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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

suchadeal1 116 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 1, 2015 2:54 PM Member since: Oct 16, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Market for Molecular

    by suchadeal1 Oct 31, 2015 7:44 AM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Nov 1, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    I forgot to highlight the HPV debacle. The company owned the market at one time before Roche had their huge clinical trial and product launch. Do you remember that brilliant campaign to advertise HPV testing on TV. They actually even decided to create a physician demand creation strategy. In the meantime, they decided not to invest in new qPCR based technology while competitors spent millions on better assay technology. How do you completely lose the revenue from your single largest cash cow with a failed strategy. I'm sure Roche and others were thanking them for all of that aggressive advertising spend. Take a look at those HPV revenue trends over the past three years. Ugly! So now they are trying to make a move in NGS? Ever hear of Illuminated, Roche, PacBio, Ion Torrent?

  • Reply to

    Market for Molecular

    by suchadeal1 Oct 31, 2015 7:44 AM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Nov 1, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    QGEN. That's another funny one. Interesting play in research markets but an also ran in clinical diagnostics. They have not been able to really expand much of a diagnostics presence. In European tenders, they are often the low price option, opting to expand share by reducing margins. A play that generally is not a winning one. In the US they have some nice sample prep options but they still struggle in top line assay development. CEO Per Schotz dresses nicely and speaks the Street language but from what I hear, he is basically a finance guy who does not get to involved on the commercial side. From my experience, the caliber of the commercial teams that I have encountered have been less than stellar .

  • Reply to

    Market for Molecular

    by suchadeal1 Oct 31, 2015 7:44 AM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Nov 1, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    Interesting choice of quarters you used for QDEL. The last 4 quarters ending with the most recent quarter actually show a modest $1.2_M profit. Q4 2014 $7M, Q12015 $3.9M, Q2 ($8.9), Q3 ($0.8). So profitability is possible but very difficult in this market.

  • Reply to

    Market for Molecular

    by suchadeal1 Oct 31, 2015 7:44 AM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Nov 1, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    Over the last 12 months, QDEL has posted a net profit. But I am more concerned about the lack of profit at CPHD. Even if you put future R&D at 10-12% of revenues, the company still does not have a cost structure that affords a profit. Most of the Comps in this space have a 35-40% product cost structure while CPHD is over 50%. How is the company going to ever show a profit with such high manufacturing costs? With no real prospects for profitability, what multiple should this company sell for?with this high of a cost structure, it certainly is not a takeover candidate. It has no prospects of turning a profit, so what is the end game here???

  • suchadeal1 by suchadeal1 Oct 31, 2015 7:44 AM Flag

    Having spent many years in the molecular space in a variety of commercial roles, I keep a keen interest in the market developments. CPHD has been the speculation of a buyout for many years due to Bishop's history of offloading Vysis to Abbott back in the early 2000's. As companies began to look at CPHD from an acquisition viewpoint, the production costs of the consumable reagent cartridge became an obvious issue. I can recall speaking with one of the Bus. members that I knew at my company about this issue. The consensus at the time was that it would be next to impossible to drive enough costs out of production to make the company profitable. Many years later, we are seeing this play out. Quarter after quarter, everyone keeps saying that they are not profitable because of R&D investment. Well, isn' t that the cost of doing business?

    By now with over $500 M in annual revenue, the company has reached critical mass where it should have certainly by now realized production savings through manufacturing scale. That has not happened. Now moving the clock forward, you see other competitors coming out with POC molecular offerings. The latest of which is Quidel, an interesting play in the space. They have a couple of systems on the market and will be introducing their own virology based pplatform for the Gates foundation in Africa in late 2016. Why do I mention them?? They are an example of a company that is actually profitable and have included design goals in the current and next gen instruments that make their consumables a reasonable component in the move to profitability.

    If you are a trader, perhaps you can make a few bucks on this one as speculators and non industry experts blindly pour money into anything that can make a quick buck. If you are an investor, you have to be more prudent with your money.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Oct 20, 2015 9:33 PM Flag

    Is the new CEO, Marc Zionts, the same guy that was in charge when Westell WSTL almost went under?? On no

  • Reply to


    by suchadeal1 Oct 28, 2014 8:10 AM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Oct 28, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Just to be clear based on your words( Yes, wtt either has or can have a monitor-control app up and running quickly), you don't know if WTT has the same app as Westell? So how well do you really know WTT? Sounds to me like WTT is falling behind the competition

  • suchadeal1 by suchadeal1 Oct 28, 2014 8:10 AM Flag

    Does WTT have anything in the works like this?

