Institutional hedging/suppression has turned, as planned. Tag on confirmation of a ST golden cross (20/100 hitting on ramped volume, 50/100 previously hit on ramped volume and it looks like the chart wants the 100 to support the 50....will know in coming days). All, there are no straight shots, but this one's mid and long-term confirmations are very solid. I can't guarantee tomorrow, or next week, but pull the chart back and you can see a very clear long-term message. CLDX will trade higher , likely much higher, in the coming months and years (if not bought out).
I'm with the camp that thinks this one was taken out under the table last fall. If not - a ten bag from here almost feels baked in over the next two years. If so, we're almost certainly stuck with ~ a 300% pop in the next few months. I'm fine either way, financially, but still think the company does better on its own, and can really make an impact. I'm still hoping for the hold out.
"The greatest short squeeze is created by"
I would argue, the greatest (certainly most sustainable) squeeze comes from longs who are covering (thus benefiting from) the shorts they took to hedge. My strong feel is that the overwhelming number of shorts in CLDX are covered shorts and not naked. You would have to be absolutely insane to be naked at this level, and, like them or not, most shorts are very savvy investors. Fluctuations will always persist, but we've long since bottomed and the longer-term upswing is well established. This will trade far higher before year end, buyout or not.
Agreed. The markets...in composite...over time...tend to act somewhat rationally. What happens in between is where the more active players trade cash playing poker.
One thing is certain - CLDX is strikingly undervalued, at present. Perhaps, not to the degree it was a few years ago when it was trading in the 2's, but, by some respects, you could argue more so. For a variety of reasons, I continue to think this one was bought last fall for somewhere in the 50-60 range, and that we'll get the announcement late this fall or early winter. I also continue to hope I'm wrong b/c the upside is multiples greater without the buyout. We'll know before long. Either way, investors will have done well.
Sounds fantastic! Thank you for the recommendation, Ray. I will absolutely write this one down and look into taking a look the next time we're down to see the family. Hoping to get down this Christmas...no place in America has better winter weather - tough to talk ourselves out of the trip each year.
Again - a huge thanks for thinking to share this with me, Ray. It's sincerely appreciated.
Thank you for the post, long. Your input is always hugely appreciated here.
Wonderful to hear the hurricane came and went w/o much damage. Boy, your mention of Sunset Grill and the waves crashing the dunes makes me want to get back prior to the fall. I love all of our area beaches, but none quite compare to the northern OBX, for me. We'll have to check out Agaves. Never been there, but I know exactly where it is there in the FL strip. Like you said, couldn't have picked a more perfect w-e (after the hurricane, of course). It was even beautiful here in Durham - 80's, breezy, no humidity. Great change from the days before and the one after (heat index broke 100 yesterday...not so nice). Glad you had a great trip Frank.
Our family loves Corolla. Beautiful land. Did you have a chance to hit take go out and see the wild horses along the north point, the Currituck LH and surrounding village, or the boardwalk down in Duck? Absolute favorites for our family, though we often visit in October after the crowds, heat, and rates have dropped. Were you there for the Hurricane? Looked like a quick mover, but I always worry about 12 flooding over and taking damage. I'm hoping all held up well. Only a few months until we hope to return.
Agree on more than not, Ray. The key figure you note here seems to be at the participation rate, which peaked in 2000. Most economists agree the current economic depression began in 2005, but it seems fair to argue that this did pivot prior. What's most frightening is that this continues to drag as the largest population surge ('Millenials') should be entering the work force. They haven't - some for good reasons, some for more self-serving reasons. No matter - the long-term consequences of losing this population from the work force are not pretty...for our budget or our broader stability of our society.
The best advice I can provide is to learn the science, track the real updates (long is kind enough to share many of those right here on this board), pull the chart wider (tracking daily swings can become addictive, but destructive, as they pull at emotions rather than reality), and ignore pretty much everything anybody else (including me) tells you unless it makes sense to you...and then filter what makes sense through your own DD. Very few things happen over night, but if you look carefully enough, you may be surprised what you can do with over the years.
