A few days ago I started the topic broken record where I mentioned this deal and said we were the most undervalued company or we are being unbelievably snookered. I just don't think it is the latter. If it is the former, we basically have an enterprise value of $200 mil, now that is ridiculous. We'll see, but I think we are going to make a lot of money.
Brian Colemans analysis makes sense if we have the goods.
noticed the following deal this morning, remember German Merck is Neviah. Either we have the most undervalued stock around or we got nothing. We have to prove there is something beyond PD1. Might be type of deal MG referring to or just a bag of wind.
German Merck, Pfizer in immunotherapy deal
Posted by admin on November 17, 2014 // Leave Your Comment
Germany’s Merck KGaA said in Monday it struck an alliance over cancer immunotherapy drugs with Pfizer, triggering an upfront payment of $850 million by the U.S. drugmaker.
The two companies will develop Merck’s so-called anti-PD-L1 agent as a single therapy as well as in combinations with Pfizer’s and Merck’s portfolio of approved and experimental drug candidates.
Apart from the upfront payment, Merck is eligible to receive regulatory and commercial milestone payments of up to $2 billion.
Both companies will jointly fund all development and commercialisation costs and will share all revenues obtained from selling any anti-PD-L1 or anti-PD-1 immunotherapy products that arise from the collaboration
Aziz, your 200 million analysis is a good one. think of it, for 200 million you get a quarter share of Neviah, 11 newly discovered check points, a number of MABs, an unusual discovery platform, a deal with Bayer. Sounds pretty darn cheap to me. Not much has to work to be worth 200 mil and the upside may be terrific. But you are also purchasing a tremendous amount of unknown. We repeat the mantra daily, until you work with these molecules with a live person (clinicals) they are only smoke and mirrors. Until you sell this to a partner you have no idea if there is any value to the larger pharma companies. They may have looked and feel it is all bunk. We just don't know.
We are in mid November we are supposed to hear what is going into clinicals for 2015. If we are true to form we will hear either in late December or we will hear something at the year end call which will say that it will enter at the end of 2015 of course until the end of 2015 when we will put it off another year because we have a new strategy.
I am begging management to call my bluff, to give us some concrete information soon. To move something forward. This is literally making me sick and there are no smiley faces.
Aziz you are correct of course. Another bad day coming, no turn around in sight. I would feel better if we got some updates on molecules but that will not stop bleeding. Only a deal will and that is not coming for what will seem like an eternity.
I put no credibility to this but from Kramers website. At some point selling will end and perhaps there will be a reason to buy. Not putting much stock in Anats talk at London Jefferies conference, but it appears we will be able to hear what she has to say. Don't expect anything new but again an updated deck might be helpful.
Legendary investor Warren Buffett advises to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. One way we can try to measure the level of fear in a given stock is through a technical analysis indicator called the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which measures momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A stock is considered to be oversold if the RSI reading falls below 30.
In trading on Tuesday, shares of Compugen Ltd (CGEN) entered into oversold territory, hitting an RSI reading of 29.6, after changing hands as low as $6.77 per share. By comparison, the current RSI reading of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is 65.2. A bullish investor could look at CGEN's 29.6 RSI reading today as a sign that the recent heavy selling is in the process of exhausting itself, and begin to look for entry point opportunities on the buy side.
DLP, I don't think that is it. Other biotechs in our space rose yesterday. I don't know exactly why we are going down but I think we have mentioned all the culprits before. Year end selling, no fear by shorts( we have said we will have no deals in near future what will propel stock), folks fed up waiting, concern that our management is not truthful ( I am not saying that they are not truthful only that there is a burgeoning perception).
The bottom line is that there are more sellers then buyers and those of us, ME, who have touted the stock for years slowly coming to the conclusion that we are wrong. Dlp, the fact that you are thinking of selling or that Aziz is or I am says a lot about communications by the company.
I will probably give it another quarter or two but though we often talk about the emotions that cause us to sell at bottoms, those emotions have sometimes saved us from bigger mistakes.
I noticed dndn bankruptcy. No way of knowing if that played a part in our continuous downward slope My guess is they had a reputable management team but overextended. Also, treatment complicated and expensive though it was cutting edge.
I think those who fear and distrust here have some merit until proven otherwise. I hope that will change over next six months and we will begin to get outside confirmation through clinical trials and deals. But alas I am just repeating my frustration.
I thought we might get some form of announcement because of conferences. The upcoming London conference should cause management to at least come up with a new presentation deck.
Vicki my love, I don't take things for granted especially from those unknown to me. 1) your financial analysis is of course correct. The company should be close to beak even this quarter which is good.
2) yes we have put in for more patents, noticed a new one as of October 2 entitled LSR ANTIBODIES, AND USES THEREOF FOR TREATMENT OF CANCER 3) just noticed on Compugen website that Anat will be speaking at Jefferies conference on Nov 20 so indeed she is coming in to town.
So good for you on those but it would sure be nice regarding your feeling about deals and the price increase because it sure feels like there are a lot of doubters out there, but in fairness you said we could see 5.5 looks like someone wants everything you said to be correct.
Aziz, I very much appreciate your comment and yes we are in agreement. I still believe we have the potential to be something special. I hated to do it but I sold a very small portion of my holdings today. We have an excellent stock market that we are not participating in and with tax loss selling nearing. I thought it prudent. Sorry not as smart as you and dlp and done it yesterday. If on Monday they are bought out I did not give up very much. Not sure what triggered today, I did see something where zacks lowered our rating but zacks is so ridiculous cant imagine anyone following. On the call I wish they had just said, we are continuing to negotiate but want to wait a little while before doing a deal in order to get better terms. Why they have to come up with this new strategy stuff, I don't get it. It is what I always thought their strategy was.
