressed ahead, showing a perseverance and commitment reserved only for those betting other peoples’ money. QE1 (November 2008 – March 2010) cost the Fed’s balance sheet $2 trillion, QE2 (November 2010 - June 2011) added an additional $600 billion and QE3 (September 2012 – present ) by April 2014 added $1.53 trillion to the still growing bill.
The undivulged intent of Bernanke’s quantitative easing, i.e. to reflate US housing prices to pre-crisis levels per Fisher’s deflation/reflation theory, was an almost impossible task given the extreme valuations reached at the top of the bubble in 2006.
Nonetheless, US housing prices began to revive in 2012 after a protracted five-year fall. The following chart shows the year-to-year change in housing prices, 2011 – 2012, when real estate prices finally began to recover.
YEAR-TO YEAR CHANGE IN HOUSING PRICES
S&P Case-Shiller, CNN.com February 26, 2013
Encouraged by the revived housing market, on December 12, 2012, the Fed voted to extend QE3 indefinitely; and, by June 2013, the housing news was even better as the housing recovery was now accelerating.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was up 12.1% in April, compared to a year ago, in the 20 top real estate markets across the nation. That was the biggest annual jump in prices in seven years. Prices climbed 2.5% from March, posting the biggest one-month rise in the 12-year history of the index.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/25/news/economy/housing-recovery/, June 25, 2013
The QE fueled housing recovery gave hope to the promise that Fisher’s deflation/relation theory might pay off, pre-crisis valuations could be achieved and QE would no longer be needed except to maintain price stability if required.
On that tenuously hopeful note, on June 19, 2013 Ben Bernanke announced the Fed would taper its bond purchases, i.e. QE, should the recovery continue. But because of the Fed’s purposeful misdirection, Fed watchers, focused instead on employment, saw no reason for Bernanke’s announcement that the five-year flood of Fed liquidity might end.
Around the world, liquidity-fueled stock markets fell sharply. Within a week of Bernanke’s announcement, the Dow lost 659 points; and chastened by the negative reaction of global markets, on September 18th the Fed announced any tapering of bond purchases would be delayed.
A more cynical view of events would hold that Bernanke knew the chances of housing prices reaching pre-crisis highs were non-existent, that the 2012 housing recovery was driven not by American homebuyers but by the $400 million in monthly purchases by Blackstone Group’s $2.5 billion investment in foreclosed and short-sale homes (Blackstone is now the largest US private real estate owner); and, that Bernanke merely used the good news of the real estate recovery to bail out as Fed chairman while the news was still good.
In the fall of 2013, Ben Bernanke announced he would resign. After eight tension-filled years as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke’s ivory tower hopes that Milton Friedman’s and Irving Fisher’s theories could contain the vast deflationary forces awakened by the collapse of the Fed’s serial bubbles were like America’s patrimony, gone with the wind.
In the real world, when excessive credit creates a speculative bubble so massive, its bursting unleashes a powerful vortex of collapsing demand and falling prices into which all productivity eventually falls making recovery impossible.
Richard Koo, Chief Economist at the Nomura Research Institute, best known for his study of Japan’s on-going 23 year battle with deflation, in a recent CNBC interview on April 4, 2014, Is the US Caught in a QE Trap? voiced what might be the real cost of QE, i.e. hyperinflation.
Koo maintains the US is now caught in a ‘QE trap’. That central banks which instituted QE, e.g. the US, the UK, Japan, etc., must eventually withdraw QE’s excess liquidity or risk inflation rates equal to QE’s expansion of their monetary base.
According to Koo, QE has increased the US monetary base by a factor of 19 meaning the US faces a possible inflation rate of 1,900 % unless it finds a way to safely withdraw the massive amount of latent liquidity; something no central bank has ever done or knows how to accomplish.
We are facing a deflationary collapse with the additional possibility of hyperinflation. It is not possible to know how the bankers’ debt-based paradigm will end, only that it will; and that the process, whether quick or protracted, will culminate in the complete collapse of the bankers’ ponzi-scheme of credit and debt.
