650,000 shares - as recently as a week ago; and a Fund bought another 14,000,000 shares (that's shares, not dollars worth of shares) on 10/21/2013! These guys MUST know that MCP is done going lower. With all this trouble with China - and its painful transition from an artificial infrastructure economy, to a consumer-oriented, product and services based economy - the need for REEs in China, the rest of EMs, and in the West only grows bigger.
Further, considering the various political/military insecurities in the world today - and the ever-increasing requirement for reliable, PRODUCTIVE, western-based REE suppliers - MCP is, today (finally) in the catbird's seat . . . the ONLY western-based REE operator that has a REALl product to supply.
The fact that MCP announced that it will be, in 2014, cash-flow positive - and the HUGE and INCREASING stake of long time investors in MCP . . . and the historically LOW price per share (witness MCP's stable performance during this geopolitical - word economic downturn we've recently experienced) - it appears to me (and, obviously, those Fund mgrs who keep acquiring HUGE blocks of shares) - that there's a massive play to the up side.
Finally, take a look at Yahoo Finance's "Key Statistics." MCP's short position is HUGE (50.50 percent). More telling is the fact that MCP's whopping short position is slowly, quietly DECREASING from it's high of 63 percent. . . . Guys (and gals) - the SMART shorts are booking profits - and going long. No doubt.
Russia. Business has never been better; and now that there's so much political travail in Russia - MORE people are using YNDX, just as you would for Google if we were having a similar crisis. This is a rare opportunity to buy YNDX. When the Crimea blows over, YNDX skyrockets even more.
the share (e.g., a two-for-one reverse split = twice the shares at half the price = the exact same value as you had PRIOR to the reverse split!). That said, the chart of DUST (3 X shorting the gold miners) shows that Dust is headed back UP to $22.03 (the 20 day moving average) - as there is currently underway a selling of the miners (witness the recent performance of GOLD, NEM, IAG, AUY, ABX, and GDX) - all of which have Mac'Ds that are headed to their respective zero zero lines, before, perhaps, turning back up (which, during this fall of the miners, will take DUST back over its 20 day moving average).
The miners (which pay no dividend, and which are fraught with labor and operational problems, and which no longer are viewed as "safe havens" - considering how relatively STRONG the $USD is) had a great run in the last 70 days, and are now headed lower for profit taking.
Remember, NEITHER NUGT nor DUST are long term holds - you only go long either one after a sustained downward trend, THEN (and only then) go long. Well, NUGT has had a great run; time to sell NUGT and buy DUST.
(NEM, IAG, GFI, GOLD, etc.) - and their juiced etf (GDX and GDXJ) are going to be a source of funds to either 1) buy more equities (non miners), or 2) raise cash for the anticipated Q1 fall - to re-buy when the SPX settles down and finds support. Either way, the miners are going to sell off 1/3 to 1/2 of their terrific run up.
DUST is going to move fast now (to the UP side) - I agree with "kotharivk."
and nat gas are profit taking.
BIG volume, then next support is 58.57, then 54.23, then its IPO high of 50 even (and would you want to hold TWTR into its (negative) "earnings" on Feb 5th??
and now (and nigh) is the long, painful fall to TWTR's IPO price. Many, if not most of the longs bought long from TWTR's ipo price (high was $50) to its low of $38.80 (12 trading days after its IPO) - so, if you're one of those early longs, you'll want to sell long before TWTR falls back to its IPO . . . or falls further down, as for instance, Douggy Kass predicts TWTR will settle circa $32. Follow the BIG MONEY, which is now shorting TWTR in full force.
appearing to price in an approximate TRIPLING of TWTR's share of the socially enabled ad market within 3 years. Facebook remains in possession of significant advantages as both companies compete for social ad budgets. Google/YouTube continue to be a dominant force in all other digital ad formats.
“Twitter currently trades at a premium to peers and is above our bull case, which assumes that brands will strongly embrace Twitter's Amplify TV tie-in product,” the report said. “However, as the competition for online ad revenue intensifies, we see TV ad budgets as most likely to go to the largest distribution platforms such as YouTube and Facebook first, and then later to smaller platforms including Twitter.”
And, finally, MS said there's no solace from anticipated future events: analysts are skeptical about upcoming and new products (Amplify and others not yet announced)."
Let's say MS is wrong by 20% of its $33 target price - that's still a long, long way down . . . Short, and short some more. (As I've been saying after TWTR's failure to take out $74 [enjoyed the momo ride up to $70 - 71, then went short] - TWTR is decidedly NOT like PCLN, AMZN, NFLX, FB (already in TWTR's space, and hugely profitable) - there is NOT there there, TWTR promises NOT to be profitable for the next 2 years, they haven't even had earnings yet, and they don't have the must-have moat around themselves, as do AMZN, PCLN, NFLX, etc.) . . . Were I still long, I'd take this (so far) small 5-6% pullback to sell, and sell short. Remember, your FIRST loss is your BEST loss. Just sayin' . . .
I've been long TWTR - just sold today (69.22). When it falls below 69 (esp. on volume), I'm shorting.
TWTR is decidedly NOT like AMZN, or NFLX, etc., which had the sector to themselves. TWTR has several competitors who do what TWTR does, but better, and are profitable. I'm taking profits today; will short as it falls thru 69.