I appreciate your change of heart, this is a more subdued view then in the past. In my mind if I take your current approach there is no difference between us and any other biotech. We have a touted discovery engine that will only be proven through the long term clinical process. Therefore all the past and even current claims by the company are for naught. It looks like the votes (selling of shares are going with your assessment) why own it now? We will make a claim on some new molecule that means nothing because on the FDA calendar what's it worth. When we were selling at 10/11 we should have sold.
I have touted this stock to my friends, if I lose money that is one thing. If I cause friends and relatives that is something else. You will say wait if we get to 20 in three years it is well worth the wait it is a good investment but, this investment has much risk to get that reward and our "conservative management" has continuously overstated were we are and what they have got.
Have to mull this over.
As always peace.
Thanks for comments. I am not ranting but as a long term cgen holder if you get a chance look at sgen today. Our big brother in the immunotherapy business. Makes you want to throw up doesn't it.
I want you to understand my frustration so I set this as a new topic.SBH, In your last post you pointed out that Bristol-Myers received good news on a phase 2 test of their immunotherapy drug for lung cancer. In a post a few days ago you said you expected that in 3 years our stock price should be at least $20. This is what is driving me insane about Compugen.
Bristol's news caused it to jump about 8% that equates to an additional 8 BILLION dollars in valuation. 8 Billion $ would be about 140 points to us. Imagine 140 points. What you suggest is that in three years we should have a valuation of a bit over a billion $. Yet we claim to have cutting edge discoveries in this terrifically hot area. If you look at the little data we have on cgen 15049. If you look at the slide in our presentation package it appears to be more prevalent in breast cancer then the PD's. Just imagine if we could get this in clinical trials and get some good news. Maybe it will die on the vine but we have 11 checkpoints and we are being advised by the same guys who are advising the big boys. I just don't get it. I would think Bristol would pay a billion $ for us today just to secure their pipeline.
Why does it take the company so long to pick a mab to take to clinicals?
We have been working with 15001 for at least three years. We report on it in various conferences and yet it doesn't get licensed and we don't move it to clinicals. After a while you have to wonder if any of this has any value.
Cgen has made some terrific decisions. But as stock holders we seem content with 2 or 3 point stock price increases. I am not content with that. if our discoveries are so good we should be getting recognition. There truly is much more that I could rant about, but I wont sell because I envision a multibillion $ market cap. But golly if in 2015 we don't start getting recognition, then something does not pass the smell test.
I will not write about this again.
SBH any idea why my Vivian Lewis post purged
SBH, I use writing on this board to help me with my thoughts. I consider you a good source of positive energy here. But I can not agree with you. The pain here is not for the short termers it is the long termers who have been consistently disappointed. Last year we were supposed to select something for clinicals it didn't happen. A few years ago Cantor Fitzgerald (our investment banker) wrote about us about selling our services to many large pharma companies, never happened we changed our business plan. MG said we were going to partner maybe three four years ago, never happened. Pfizer was going to review our methods and partner, never happened. Each time I could reconcile myself to the fact that though models had changed or deals did not work out we were headed in the right direction. So again we have an objective did not work out, if you go to the conference call after the Bayer deal and listen you will get the impression that deals were on the way, we had a team in place but again has not happened. To say that the stock has seen something close to the bottom, may or may not be true. We went up in a great biotech market and sold off in same. A tough market, year end selling a general fed upness with the company will send our stock to five and then below. Even a deal does not guarantee success.
I can tell you for me there are no more buying opportunities. I may or may not sell, but I am certainly not buying until it is proven to me that this is a viable business.
On the positive side, I do keep coming back to our scientific committee, I don't think they would be involved if they did not think we had a business here. It is because of that that I have some confidence this will work out. A cynic might say they are just in it for a pay check, i dont think so. I will wait a few days before making a decision on what I will do.
First chance I had. Was what I was afraid of, no deal this year. The reaction not quite as bad as it could be however, keep in mind that the stock market has done decently this year we have not and year end selling tax selling will probably hit us.
Some of us have a difficult decision to make. If you believe in what Martin and Anat are saying then go on vacation and come back in February, if you want to buy you probably don't have to be a hero and buy now wait a month.
The issue that I and several others have is do we believe them. As a long term holder this is not the first disappointment they have given us, not by a long shot. if someone wants I will give you the list. The model has changed over the years as well. This one makes the most sense. But I don't know. Since after all these years we still have an early stage pipeline that can only be validated through commercial deals or clinical trials. This is a dilemma. It is not sacrilegious to question the veracity of Anat and Martin. Not outright lying but half truths as they stall for time.
Personally, I think they have signaled todays disappointment in two places. Yesterdays sec filing that Martin would not sell stock to 2016 and the annual proxy statement where compensation rises considerably starting next year.
I expect we will see multiple deals next year, but I have thought that before.
Rather weak press release. Hope the call is better, but I think those of us hoping for commercial announcements are going to be disappointed. I want and hope I am wrong. I did not expect an announcement today but something more definitive about near future.
Good luck to us all.
I know, knee jerk reaction, but keep in mind he is saying I am going to do this in 2016. If he was doing it this year I would not be pleased but in 2016, look I am hoping the stock is at a price then that I would look to reduce some as well.