Irony good post. Regarding your last comment about large biotechs getting into our space, though I am not a fan of us selling out, wouldn't it be MUCH cheaper for a large company to purchase us then to try and recreate our efforts. Even if they had to pay a hefty premium?
Bauersteven12, I did not like the answer that I gave. I wanted to take another crack at it.
A couple of things. I believe Compugen ended 2103 at 8.95. Since then, it has had 15% dilution, an embarrassing CFO incident, a biotech crash, a war in Its home country, no new deals and it is selling at 8.5. All things considered the stock has held in. Why is that?
Because it is in a hot field, with recognized science. We know that by its scientific committee and by the presentations they are giving. During this period they have expanded their portfolio and if cgen is to meet its current objectives will be expanding its portfolio again in one of the most exciting areas in pharmaceuticals this year. Deals will come and they will come more quickly in the future.
Regarding Isis it gets a lot of play and it may be well deserved I do not know the company but looking at a two year chart you will see the stock was as low as 9. It has had a very up and down past. Over the next two years I don't see why we can not get a big run up in our stock.
I have to much of this stock and that has been the case for a number of years now. When MG or Anat begin to sell their stock. I will begin to sell mine. That has not happened yet.
bauersteven, I appreciate you writing this. I go through the same concerns almost every day. My hope is that we will have the valuation of isis or sgen or even incy in the not distant future. Regarding stock price of isis it ran into the same issues as cgen, sgen and many others. A bubbled biotech market that crashed. I am sure there might be one or two other factors but ultimately that's what happened.
I purchased this stock for several personal reasons years ago. MG had a track record and the idea of using algorithms to find drugs was pretty interesting. But from my perspective up until three years ago we were floundering. We had good science but had no idea what to do with it. We thought large pharmaceutical companies would just hire us to find drug candidates. The mission was wrong there was no interest and we were going nowhere.
MG finally saw the light or at least Anat told him where it was shining three years ago and finally cgen realized it had to conduct itself like every other biotech and bring their candidates along. As I think of it we were like a start up. We had a great(we hope) platform but no drugs and not a lot of money. So we began to build. MG did the Baize deal which gave us the funds to start the California operation. Anat made what appears to be a great decision by looking at immunotherapy drugs. But we were still going so slow. It feels like one program a year. Now we did a money raise. Some may not like that we did it at 10.50 but if we did it 18 months ago it would have been for less then $5 with much greater dilution. Now we are running a number of programs. I expect that over the next eighteen months will have some pretty significant deals as our programs mature. I suspect we will have some of our own in clinicals. I suspect assuming a normal market our valuation will rise quite a bit. If my expectations are wrong and we are still waiting for some indication for this to happen in the next six months, I will be paring back, foolish not to
Can not argue with your statement. If I am not mistaken on the last call, it was mentioned that another researcher in addition to Dr. Miller was being brought in. So to your point a lot of research behind something that could be a pretty big deal. When we finally license this out I hope we get one heck of a deal.
Though not stock movers these types of announcements at least indicate respect in the field.
By the way SBH, have a little nugget for you. Both Cgen and Immunocore are attending ImVacs, The Immunotherapeutics and Vaccine Summit" in August. Difference is they are attending and we are presenting. We must be doing something right...........We'll see.
Thanks SBH, everyday is a nice day :) so yes I am having a nice summer. Absolutely understand why you posted and like Bauer I immediately went to company website.
I believe you are correct that immunotherapy is hot and will hopefully cure a lot of people in the future. I have been betting that we, cgen, will be curing many folks in the future.
But you know it is what is so darn frustrating for many of us. Large pharma knows who we are, you would think they would be dying to partner with us and maybe they are but it just goes so slow. It has been a year since Bayer I don't think any of us thought it was going to take a year to get another partnership. There is a lot I could say here but it is just repeating what I and some others have said.....basically where is the beef.
Guys like Aziz and I have to be able to accept when market risk causes our stock to fall, it just tends to highlight the riskiness of this type of investment. Anyway if we cant get a deal done in this very hot area this year then you have to question what is going on and think about paring back.
