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OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

summer2762 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2014 12:26 PM Member since: Apr 22, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Going forward

    by summer2762 Apr 28, 2014 9:06 PM
    summer2762 summer2762 Apr 30, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    The reason I had some shares before the P3 results is that because I did not expect the pps drop this much. I thought the pps will drop to $8 (market cap $120M).

    However, if OGX-427 Borealis-1 fails, I assume OGXI will drop further (earlier, before the results, I thought it would drop to $4, which shows how unrealistic my calculations are).

  • Reply to

    Going forward

    by summer2762 Apr 28, 2014 9:06 PM
    summer2762 summer2762 Apr 30, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    I agree that TEVA would first analyze the results. As you said, the only reason I can see they may go on with other trials is if there was any major confounding (e.g, if a large number patients were withdrawing early from this trial to switch to the never drugs).

    OGXI can do what THLD did. They can do an option to full partnership now. An upfront payment (say $30M) and then if Borealis-1 is successful, another payment (say another $30M).

    Here is what THLD did before the Phase 2 results instead of raising money.

    Under the terms of the agreement, [,,,], Threshold will receive an upfront payment of $25 million and could receive up to $35 million in additional development milestones during 2012. Threshold is also eligible to receive a $20 million milestone payment based on positive results from its randomized Phase 2 trial in pancreatic cancer. Total potential milestone payments are $525 million, comprised of $280 million in regulatory and development milestones and $245 million in sales-based milestones.

    Raising money at these levels is stupid.

  • summer2762 by summer2762 Apr 28, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    Well, we gambled and it did not work. I hope everybody is doing OK and no one invested more than he/she can afford to lose.
    I did not expect OGXI to drop this much. I assumed since everybody (except few of us) was so sure that SYNERGY would fail, the pps would drop ~20%.
    I now expect TEVA to drop OGX-011 in the next few months by compensating OGXI somehow ($20-30M?)
    I now expect OGXI to partner OGX-427 asap.
    I nearly doubled my position at OGXI today (I was not clever enough to wait until the close, so my cost average of the latest buys are ~$4.30). I will continue to buy if it continues to go down or stays at these levels.
    I probably will sell before the OGX-427 results. OGX-427 alone is worth more than $60M.

    Good luck

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