As mentioned those two upgrades were downgrades. Kind of putting lipstick on the perverbial pig. Aziz keep in mind Anat just met with Jeffries so I am not sure what she is going to tell us that she did not tell them. Of course MG will tell us how amazing we are. It is possible that she is under promising with the hope of over delivering. By the end of the discussed period we will have spent about two years with Johns Hopkins. Have got to believe something good is going to happen but hedging ones bet is not a bad thing.
SBH, I do not think it is one person. I think it may be a number of investors. Both Geron and la jolla up today the latter by quite a bit. I think a number of our fellow shareholders are looking for an opportunity to get out. I know I have. It is not that our prospects are any less exciting, but it is clear they are going to take significant time to develop. The company is telling us that with all of their actions. I have thought of selling part of my holdings with the idea of purchasing them back at a lower price. I just don't see any immediate catalysts. The company is doing the right things and WHEN we begin to see recognition I have no doubt that the movement will be pretty fast. But with all the stuff in clinicals out there it is hard to get excited about a company with our time frame. For many years I worked for bristol Myers. When I retired the company was in the pits and had no idea what an immunotheropy was. Today they are the leaders. Hopefully our time will come, I am pretty sure it will.
I am trying not to write and get aggravated but I am trying to be realistic.
It is the same person her bio
Ms. Ling Wang, CFA serves as an Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division. Ms. Wang has been covering biotechnology and healthcare companies for over eight years. Previously, Ms. Wang was a Biotechnology and Specialty Pharma Analyst at Chardan Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division. Prior to this, she served as a Director and Senior Biotechnology Analyst at Summer Street Research Partners since July 2011. Ms. Wang catered to the biotechnology research within ...
She may have felt some sort of obligation since Jeffries did our secondary. Also we don't know if she was conducting other business in the States.
Regarding putting in a drawer, yes it does seem like the prudent thing to do. I agree with everything that SBH wrote about the potential of the company, but it is still frustrating that we are in a great market and are in one of the great sectors of that market and we can not get the commercial world interested in us. There are things that can change it but those I belive are six months or more off and yes would I like to be wrong.
To your point I will not write anymore until something significant happens.
Peace to all,
I noticed that over the past couple of months when you have responded to me occasionily those responses are taken down. You must be saying something pretty darn close to home. Same thing happened to elbit when she replied to me awhile back. Anyway Anat spoke at conferences and no one as of now seems to care. All us Bulls are getting pretty disheartened. Updated presentation on web site.
There are only two things that can make this stock jump. One is that Bayer makes some positive noise about its testing and its intent. The other is that we market 15001 our immunotheropy candidate that we have spent years testing and has the potential to cure everything. All our other stuff is to early in the pipeline to be marketed and is why there has been no deal. So though you get a thumbs up from me for your initial comment I just can't figure out what they can say that will have any positive meaningful move on the stock. Of course MG will tell us why we should be a multibillion dollar company because of our outstanding discoveries based on the scientific method. By the way in two to five years we may very well hit our potential and MG may be proven correct. But you and will have to swallow hard along the way to stay here. Stay healthy my friend because we will have to stick around quite a while.
I agree with your comment and believe we continue to establish infrastructure unfortunately the street does not see it the way we do.
I am not sure why or if anyone pays attention at all. These announcements can seem like we are no closer to getting some revenue here or moving to clinical trials. If we do not get some meaningful revenue this year we will have to dilute next year. Though I see us making much progress Compugen remains a very frustrating company.
Steven, Your point is well taken. I don't have the stats but I can find them on the odds that a preclinical will make it to clinical but they generally are not that good. I don't know how far we took them when we gave them away, but the fact that they were given away meant there was a long way to go so the odds were tough.
Re Bayer my hope is we took 15001 further but as I wrote in my Baer case and as you read in the 20f we are tremendously exposed here. The odds would say 15001 will not work, if that were to happen we would be lucky to have a 4 handle. The fact that we received a couple of mile stones and 20 months in Bayer is still investigating is somewhat positive. Few things would make me happier then an announcement that Bayer was going in the clinic but I would guess that we are six-twelve months away from that.
Past comments – I have written critically of our Univ of Pitt and Bioline deals among others that led to nothing. But in truth if any had paid off it would just have been a bit of luck. Until several years ago we did not make a concerted effort in any one area so what we gave away was very early development. It is different now, we are totally focused. Bayer may not be moving fast enough for me but milestones have been hit. This should not be discounted. Our focus has paid off with a large stable of new discoveries showing the strength of our models. For whatever reason the company has not chosen to emphasize the Merck Serano (Neviah) deal, I understand we are a minority partner and our focus is in immunoncology, but a product will be released next year based on our models. If I am going to criticize the progress re Bioline and Univ of Pitt then praise should be given on the success of Neviah.
Potential – I believe that after years of development and then floundering that Anat has put us on the right path by concentrating our development on Immunoncology. This is such a hot field that if we can show some success the financial rewards will be magnified. When I began to purchase the stock years ago the idea was that major companies would partner with us as a source of early development allowing them to reduce their research staffs. Looking back it was naïve to expect that without some sort of track record. By taking our discoveries further along the preclinical path while appearing to get a John Hopkins blessing we have a very good chance of making those partnerships. The type of real partnership deal we seek is much more lucrative then the selling of a molecule. Again, to be a partner you need an infrastructure and we are doing that now. I have always believed that we had the potential to be a multibillion dollar valued company. The decisions the company has made over the last several years will probably get us there.
Sorry there was a 3 of 3
Timing- I have argued that you don’t necessarily have to own the stock now, you can wait and see what develops and get in before any major moves. I still believe that may be true, but my experience has taught me that when it comes to timing it is very difficult to know anything, so I will continue to complain but continue to hold.