However in the immortal words of Tug McGraw "You gotta believe" it will be OK. I believe w will be responsible for saving many lives and that is a good thing.
Peace please peace
SBH, how should we feel about this. Nice deal for Immunocare, which has several deals with large pharma companies, immunocare also has a phase 1/2 clinical going. It is private so have no idea of its value to Street.
We have to contend with ill timed comments by the fed chief (more on that this weekend) and a mid east war. All the "heroic" investors panic and leave.
A deal like immunocares would be very helpful I think, better yet several deals would be helpful. For whatever reason these things come very slowly to us or after discovering our checkpoints three or four years ago they remain in such early stages that we cant get what we think they are worth (a nice way of saying no one wants them)
Then again who knows what Monday will bring. My guess all will be well and those of us who stick around will be happy with what we get. As investors here we deserve every penny.
I hope for peace,
Though we have had three rather interesting announcements in the last month our stock price does not seem to recognize the potential increase in value. One of the issues we have to contend with is Ms Yellens concern that Biotech companies have stretched valuations. Those of us who believe that this is not the case for cgen can not fight a biotech sell off. Eventually we should win out with continued progress.
Thanks guys for the birthday wishes. DLP, It was a tough day for many small biotechs and though it would have been much better to see a more positive reaction on a relative basis we did better.
SBH and Cam you are correct a milestone payment is positive, that is the bottom line. Since we do not know the schedule of payments it is very difficult to tell what progress is being made or how Bayer is approaching its testing. Maybe our next call will give a clue or perhaps another payment is in the cards this year.
Anyway it is time to get a beer, the best to all.
Well the half full story is that Bayer is moving the programs along and has not returned them to us. Don't underestimate that. This is just part of the process.
Unfortunately seems like half empties are winning today. Let me be a half empty for a moment. You mean after Bayer has been working with our stuff for a year we get a milestone on one protein for $1.2 mil. Even if this works how far are we from getting to clinical trials. Is this it? Is this the update we have been waiting for? As a long term holder everything seems to take forever. Is it another lost year? When is another pharma going to partner with us already?
I am not going anywhere but I am celebrating another birthday today. Time is fleeting.
Not a big fan of their research but they did rank us a number one.
Here are 5 stocks added to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) List today:
• Arbor Realty Trust Inc (ABR)
• Banco Bradesco SA (BBD)
• Capital Bank Financial Corp (CBF)
• Cash America International Inc (CSH)
• Compugen Ltd. (CGEN)
Bummer day but 2 weeks ago I was sure we would be around $7.50. We were selling at 8 with a triple witch and a quarter ends. Smelled like trouble. Today seems like some portfolio adjusting but I admit I have no idea.
I do know this if you go to the company’s website you will notice two new events posted one in August where we will be speaking. It looks like the agenda was set before we announced 15052. We will be talking about 15049. I always like to review sponsors and other speakers. Take a look.
There is a poster presented by Dr. Joe Podojil of North Western on our fc fusion candidate 15001 in June. I like to see this since our concentration is on immune oncology but we have more. Regarding 15001 I put in a quote from the last conference call transcript.
Anat “In support of these efforts, we recently expanded our long-standing collaboration with Professor Steve Miller from Northwestern University to further study immune tolerance being used by CGEN-15001 and to start translational research using biological sensors from open immune patients. We are also about to enter a new collaboration with an addition leading expert in the field, expanding the translational research activities involving CGEN-15001.
I would like to see an announcement if possible on this new collaboration. Some of us, (me, Aziz) were very disappointed that we did not move this along to clinical trials. But if we preclinical the heck out of it will no doubt increase its value.
Anyway there are better days ahead. Second half of year only days away and that is when things will happen.
SBH, I just think this is interesting though it does not have a direct effect on us. Bristol-Myers announced some phase 3 results on their PD-! drug that appear to be quite good. I note it since this is a checkpoint drug. My bet we are pretty close to an announcement but that is just pure speculation on my part. I know patience, patience.
I look at it this way if you wait for something to come to market for science to be proven you will miss out on the most substantial gains.
But what helps us determine if the science is any good?
Another partnership 'means another set of professional eyes.
Bayer moving a drug along for obvious reasons.