Credit-based economies have a systemic bias favoring those closest to the spigots of credit. The inverse is also true, i.e. those farthest away are systemically disadvantaged. This inherent disparity has resulted in today’s highly bifurcated America, e.g. the haves and have-nots in extremis.
…since 1984, the top 0.1 percent of American households with a minimum net worth of about $20 million have doubled their share of the national wealth from about 9.6 percent to about 21.6 percent.
For almost six years, the Fed’s QE driven liquidity has disproportionately benefited the wealthy while dispossessing the middle-class and poor, reflating bubbles in stocks, housing and assets while the rest of America has been increasingly forced to subsist on falling incomes, government assistance and what little trickles down from the top 1-0.1%.
Sales of breakfast cereals, canned soups, infant formula, and toilet paper, etc. fell in the US in February.
Basic Demand and the Economy, CNBC, 4/9/2014
In America, the division between the haves and have-nots is growing. A house divided cannot stand.
As Professor Antal E Fekete has long pointed out, the significance of the removal of gold from the international monetary system has not been fully appreciated. Appreciation of its significance, however, is not a precondition for what is about to happen, i.e. the collapse of the banker’s three hundred year-old tower of credit and debt.
Unbeknownst to the kreditmeisters, gold was the cotter pin holding their wealth extraction ponzi-scheme together. When Nixon, on the advice of Milton Friedman, cut the ties between the US paper dollar and gold in 1971, he also unknowingly cut the last remaining vestige to any semblance of economic stability.
No regime of paper fiat money has ever survived the test of time as time eventually exposes paper money’s fatal flaws. That day is fast approaching for the bankers’ debt-based paper bank notes. In my youtube interview with Ralph T. Foster, Paper Money: An Invitation To Be Robbed, the author of Fiat Paper Money voices his observations about paper money’s vulnerabilities and what this means for those who have put their faith in it, see http://youtu.be/JnfyZx09WIU.
In my latest Dollars & Sense video, the subject is Freedom and the Matrix. Like money, the nature of freedom, reality and the matrix is even more opaque and even harder to understand, see http://youtu.be/kTlFeKptzO0.
The bankers’ debt-based paradigm is in its final days. After the collapse, your patience will be rewarded. Gold’s day is coming.
Buy gold, buy silver, have faith.
A better world is coming. It’s almost here.
Darryl Robert Schoon
Sentiment: Strong Buy
BEANO/DUMBOPLATE/GOOGSUREISGOOD if you don't like the company please feel free to exit. I am sure you and your alter egos will be missed far less than MARTY would be. Of course I know that as GSS goes higher in price you eventually will fade away like my old gym socks which likely smell better than your posts
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Wednesday April 16, 2014 13:32
On average, every quarter we are exposed to yet another price guidance by a mainstream analyst. Such analysts usually reside within a large investment bank. These calls become focal points for a sector and often seem to carry with them some form of self fulfilling prophecy.
What makes them qualified?
Many come directly from the big financial firms and investment houses. They are respected because of their size and brand, which gives them credibility based solely on relative visibility.
Goldman-Sachs was too big too fail; it was rescued and given banking status.
"When the world's most intelligent FDIC-backed hedge fund, pardon, bank says the current market structure is no longer necessary to Goldman, people notice, and promptly imitate".
They play their own book against their clients’ book.
They are a liquidity conduit. They are wrong in their precious metals price predictions both ways - up or down in prediction and, therefore, directional influence.
Goldman Sachs’ recent bearish view of gold is a case in point among a series of predictions.
The most recent prediction lower was made on the grounds that Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) would put pressure on gold as an alternative. Watching the TIPS would create insight on future price direction.
TIPS Yield Rates will Weigh Heavily on Gold Prices
A Treasury Inflation Protected Security is a bond which increases its principal upwards by the same amount as the rate of inflation (as reported by the Consumer Price Index). The average annual return on TIPS since its inception 10 years ago has been about 5.4%.