The logic is so compelling: There's a massive 46% short position in MCP (don't want to be the last guy to cover); the big investors - even with MCP's latest dilution - have not sold (and they ALL purchased at higher prices); MCP will not need cash again in the near future (and mgt. said that MCP should be cash flow positive sometime in 2014, as I recall); and lastly, if ANY GOOD NEWS HAPPENS in 2014, MCP will rise HUGELY - as it did just 2 days ago (on zero news).
Do a 2 year chart of INFI. Short term resistance is at 18.35, then 23.68. Selling is now done; much higher in the days, weeks, months ahead. The "tell" was the recent downgrade (as usual, downgrade was at INFI's low) - all bad news is now baked in.
the next BIG move is to the DOWN SIDE. Most will fall circa 25% to 35% in the next week or two - which is reasonable profit taking. The home builders, like other "froth" sectors are no longer scary from a short perspective - witness TWTR, GRPN, YELP, even LNKD - so, the home builders (and the shippers - witness DRYS, DSX, PRGN, NMM) are all going to tumble from last Friday's high (12/27/2013).
The word is out (via PMs & MMs - Portfolio Mgrs and Money Mgrs) that no one is waiting for 2014, Q1 to book all 2013 profits. Right now, it's all about retaining 2013's clients going into 2014 - and NOT waiting for the very last second in an effort to squeeze every last dime out of positive holdings (because MMs already know that, if they book profits today (and tomorrow) - and forgo those (potential) last few shekels - they'll STILL retain their clients for 2014 - which, ultimately is the name of THEIR game ("2 & 20" is what ultimately motivates PMs).
a 5.1% short position - tiny . . . and the BIG MONEY (with its telling Big Volume on Friday) is saying that TWTR has much more down side to go . . . by "much more down side" I mean another 40% or so, over time. I plan to go long when it hits 37 (prior to earnings), or buy after their first, notably dismal earnings report in April - provided that the SPX has not already started heading down to its 10 yr weekly trend line support of 1410.
Not so . . . First, there will NOT be profits until 2015, or Q1 2016. Second, TWTR can NOT have a short squeeze - it's only 4% short - not exactly "squeezable."
This (6.75 years) rise in the SPX (from 3/4/2009 today) has been one of the most hated in recent history. But history tells us that an unbroken, 6.75 year market rise DOES NOT LAST MUCH LONGER - statistically we're WAAAY due for a nasty correction; that is to say, eventually even the bears will be correct - and NOW, i.e., starting last Friday 12/27/2013 to the first week in Jan 1014, the BIG MONEY is positioning for this fall . . . as they continue to chat up the market . . . I still hear Goldman's managing partner, Abby Joseph Cohen, to her unapologetic shame, telling the world (read us SMALL investors) that today (March 3, 2000) was a "great" time to invest "new money," just before ALL markets began their UNBLINKING fall to horrific levels . . . and Ms. Cohen kept say how stocks are a buy, all the way DOWN to their respective bottoms (circa 10/15/2002). That was a 2.5 year decline. [I haven't seen dear Abby, lately, on CNBC or Bloomberg . . . have you? I cannot imagine why.)
In any event, the SPX retested its 10/15/2002 support (almost reaching its 10/15/2002 low on 3/19/2003) - only to be saved (counterintuitively, unless you know how markets work) on "shock 'n awe" day (3/19/2003), as the US started bombing Bagdad. (One would intuit that Mr. Market would surely NOT find a bottom on the day we got ourselves into a war with Iraq - but the way markets work is that they cannot stand UNCERTAINTY; therefore even a BAD Bush decision to get the US in an idiotic war with Sadam is BETTER than no decision at all. Note that, as the US was "preparing" and "positioning" for war with Iraq, the SPX kept falling. It's only when the bombing ACTUALLY STARTED did the markets take their respective cues and stopped going down.)
LASTLY (and I mean it this time), PMs and MMs (Portfolio Mgrs and Money Mgrs) ALL take their collective cue from technical analysis (even the "fundamentalist" Jim Cramer, who pours over weekly charts every Sunday) . . . and the charts say SELL!!!!
Friday (12/27/2013) by Mr. Market (read Money Mgrs, Portfolio Mgrs., Large Traders) tells us that the upside for TWTR is over for now (days, weeks, and months).
I (along with other tech. analysts, including CNBC's Carter Worth) expect TWTR to trade down to $55 before finding support. Then TWTR will bounce about 10% (to circa $60), then fall BELOW expected support of $50 (IPO high), then IPO close of $45, then - unfortunately - below its all time low of $38.80 . . . then free fall as TWTR approaches Q1 earnings (which, not coincidentally, is when the SPX begins its long way down to retest long term (10 year weekly trend) support of 1410 - which will send "all" (92%) stocks tumbling down to their respective trend line support levels.
An analogous price action to TWTR (of a recent IPO) is MODN - which did beautifully at first (hitting a high of 24.80 (from a recent IPO price of circa 18+, but then quickly tumbled from 24.80 to 10.25, 8.11, then bottomed at 7.55 . . . Why? Because it went so absurdly high, so fast, when there was no there there (like TWTR), so it fell to its original IPO price, then fell MUCH further.
In any event, the entire US and Emerging Markets are WAAAAY over bought . . . even the momo players (mostly PMs - Portfolio Mgrs) are saying they are positioned for a market-wide pull back to trend line support (approx. a 23% to 25% decline . . . current $SPX 1841 - 1410 10 yrs wkly trend line support / 1841 current SPX = 23.4% decline of the SPX).
If you're not an insider, you do as the BIG Money does (i.e., "follow the BIG MONEY" - who have ALREADY STARTED positioning themselves for this anticipated decline).