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El Paso Corp. Message Board

sumdunceinla 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 20, 2015 7:08 AM Member since: Sep 21, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Witness the GREATEST SHORT SQUEEZE of all time!

    by oil_messiah Jan 15, 2015 8:33 AM
    sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Jan 20, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    Update
    "DEBKAfile January 19, 2015, 9:16 PM (IDT)
    Israel has placed its northern military forces on the ready opposite the Lebanese and Syrian Golan borders, closed northern skies to civilian air traffic and deployed Iron Dome anti-missile missiles in the Galilee region. These preparations were made in case Hizballah decides to hit back for Israel’s targeted assassinations of six Hizballah and six Iranian officers, including an Iranian general, on the Syrian Golan Sunday. They will remain in force until further notice."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Witness the GREATEST SHORT SQUEEZE of all time!

    by oil_messiah Jan 15, 2015 8:33 AM
    sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Jan 19, 2015 8:13 PM Flag

    From the DebkaFile:
    "The dominant IDF assessment Monday, Jan. 19, is that Hizballah will not hold off its rejoinder for the Israeli helicopter missile strike on the Golan Sunday, which targeted an advance guard and caused the deaths of five Hizballah and six Iranian army officers. Tehran confirmed Monday that Gen. Mohammad Ali Allah Dadi was among the officers killed in the Israel attack.."

    It is reported that a top Iranian General was killed. The Saudis can pump a lot of oil, but don't beleive they can quell the unrest in the Mideast.....It's always been a tinder box.....

    Look up Debkafile, bookmark it if you are interested in an upfront appraisal of what is going on in the Middle East.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Witness the GREATEST SHORT SQUEEZE of all time!

    by oil_messiah Jan 15, 2015 8:33 AM
    sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Jan 16, 2015 7:19 AM Flag

    Interesting...
    "MOSCOW (AP) -- Russian markets are trading sluggishly as the country braces for the possibility that its credit rating may be downgraded to "junk" level later Friday for the first time in a decade."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sumdunceinla by sumdunceinla Dec 9, 2014 11:15 PM Flag

    I expect to see some news tomorrow on recent wells AND a good update plans going forward.....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    55% float is short ... and

    by blueiz1020 Nov 20, 2014 2:24 PM
    sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Nov 21, 2014 7:36 AM Flag

    Oil up about $1.79 this morning...GDP sitting on a treasure trove of oil. Big run up ahead....too many shares short....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sumdunceinla by sumdunceinla Nov 20, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Lots of shares short......price bumping up, shorts got to cover.....should be fun...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Nov 14, 2014 7:55 AM Flag

    EOG, perfect fit, buys GDP, that's my prediction, shorts get whacked.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Oil Price

    by sumdunceinla Nov 6, 2014 10:41 PM
    sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Nov 7, 2014 7:50 AM Flag

    Of note, disclosure this morning that Patrick Malloy, who owns about 5 million shares of GDP, purchased a million dollars worth of GDP debt....vote of confidence. That's not pocket change.....
    Shorts are going to have to make a decision here, cover or hold....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Oil Price

    by sumdunceinla Nov 6, 2014 10:41 PM
    sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Nov 7, 2014 7:39 AM Flag

    Reports in headlines this morning that Russian tanks, troops and transports are on the move, oil has spiked. Predict oil is about to get very volatile.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sumdunceinla by sumdunceinla Nov 6, 2014 10:41 PM Flag

    So why did the Saudi's flood the market with oil at this time? Did you know that the Iranian nuclear deal talks under the current deadline have until November 24th to reach a deal? So the market is flooded with oil, between the time when the price dropped and November 24th, the loss of revenue to the Saudi's will be around 5 billion over the last month or so due to the drop in oil prices. Did you know that just after the nuclear deal talks deadline, the OPEC nations are scheduled to meet? Sure, by flooding the market you stress the shale players, but face it, they are not going away. My take, if a deal is struck, I see oil prices going back to the mid 90s or more as a "reward" for coming to terms. If a deal is not made, I think there will be much volatility, both up and down in the oil markets. As I wrote above, the shale companies are not going anywhere, shale oil is a national treasure, boosts our economy and strengthens our national defense due to less reliance on foreign sources of oil. Toward the end of November, it will be interesting to see what happens...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I don't know....

    by clearwater007 Oct 30, 2014 11:52 AM
    sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Nov 4, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    According to the company press release this morning, THEY ARE NOT IN VIOLATION OF ANY BANK COVENANTS. Also, good chart in their updated presentation that illustrates the impact of 2015 hedging even if oil goes to $70. Completed some very good wells over this last quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hedges - previous post

    by sumdunceinla Nov 2, 2014 5:28 PM
    sumdunceinla sumdunceinla Nov 2, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    Also, there should be info on non core asset seas to address short term liquidity. Lots of shares short, when will they cover? When they do, it's going to be interesting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sumdunceinla by sumdunceinla Nov 2, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    posted on Oct 11
    "So who thinks GDP hedges are worth nothing? Give credit to GDP here, they have a blended 2014 oil hedge of 3,800 bbls of oil per day at $93.65 per bbl (about $32 million in 90 days) AND 30,000 MMBTU per day at $4.76 per MMBTU (about $12.85 million in 90 days) for a total revenue on hedging of about 45 million dollars. The YAHOO analyst projection for the 3rd Q is about $58 million, so the incremental revenue of about 13 million dollars in a quarter will be potentially impacted by lower oil prices during this quarter. My point is that NOT ALL THE REVENUE WILL BE IMPACTED, only the portion between what is hedged and what is NOT hedged. 2015 oil hedges are even more per bbl of oil, with a slightly less amount of oil hedged as of the LAST UPDATE. Lets see if GDP has an updated hedging schedule in the next quarterly presentation, if they hedged more, then golly gee.....they will be fine. Those that are not hedged as well will cut back, making oil drilling equipment a little more available, potentially resulting in lower lease rates. If you are a driller, do you want you equipment sitting in a yard or busy at work? Lastly, who thinks oil prices are going to decline and stay low for a quarter, a half year, or even a year? Finite resource. GDP has stated they are very careful how they enter into contracts with equipment, no LONG TERM rentals. Flexibility here. Can't wait to see if the hedging schedule has bee expanded, logically one would think some bbls might have been added on as the production profile is increasing. Lastly, they are likely to close on the sale of a non core asset and don't forget about the much talked about JV. Those shorts that think GDP is going to zero must think the hedges are worth nothing AND that oil will stay low for a LONG period of time. We will see. At these levels, GDP will be fine for quite a while."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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