The point is this: The calculation method for the CPI is flawed and will always understate the true rate of inflation. Adding such a CPI figure to the anemic nominal TIPS yield will never allow investors to get ahead in real terms. Unlike TIPS, gold offers no guaranteed rate of return, but a rational investor would rather have the millennia of history validating gold as an excellent hedge against inflation rather than a return benchmarked versus the Consumer Price Index.
We all know markets are rigged - LIBOR, energy, FOREX, aluminum warehousing, plunge protection and open market operations by the Fed.
We know that mega bankers are corrupt and far above the law. We know the ratio of metals traded to physical production is way off the scale and even the COMEX reports have disclaimers.
Many of you have read the Central bank memos from GATA regarding the legally sanctioned gold price suppression scheme. And you are by now familiar with Ted Butler's work at uncovering the trading mechanisms and positioning employed.
It is common knowledge that shorting at the London open and going long on metals at the close of the Western market is a profitable trade. Yet, you still refuse to entertain the notion of market rigging in the metals whether up or down by the powers that be or their agents.
Unfortunately, many remain willfully blind to intervention in the metals with the intention of controlling price. It is as if, literally, their job tomorrow depends on not seeing this today. That may not be a stretch.
The fact is that the financial elite and economists closest to the center of that apocalypse cannot address price management.
Essentially, the credibility of these calls all comes down to a simple precedent.
They are discussing derivative prices which may influence physical value - but it's an abstraction that can disintegrate at any moment.
It is quite astounding when one realizes the depths of madness in which we live by taking a quick look at how the most respected economist and monetary leaders characterize financial conditions. It is a testimony to both the youth and quasi scientific nature of economics. It should also be a warning that things for the masses are not much like anything close to what they appear.
Dr. Jeff Lewis
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You bought nothing so you sold nothing and you have nothing and aren't you confusing this with what you post as BEANO
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I hope that some day you can actually afford to buy a share or two BEANO/NOGOODFOR ANYTHING/DUMBOPLATE
Sentiment: Strong Buy
And here is what you wrote----as DUMBOPLATE " At the end of 2013 I wrote about Golden Star Resources Ltd. (GSS)'s troublesome future and gave several reasons for my bearish stance towards the stock. A small market, high geopolitical risk in some of the countries the firm operates, along with overexpansion in times of fluctuating gold prices... " Nothing about posting someone else's article. I know it's real hard keeping up with all the BS you post under so many different alias, but thankfully there are some here who can help you keep track like MARTY and myself. And Thankyou for the entertainment. And here is your tip. You are likely the worst BS artist I have ever seen trying to get investors to sell a position.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I Have to agree with DUCBOY's assessment of your prognostications. Not only do you show your ignorance concerning GSS operation locations (Ghana one of the most political stable countries in Africa and exploratory operation in Brazil) And you also seem ignorant of recent changes in the bottom line (cost of production). And I seriously doubt if anyone who visits this board gives any credence to anything you post with the exception of your "SOCK PUPPETS" GOLDSOGOOD and BEANO. If ou would care to post something by an accredited authority (this isn't you) that reflects your agenda then maybe you might receive some of the exposure and credit that you appear to long for.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Tuesday April 15, 2014 10:27
For those of us who media often refers to as “gold bugs”, the fragility of popular sentiment toward not just gold and silver, but toward all investments generally, is the biggest barrier to a sane, free and fair market. The willingness of the majority to embrace opinions parroted by mainstream media and repeated dutifully by talking heads and other erstwhile shills for U.S. dollar interests simply because they are far more numerous than negative ones, and are delivered by talking heads, who manage billions, is frustrating.
