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Equal Energy Ltd. Message Board

subswazus 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 9, 2014 2:41 PM Member since: Jul 22, 2007
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  • Reply to

    ANALYSIS of SWIFT

    by bobacequ Sep 8, 2014 10:57 PM
    subswazus subswazus Sep 9, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    Hang on current price is close enough to 10 to tempt market makers to go for the
    stops that are just under that level. Everytime I doubt my position in SFY I look back at the price ratios: Price/ sales .8, Price/book .4 and price/cashflow 1.4 for TTM. This is a true "Value" stock and takes a solid will to keep building every time it gets taken down. Just remember the folks that maipulate it down sooner or later decide to reverse direction and we are riding the lower bollinger band now.

  • Reply to

    ANALYSIS of SWIFT

    by bobacequ Sep 8, 2014 10:57 PM
    subswazus subswazus Sep 9, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    Kel
    IMHO Sooner or later the value of the reserves will dominate the share valuation as it becomes less expensive to buy proved reserves than to buy undeveloped land. The problem with "
    Value" stocks is that investor perception and expectaitons must be reversed. The low float and
    low price of SFY are an invitation for both long and short manipulation by algorythmic trading.
    The model of easily manipulated small movements in either direction has to be broken by some external force such as accumulation of a big hunk of shares by some new force. It would seem logical that there is some floor price that would act as an attraction to that outside influence.

  • subswazus subswazus Sep 7, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    Sold SD last June as they are already on a "treadmill" with a huge amoun of capex dedicated to making up for production declines in what seems like a very marginal Mississippi Lime wells. IMHO If they really do a 200 million buyback they will severely damage their capex to return some capital to the big holders who are not seeing any economic returns on their huge investments.

  • subswazus subswazus Sep 5, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    I sold my SD holding last June because it appeared they were spending huge amounts of capex on drilling
    hundreds of wells just to stay even with production declines and that they had significant exposure to the cost of massive amounts of water disposal which IMHO is on track to replace the Fracking Boogyman in
    the environmental namely earth treamor issue in OK.

  • Reply to

    SFY

    by ddwraiggoch Sep 4, 2014 3:34 PM
    subswazus subswazus Sep 5, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    Seems all my nat gas stocks got slammed yesterday, irrespecive of the intrinsic values. Still like SFY as
    a value play and feel confidence in the holding by Fidelity Low Priced Stock Fund which is managed by
    one of Fidelity's all time great managers. Also noted SFY is in the top ten holdings of FCG ETF.

  • subswazus subswazus Sep 2, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    Was one ot the shareholders last year when it happened....The Briefing Book which the FDA used for the ADCOM was like bringing a Predator Drone to a fist fight. The FDA completely controlled the discussion to the expanded requirement to prove CV event reduction efficacy which was not part of the SPA. IMHO the uninteded consequence was they left collateral damage to their position on Triglycerides as a contributor
    to CV problems. My current opinion is that they now need to repair the collateral damage with as little embarrassment to the Agency as possible. Embarassment is everything to the bureaucracy and they now have to restore the control of Triglycerides to their play book or look scientifically stupid. They will find some way to do this without looking like they made a mistake. Resotre the SPA and set a new date for ultimate label expansion decision is my guess. Delay whcih appears as progress iss comforting to most bureaucrats that know that decisions can come back to bite them. Mybe they will be gone when the chickens come home to roost.

  • Reply to

    Is this Lynden's yearly pump and dump?

    by bonetraill Aug 13, 2014 3:20 PM
    subswazus subswazus Aug 15, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Also Stock Gumshoe guess that Kohl's tease was LYnden and a Seeking Alpha Pro, 1AUG piece that indicated it is at 1/3 of its intrinsic value appears to have "Goosed" the volume for a short period and we have now returned to boredom.

  • Reply to

    this stock is extreeeemly cheap

    by rajoilprasad Aug 13, 2014 6:45 PM
    subswazus subswazus Aug 14, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    I've experienced this movie before with small low float and asset underalued E&P. The shares just keep bouncing up and down betwwen the 2 sigma Bollinger bands unitl there is an external
    market force that wants to buy reserves on the exchange vs in the field. IMHO the low float and low price currently combine to make this a very good trading vehicle for traders who dont care about sustained moves in either direction, just keep trimming small gains from being able to move the stock in each direction. I agree with all the metrics that say it is substantially undervalued but
    that means litttle to a trader "Painting the tape" to move the shares a small increment in one direction or the other. We need a force that exceeds the ability of these small increments to move the price with relatively small amounts of money.

  • Reply to

    Up to 13 and then down again...

    by jphelps1511 Aug 11, 2014 11:54 AM
    subswazus subswazus Aug 13, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    It is my opinion that the problem is a very low float and the ease of maipulating the share price for consistant
    small gains in both directions through algorythmic machine based trading. Until some external force enters and disrupts the pattern it will continue. Note the daily volume traded in SFY is so high the an amount equal to the entire float is essentially traded every month

  • subswazus by subswazus Aug 8, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Jkust looked at SFY with one new metric question that should reflect the impact of the debt on the market value of the company. What is the current stock market value assigned to the Proved Reserves? With an Enterprise value of 1.67 Billion dollars divided by 219.2 MMBOE the market is currently valuing the proven reserve mixture of NG, NGL and Oil at $7.61 per BOE. Does anyone know what the Cash Flow Netback is for
    SFY? For some reason small Canadian producers love to report this non GAAP metric which I find very
    indicative of the health of the cash flow stream vs value of the mixed BOE metric.

  • Reply to

    Trust me...this is a STRONG BUY!!!

    by bpy03 Aug 1, 2014 4:32 PM
    subswazus subswazus Aug 2, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    I am long for all the "value" reasons but think the low float and ability to move the price on incremental volume changes has attracted traders who use computer based algorithems to tick this thing up and down while harvesting lots of consistent small changes in price....SFY is one of the few stocks that trade the equivalent of its entire float in a months time...that is not value investors endlessly buying and selling the shares.

  • subswazus subswazus Jul 9, 2014 6:23 PM Flag

    In Kansas and OKLA there are large amounts of in-situ salt water which must be pumped out of the oil and gas zones. My guess is the amount of water removed from the wells over time greatly exceeds the amount of fracking water that is disposed of in deep disposal wells.

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