    The first of its kind, the Westell ClearLink UDIT mobile app allows technicians to monitor the UDIT in real-time, adjust RF parameters, and review alarm conditions to improve response time. The increased mobility provided by the application gives technicians another tool to help optimize the network during peak traffic – whether they are in the stands during a major event or off site.

    The UDIT mobile application, developed on native iOS and Android operating systems, features the following:
    Remote access to real-time uplink and downlink test tools including:
    UL power meters and a spectrum analysis function
    DL input and output power meters
    Remote power management via access to UL and DL attenuation settings
    Event and real-time alarm monitoring.

  • Reply to

    $2.00 After Hours...Lookout Monday!!

    by anieouz Oct 10, 2014 4:22 PM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Oct 10, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    Oh no. Somebody soldsold a whopping 177 shares after hours at $2 . The sky is falling. anieouz, go peddle your fear mongering somewhere else.

  • It is set up for a nice run with the split into 2 companies

  • suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Sep 11, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    Another brainiac here. Buy a lottery ticket instead

  • suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Aug 22, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Good point. I almost forgot that the vast majority of management/board are Finance guys per their bios My experience with companies like this tells me that typically they are more concerned about short term numbers than building a meaningful business.

  • suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Aug 22, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    Just look at the income statements for other telco vendors : ADTN, CSCO, SWIR, WSTL. All of their R&D expenditures are north of 10% of revenues. If you do some comps to other vendors' income statements, you will see that WTT has consistently spent considerably less on a per cent basis than its peers.

  • suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Aug 22, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    I forgot to add that rental income appearing last year. Also, you finally have an uptick in R&D to a less than anemic level that you saw last year. Most companies run 10% or so of sales on R&D. Management kept that number around 7% last year which is a common practice of short sighted managers trying to manage the EPS. Now you see a much higher number in R&D which represents 8.7% of sales. So between a higher R&D figure and those three benefits to income appearing last year( tax benefit, rental income and sale of nonmarketable securities) you have your answer

  • suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Aug 22, 2014 7:21 AM Flag

    And the question is???? Look at the financials. Last year they had an income benefit( non GAAP) from both a Tax Benefit and from Marketable Securities. Yes you have fewer shares today but you also have less cash to pay for those shares. Shares look to be selling at the proper valuation.

  • Reply to

    Close around 2.55 would put in a Double Bottom?

    by gumbainnj Jul 29, 2014 1:51 PM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Jul 31, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    With that selloff in WSTL, WTT now has a MKT cap that is 1/2 of WSTL on 1/3 of the sales and 1/3 of the cash.

  • Reply to

    Only $750k in R&D per qtr??

    by suchadeal1 Jul 8, 2014 5:53 PM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Jul 11, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    But you couldn't refute the fact of the people sitting on your board making strategic decisions. Where is the vision in THIS industry. A bunch of finance guys trying to engineer the numbers?

  • Reply to

    Only $750k in R&D per qtr??

    by suchadeal1 Jul 8, 2014 5:53 PM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Jul 11, 2014 7:03 AM Flag

    Let's look at the directors that are responsible for guiding the company's future: Alan Bazaar: his background is investment research and portfolio management; Paul Genova, CEO:his background was in finance previously as a CFO; Don C Bell: he ran an online advertising agency after leaving Goldman; Joseph Garrity: re ran a strategic recruiting and consulting business. The only guy with any relevant experience is Henry Bachman but he looks like he retired in 1996 having worked from 1951-1996. Really??? This is the group with cutting edge vision . Scary indeed. Seems more like this was going to be a nice payday to sit on a board of a takeover candidate. Loops, no takeover

  • Reply to

    Only $750k in R&D per qtr??

    by suchadeal1 Jul 8, 2014 5:53 PM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Jul 11, 2014 6:49 AM Flag

    I wouldn't buy this piece of.... There is no future here with a company that spends so little on the future. Since you mentioned westell on your post, I see that Google appointed their top telecom guy to westell's board. So I went on the wtt board and saw the old boys club, and I mean old and no one with cutting edge experience. A bunch of finance/investment/advertising guys. Scary. I guess Google wasn't interested here???

  • Reply to

    Only $750k in R&D per qtr??

    by suchadeal1 Jul 8, 2014 5:53 PM
    suchadeal1 suchadeal1 Jul 9, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    So what you are saying is they have to execute perfectly to develop just marginal products. Scary. By the way, you left out prototype costs, beta testing with customers, retooling parts, etc,etc. I just don't see how they compete on a shoestring budget. I think it is clear. They underspent to make the books look better in an acquisition, ala "chainsaw" Al Dunlop. Now that they have to actually run a business, and just where are all of the new products?????

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