It is no coincidence that the default definition “Gold Bug” for those who comment on and follow the performance of gold throughout history (and are often investors in precious metals) connotes insects and insanity. That suits the requirement for writers categorizing gold followers as such in lieu any cogent argument against having an interest in gold naturally. The mainstream financial media’s persistent inclination to seize upon the sensationally negative “Gold is a barbarous relic!” is highly indicative of the complete lack of perspective and research that goes into the majority of anti-gold diatribe. (This is a quote from John Maynard Keynes who could be considered the father of Monetarist policy in reference to the gold standard - not gold itself - that existed at the time).
The limited intellectual leadership of major media outlets is replicated throughout the industry by boards of directors who are sympathetic, if not downright duplicitous, with the banks who are both the source of negative sentiment broadcasts as well as broadcasters’ bead and butter.
The inability (or willful refusal) to understand gold and silver, their place in economic history, and the implications of a severely and daily manipulation of gold and silver price data across physical, futures, and derivative classes of gold and silver-denominated assets permeates the social strata from teenagers to central bankers. Their thinking about gold is informed by the mainstream financial press.
It doesn’t take much to understand why banks and media are unified in their opposition to gold and silver’s status as a global financial system bellwether when not severely manipulated.
Adding further to the frustration of clued in gold and silver commentators, is the fact that the instances and evidence pointing unquestionably to widespread manipulation by banks around the world and of all asset classes does nothing to change the average citizen’s impression of the integrity of banks and media. Especially now with the sterilization of the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (Commissioner Bart Chilton was the only one with the courage to speak up and publicly declare that something was definitely amiss in silver futures trading), we can expect the scrutiny of the markets mis-regulated by that commission to disappear and their ability to influence negative sentiment toward precious metals to increase. CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton was the instigator of an investigation into silver price manipulation in the futures market that went nowhere after 4 years
Understanding Human Phenomena is Reached by Understanding Motive
The first step in throwing off the yoke of mainstream financial media-generated innate anti-gold sentiment is to catalogue the motives that exist for banks and media to do their utmost to win broad popular disdain for precious metals as the number one standard against which all other currencies can be measured. In fact, the main compelling reason for banks to undermine popular sentiment toward gold and silver is PRECISELY BECAUSE they are the ONLY reliable standard against which the debased character of strategically manipulated and inflated fiat currencies becomes apparent.World gold production is dropping year-over-year.
At least, that is the case when the market is not subject to the intense daily price and data manipulation as it is right now. The interest groups who are typically the largest shareholders of key financial institutions such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the top tier banks and bank holding companies around the world are unified in their opposition to gold and silver because:
1. They can’t make any money when investors cash in money-losing engineered financial assets that banks sell and put it into gold, which they typically hoard;
2. The more gold and silver reflects the debased nature of any fiat currency like USD by rising in price relative to those currencies, the more investor sentiment weakens toward the engineered assets that provide the bulk of their revenue;
3. If popular opinion were to behold that, as per the price of gold measured in U.S. dollars before the exponential amplification of manipulative practices was launched against gold in September 2011, that a high gold price indicated an excess of monetary supply, and a popular desire to curb such debasement was to manifest itself, the banks arguably be required to reduce the amount of synthetic U.S. dollar denominated asset fabrication that is the basis for their growing profits.
And as for what motivates mainstream financial media to be so obedient to the dictates of their financial sector clients, well..I just said it. They are clients. Mom and Pops don’t rent Bloomberg Terminals or buy full page ads and banner ads in the Wall Street Journal. Banks, and funds that buy and sell the synthetic asset classes, do. If you don’t understand the inherent conflict of interest in all financial media relationships with advertisers who are also the provisioners of media’s data and opinions, you are a certifiable part of the problem previously stated.
Evidence of Mainstream Financial Media Opposition to Gold and Silver
So now what instances of proof can we discover to support the idea that mainstream financial media is inherently biased against precious metals? Demand for gold as a hedge against currency debasement in China is on the rise.
Well, lets examine the three largest shaper of public opinion in regard to all things financial, shall we?