A first class scientific review board, would they associate with us if science poor?
The fact that we are moving into proven scientific territory (immuno cancer therapy)
Merck Serano wanting to JV with us.
Some of the things that tell me the science is pretty good. The reason the first two are so important are for further verification. By the way we have many more shots on goal then he mentioned.
There was an additional small revision to the May presentation. Last time I mentioned that they displayed our objectives for the next 12-18 months. Management went back to showing the slide as 2014 objectives. To me it reiterates the confidence of at least another deal this year.
I am looking for a big second half, think of our inventory of products in addition to the immune oncology checkpoints, we are continuing to work through Dr. Millers lab on our immune
suppressants. Then their are the ADC's we are going to hear about later in the year. On the last phone call we were told we would get updates on Merck Serano and Bayer, if there is positive progress reported with our partners we could make a big move. A lot to look forward to. Am confident our team will execute.
Biomed, I noticed that Drake and Pardoll were part of a group that founded amplimmune which was bought out by Medimmune a sub of Astra Zeneca. So these guys are not just academics but are in it for the business side as well. Good guys to have on our team. Also amplimmune had a deal with Glaxo. Again well connected.
Patience is the greatest of all virtues. (Cato the Elder)
We are in a drought when it comes to information, however that does not mean there is nothing out there that can help us feel better or get a sense of potential.(maybe its just grasping at straws) For example there was an article published today
"Chronic inflammation may increase risk for high-grade prostate cancer"
it came from healio. About a Johns Hopkins study.
The interesting thing is at the very end where there is this disclosure
Disclosure: One researcher is a consultant/advisory board member of Bristol-Myers Squibb and Compugen, and another is a consultant/advisory board member of GlaxoSmithKline
Our SAB is going to pay off for us.
Just an aside and my opinion. We will continue to drift until the end of June, there is a triple witch and window dressing. After that I think we will turn it around. And have a very nice back end to the year.
Compugen has updated its company presentation which can be found on its website. Look under investors and then presentations. There is nothing really new here but you do get a sense of change of emphasis.
Very depressing to watch continuous slide, but can't see a change here until we are able to make some announcements. But when you get depressed look at slide 27 as an example, there you will see a comparison of cgen15049 and PD1 the hot immunotherapy checkpoint. We are only in preclinical but you have to believe someone wants in on this checkpoint.
I think slide 28 or there abouts shows goals for the next 12 to 18 months. Would have preferred it entitled six to twelve months but I think more semantics then anything else. Anyway one Day soon I expect to look at news items and to see we have something to report.
I received the following seeking alpha note this morning. I follow bmy.
"Immunotherapies dominate the agenda at ASCO
Jun 2 2014, 08:01 ET
At this week's American Society of Clinical Oncology meeting in Chicago, cancer immunotherapies are all the rage. Using the body's immune system to battle cancer is significantly extending survival times for a variety of cancers and has created the next frontier for blockbusters. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Merck (MRK), Roche (RHHBY) and AstraZeneca (AZN) are all racing to bring their offerings to market.
Some caution is warranted, however. The drugs work for only a minority of patients and they frequently have significant side effects, especially when a combination of therapies is used. For example, in a trial of BMY's Yervoy for advanced lung cancer, half of the 46 patients in the trial suffered serious side effects and three died from the drugs themselves"
There is no one checkpoint or one combination that is the silver bullet out there, so the value of our company's portfolio should be quite high. One would think that large companies would want to lock up our checkpoint discoveries. Guys like me wonder why we are not seeing more deals. Then again maybe a number of companies are trying and we will hear soon. It has been 10 months since our one and only, there are seven months left to the year. According to our last call, we should have at least one other deal and we will hear about Bayer, plus a few other things. But a deal and Bayer are the things that will drive the company's' short term success. Could still be a great year.
Recommend an article I just read entitled
"Immune Therapy’s Cancer Promise Creates Research Rush" By Naomi Kresge and Robert Langreth
Our partnership with Bayer should have been mentioned, It is a Bloomberg article but I found it on Yahoo. Continued to be a bit frustrated at the time it takes for partnerships but we will have them. no doubt about it.