Don’t know if this was helpful or just a repeat of what you already know but again it helps me to step back and review the situation.
Several weeks ago I wrote the bear case for the stock. I thought it should be out there since companies like Compugen are highly speculative and you can’t lose sight of the fact that Compugen has many challenges ahead of it. In addition I am very frustrated by the amount of time it is taking for us to be recognized outside of the scientific community. So if I wrote a bear case and believe our stock is highly speculative why have I continued to own the amount of stock that I do?
Science – Here is a little background on Dr. Pardoll a member of our scientific committee.
“For the past two decades, Dr. Pardoll has studied molecular aspects of immune regulation, particularly related to mechanisms by which cancer cells evade elimination by the immune system. Dr. Pardoll made seminal advances in immunology including the discovery of new types of immune cells and regulatory mechanisms. He was the first to propose blockade of PD-1 for cancer therapy, and his program led the clinical development of the first PD-1 antibody. Dr. Pardoll is an internationally recognized authority in cancer immunology and immunotherapy.”
I wanted to emphasize this because he and Dr. Drake are from Johns Hopkins and Johns Hopkins chose to work with us. One could be cynical and say they are in it for the money but that is just too cynical for me. They see something worth investigating and want to be part of it. I as a layman have no idea about the relevance of Compugen’s algorithms, MG could tell me anything. These guys give me confidence that our science is darn good.
Cash- Some will disagree with me but we HAD to do the secondary when we did, whether we could have gotten an extra dollar a share I don’t know. Many shares are manipulated by investment bankers just before secondary’s come out. I have seen it time and again. If we are to become a true partner to a major organization then we had to build our infrastructure; that is we needed more scientists, accountants, business development people, etc. I do a google search virtually every day on Compugen and many times see their ads for senior scientists. We expanded business development. These are the correct things to do during this growth period. I believe we are going to be more than an early discovery company. I believe our ultimate partnerships will be significant. I thought that the company did a wonderful job in the Baze deal a couple of years back. It gave us a head start on getting our California organization with minimum dilution. So far they have done a wonderful job in managing cash. It gives me some confidence that WE WILL SEE a nice partnership deal in the intermediate future.
We are going through a tough stretch right now. Though comparisons to the prior year are pretty meaningless our first quater report will not look good from a headline perspective. Our loss will be greater then last years and the analyst average comparison will not look good since we had no additional income.
Looking at analyst estimates is just another piece of information. You can find them by looking on the summary page left side and selecting that topic.
The three analysts that somewhat follow us all appear to having a revenue deal in the second half of the year. I would think we may start to trend up at that time but until we get this first quarter report behind us it is difficult to figure out what could break the downward cycle. Very frustrating but it is what it is.
I like to see Anat in the States makes me feel like maybe we are negotiating.
I am writing a bull case for the company just as I did the bear case. It is for me though as I always say sharing these feelings is cathartic.
This has been my big question, why own now while there are no immediate catalysts. Every one has a different situation but I own 10s of thousands of shares and have owned for many years. It is not that I don't believe in the ultimate success of the company but why now. There is always a chance that Bayer makes a statement that they are going to the clinic or 15001 as Steven said might get a deal but I doubt that is going to happen in the near future. Scientific discoveries no longer move the SP. I have wanted to reduce my holdings but have not, always believed that a deal would come soon. Based on last call I no longer believe it will be soon. Just something I have to figure out. As I have said before: writing is cathartic.
Researchers offer update on immunotherapy based cancer fighting drugs
Many of the new drugs that have been developed, the authors report, are focused on "checkpoints"—molecules produced by the human body that serve the purpose of stopping the immune system from overreacting. Prior research has shown that tumors are able to manipulate checkpoints in a way that allows them to mask the tumor, preventing T cells from attacking them. Recently, drugs have been developed that can override this mechanism, or to block checkpoint molecules altogether. Ipilimumab, for example, has been found to block a type of checkpoint molecule known as CTLA-4. Two other drugs, pembrolizumab and nivolumab act on PD-1, a receptor that when stimulated can cause T cells to destroy themselves. These three drugs have all been approved for treatment of advanced cases of skin cancer.
Comment by me how can we be in this hot spot and get no recognition?
We go to all the conferences and have all these announcements and everything goes no where.
The following comment on page 34.
"during the year 2014, we achieved the first and second pre-clinical milestones with respect to one of the immune checkpoint regulators licensed to Bayer and received a total of $7.2 million in milestone payments. "
My interpretation of the comment is that as of now they are only working with one of the compounds. It is possible that the other is being worked on but has not acheived any milestones. SBH, Bayer has been at this for about 20 months none of us know the agreed upon time table we can only try to interpret what we are given. I would love us to get another milestone, with no other deals this one has to go well, if it does not our investments will drop by a significant percentage. It is one of the risks high lighted in the 20f. Let's hope we get some good commercial news relatively soon.
I will try and find it tomorrow. I did not say that they had dropped it only that as of that time they were not working on it. There is a difference
Gilli according to my interpretation of the 20f as of its publication only one compound is being looked at by Bayer. On the other hand we are mentioned in the Bayer annual report and our updated March presentation so at least we know Bayer is still our partner.
Take you number now subtract the cash. Gives you an enterprise value of around fifty. Fifty mil with a number of clinical trials, ties to Nova, toes to a couple of Asian companies. Seems pretty darn cheap
If I take your theory at face value (I did look at monster slayers mgmt), is all the current selling just ignorance. Why the need to get a $2 secondary. Realize that till we get top line results, still speculative regarding 1040
I have not read it yet just received the notice. You have to be patient and wade through. Lot but sometimes you pick up a nugget. I doubt the softness in the price is related to it but hay who knows. By the way the 20-f is like the 10k or annual report.