1. Bloomberg is possibly the most influential publication in the world. Their presence on the desks of any serious professional trader is a given and undisputed in the financial services industry. Today (Monday April 14, 2014), Bloomberg has published two stories referencing the future performance of gold.
The first article pointing to Bloomberg’s allegiance to the banker’s meme that gold is a go-nowhere investment comes with an article published at 4:48 am ET Monday April 14, 2014 entitled, “Goldman Stands by $1,050 Gold Target on Outlook for Recovery”. In this article, Bloomberg gives free and ample coverage of Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs principle market sentiment manipulator in gold, and provides multi-paragraph repetition of his forecast for a year-end gold price of $1,050, and the reasons why.
“Gold’s 12-year bull run ended in 2013 as the Fed prepared to reduce monthly bond-buying that fueled gains in asset prices while failing to stoke inflation. Prices rose 10 percent this year even as the Fed cut purchases, with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and mixed U.S. economic data boosting haven demand. Last year, Currie described gold as a “slam-dunk sell” for 2014.”
Where, one must ask, is the ‘fair and balanced standard of journalism’ in this article? Why is there no comment from any other analyst who suggests gold prices could rise on the record-breaking investment and acquisition of gold by China’s citizens? There is none. And that, to me at least, suggests duplicity on the editorial level to one of Bloomberg’s most important clients (for Bloomberg terminal subscriptions).
It goes on to categorize gold as the “least preferred commodity among metals”, according to an April 8th note to clients by Morgan Stanley.
But then there’s the second article, published a few hours later at 9:10 a.m. ET
Superficially, it appears to be an article that is pro-gold: “Gold Bears Wager Wrong Again as Fed Talk Favors Bulls“. However, as you read through the article, while it points out that commentators making negative bets on the gold price have been uniformly wrong in the first quarter of 2014, the article’s primary editorial thrust is to provide plausible explanations as to why they were wrong (attributed to extraordinary events) while pointedly reiterating why Goldman Sacks and Morgan Stanley are bearish on gold. So it comes off, overall, to be an apologist stance for the incorrectness of gold bears in the 1st quarter.
So questions should persist in inquiring minds about this. Why does Bloomberg not report on the positive influences on the future gold price? Why is there no reference to increasing demand for gold as an investment in Asia? Why is there not one mention of the deteriorating availability of gold and silver for physical delivery from COMEX warehouses? Why is there absolutely no discussion whatsoever of the premium one must pay over the quoted price of gold if one seeks to acquire physical gold at a bullion dealer? Why is there no mention of the fact that global production of gold is decreasing even as physical demand is rising? Why is there no discussion of the “double-counting” influence of paper gold in futures and other derivatives that distort buying and selling of derivative gold assets?
Why are you not asking these questions yourself?
While it is oh-so-fashionable to dismiss everything with a knowing wave of the hand as ‘conspiracy theory’, it is historically relevant that gold continues to be the internationally acknowledged standard against which all other currencies – indeed any asset value – can be measured. My vested interest in a higher gold price is limited, at this point, and so thus is my bias. My motivation in pursuing coverage of gold stems from a natural abhorrence of ignorance. What, you should be asking yourself, is Bloomberg’s vested interest in their preferential treatment of negative gold sentiment?
By James West
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Gold rose to a two-week high following the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, which showed that projections for an interest-rate increase may be overstated. According to the Fed, several participants expressed concerns that the rate forecast could be misconstrued, indicating a move to a less-accommodative function. On a related note, Ted Dixon, INK Research founder, commented during an interview on current insider buying trends in the gold space, stating that insider buying in U.S. stocks has been languishing for a long time. But the indicator for the TSX Gold Sector shows a ratio of insider buying to insider selling of 2.5:1. This is one of the most bullish readings ever.