Thank you for question. Frankly - very few buyouts are done spontaneously. Most are painstakingly well planned, particularly in this industry b/c of the length of time it takes to progress any compound from start to finish (could see this pipeline coming for a decade+; just now getting close to market). Follow the institutional changes, long and short, watch the option timing, follow the science, do your own other DD (some of the rest is tea leaves). I'll never claim to have the perfect algorithm - I simply watch patterns and have see certain things happen in my twenty years in the market. I've repeatedly noted, I'd prefer to be wrong on this one. I sincerely think we have a deep and robust enough platform to be a major biotech three years from today and a leader in the field in five going alone. Just too many signs pointing to a buyout last fall. Hope I'm wrong because I'd far rather sell in the 200's or 300's a few years from now than have my shares stolen at 50-60 later this year. Time will tell.
All the best,
"You cannot post “Thou shalt not steal,” “Thou shalt not commit adultery,” and “Thou shalt not lie” in a building full of lawyers, judges, and politicians. It creates a hostile work environment. -George Carlin"
he, he. GC - Without question, one of the greatest ever. May he RIP.
"Bristol-Myers End Up Acquiring Celldex?"
Likely already did. Still could have been (could be) somebody else, but this would be the most likely buyer. Always looked like 50-60, shortly after the run up to and after SNO. Still looks that way.
"That was virtually predictable.....they're greedy and arrogant and often over-stay when they feel they have a negative sector trend. UNTIL, THE TREND TURNS!! This SI will help fuel a serious uptrend again""
It was more than 'virtually' predictable, it was completely predictable (at least in the final months). In the long run, much in the market is sensible. In the short run, movements are a function of the puppet master. Do you think the timing of the moves were coincidence? I've posted much here I won't beat over, again (at least now), but I can almost assure you there are materially no real (naked) shorts in CLDX. We can mock and tease this crowd as we please, but they are not here...they are in many stocks, but not here. This one was very well controlled. Good news - this means materially all shorts gain money as they cover over the coming months....helping to control and sustain the rise. The right kind of short shares are a long's best friend. We have the right kind of short shares here, I'm quite confident.
"Sum, why have you come to this conclusion? And why that price range, if you are correct? Sum, you are rather serious minded, so I don't think you say such things lightly. You have my attention. I agree the drop was coordinated, but not so certain about a buyout. I'm quite certain the conversation has be had, but not so certain M and possible buyers could have come to terms M would agree with."
Great to hear from you, my old friend. I continue to hope I'm wrong, but this one has felt like this since shortly after the secondary last fall. Most recently, while I'm happy to see the recent move that immediately followed the newly granted options, this was the more telegraphed part of the process, to date... I'm pretty sure everybody here saw that part coming. Tag along the very controlled institutional increases in long and short shares, a steady move that spit in the face of all good, bad, or indifferent news/pipeline updates, recently announced increased coupling with BMY...the list goes on. Is this one in the bank? Absolutely not...but when it looks like a duck and smells like a duck...wise men get their ovens or deep fryers warming (had to toss in a little NC humor!). I've long said, I see us being a legitimate game changer, given time. If we're not bought out, I think we're holding an easy ten bagger in the next 3-4 years. I'm just skeptical about the price movement of the past 9 months. Why 50-60? History has taught me the average buyout runs ~50-75% above a stock's peak or 100-150% of what the company can raise a material amount of off-the-market institutional capital. My best guess of a buyout price, if one was negotiated last fall, is somewhere in the 50-60 range. Time will tell. The one thing I think we completely agree upon - this one has huge room to run - no matter who the owner is six months from now.
"At what point will the enormous short position capitulate? At that point, we sail to the mid $20s in no time."
Agreed. This one was telegraphed for anybody watching, objectively. Unfortunately, I only really looked at what was happening after the last dip. The move from last fall was very clearly coordinated...as will be the move back up. All can cry and whine as they please or buy the quiet buyout that took place last fall. This one looks to have been sold for 50-60/share. ~Nobody is naked short here. All who roast the shorts are kidding themselves. Shorts on the books are long fund managers who helped the move to clear a new set of options for the execs. Well done, and offered up a freebie to longtermers with cash on hand, and an excited trade for those looking to make easy money. I say - kudos! Very well played. Call it what you will, but nothing illegal was done here, from what I've seen. I will reiterate to all playing - do your own due diligence....look at every angle yourself....make your best call on what's happened over the past couple of years (and highlight the past several months)...then...and only then....make your call. I will continue to fully disclaim - I am very heavily invested in CLDX.