On Thursday, Goldcorp responded to Yamana Gold’s friendly offer for Osisko, raising its hostile bid to an implied value of $3.3 billion, roughly $1 billion more than Goldcorp’s original offer. According to Nick Pocrnic of Raymond James, it is not unreasonable to imagine Osisko’s CEO Sean Roosen, and Peter Marrone, Yamana’s CEO, appealing to the Quebec government to sweeten the Yamana offer and prevent Goldcorp from acquiring the company. This transaction highlights the recent pick up in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the gold sector. Total transaction volume for the first quarter of 2014 nearly equaled that for all of 2013, as the large cap producers got involved. What could be next? Detour Gold, Aurico Gold and Probe Mines could all add quality ounces in a safe jurisdiction.
NGEx Resources announced drilling results at its Filo Del Sol project in Argentina. The results included intercepts of 5.80 percent copper over 22 meters, and a 6-meter interval of 12.41 gram per tonne gold. The company rose 15 percent following the announcement. Lucara Diamond Corp., which produces high-value precious gems from its flagship Boteti Karowe diamond mine in Botswana, on Thursday held its first exceptional stone tender of the year, which garnered gross proceeds of $50 million, an impressive average price per carat of $42,347. Mariana Resources' shares rose after it received a $0.6 million VAT refund from the Argentinean tax authorities. The funds will be utilized to advance its gold and silver exploration properties in the highly prospective Santa Cruz province, southern Argentina.
In a highly-commented Mineweb article, author Lawrence Williams details that Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts stated categorically that the gold price is indeed manipulated by the U.S. Fed. The Fed has had to resort to this practice in order to protect the value of the U.S. dollar and its reserve currency status from its effective reduction in value through its quantitative easing (QE) policy. According to Roberts, intervention in the gold market has been occurring for a long time, but has become more and more blatant and desperate recently. Roberts says that the Fed accomplishes it through a series of gold price flash crashes by short selling huge amounts of gold futures into the COMEX market, usually at times when trading is thin.
Centamin reported that for the first quarter of 2014, total gold production from its Sukari mine in Egypt fell 19 percent quarter-on-quarter to 74,241 ounces. The result is certainly disappointing given that the company has been implementing a major plant expansion and was thought to be in a position where higher-grade, underground sections were being accessed, thus providing more ore to the mill. The production shortfall is attributed to poor mining fleet availability, with the company stating that underground mining equipment issues have been rectified by the end of the quarter.
Primero Mining provided disappointing 2014 guidance for its recently-acquired Black Fox asset. According to the miner, 2014 production will reach 70,000 to 80,000 ounces with operating costs of $850 to $900 per ounce, with a total capital expenditure bill of $48 million. The forecast compares very poorly with much more optimistic analysts’ estimates based on operating metrics observed during Brigus’ operation of Black Fox. According to BMO analyst Brian Quast, Primero’s cost assumptions appear ultra-conservative, and he expects the asset to show an improving trend going forward.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
uesday April 15, 2014 08:46
Gold is trading down more than 1.5% this morning after stalling out below our three star resistance of 1334.6-1335.5 during yesterday’s session. Profit taking around the world along with an equity market that has stabilized to begin the week and in the middle of earnings season has pressed Gold down to support at the 200-day moving average which comes in at 1300.4. Gold reached an early low of 1302.4; a close below the 200-dma will signal a failure and a likely test back towards recent lows and the 100-day moving average which comes in at 1277.4. A shelf has been built at 1312.3 which aligns with the 1314 level, this will act as resistance and only a close back above this level will help negate this early negative activity. Last a stronger US Dollar that is retesting the 80 level has had a major hand in pressing commodities priced in Dollars lower heading into this morning.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
No dumb beano alter ego you said you shorted at $0.69 last " comprehend "which we both know you couldn't do because you don't have the assets to put up to do that. Get your lies straight. I am shouting because all of you are so stupid that i hope this gets through.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
BEANO having trouble keeping all of your lies straight? You said you shorted at $0.69 so if you sold at $0.70 then you lost mooney again. Of course all of this just happens in your drug confused mind. Your Mom says clean your room.
Sentiment: Strong Buy