What was the purpose of releasing MAY numbers 2 wks before the earnings report ? It looks like the report is not that bad but it didn't meet many peoples expectations so we may lose some gains for a few days. I wonder if today is a setup for the report on the 19th.
I have a habit of checking the "career page" of all the companies I'am interested in and I just notice 2 new job openings for SPCB which is usually a good thing.
First opening is for a Mechanical Engineer who will lead in the development of products while working with outsourced contractors and R&D engineers.
Second opening is for Pre-Sale Director handling potential customers with proposals, prep, and submission of tenders leads to business opportunities. Employment to start IMMEDIATELY.
All good signs for long term growth.
How will you know when it's a good deal?
As I have already said I think all things considered that we know so far I would be a buyer in the low 8's to high 7's. I would also buy some if I see a waterfall drop in the PPS over less than a minute, that will be the stop-loss triggers and will only happen once in a day. Unless they really hit a HOMERUN, a run-up into earnings is not a good thing (sell on the news), but maybe this time I'am wrong which is not a big deal but fun to learn from.
You assumed at that time that the share price would pull back but instead it charged forward. You are hoping for a back track and that could occur. But my question is: if that doesn't happen, at what price would you buy back those shares that you sold? And, do you consider "missed profits" to be a hurt to your bottom line
I still do think the PPS will pullback but I never said when it would happen or that the PPS would stop going up on any given date. I learned along time ago you will never guess the top or the bottom of a stock.
Am I "hoping" for a pullback? Why would I hope for that when I would lose money on the stock I hold ! If SPCB did pullback I would add more if for no other reason to cancel out the loss of my core shares.
Do I consider "missed profits" hurts my bottom line? The consider REAL LOSSES a much greater risk to my bottom line. I would rather miss some gains than lose money I already had.
When will I buy? When it's a good deal I don't chase, there are a lot of great stocks out there but if given the chance to make money I would buy more. SPCB always has a pullback and if it doesn't so be it. Never fall in love with a stock. Long term I know you will do good, it's next week things will happen !
earnings are coming - could the quarter possibly beat all of 2013? comments welcomed...
I think they will beat E,R,and G, but that will not mean the PPS will soar or even hold. Just don't count on anything "SHORT TERM". LONG TERM things should be great. A lot of games will be played with the hedge funds after earnings. When the Volume slows down the games will be over, 2-3 days.
BUT, everything you said are NEGATIVES.
You have completely ignored the possibility of POSITIVES happening.
Sorry, but that's just the way I approach investing, I pay more attention to the negative FACTS and a little to the neg. posters, then I make up my own mind if I can agree or not. To me the positives are a given, I already believe in the stock. The positives will only help me I don't need to build them up, but the negatives can hurt your bottom line if you just "wish" them away and follow the pep rally.
First I would never sell all my SPBC stock but it seems to me there are some things to consider.
1. A stock normally DOESN'T JUMP UP 30% without some back and fill.
2. Stocks that ramp up on the rumor usually sell on the news and for those people that think they will just sell half on Monday the day of ER remember many others may be thinking the same thing.
3 This is a hard stock to get the numbers on before earnings so don't just THINK you know what the numbers will be.
4. When a stock is near the high is a perfect time for mgmt. to spring a stock offering on us and NOTHING kills a PPS faster than an offering. Here is a statement from the last SEC Filing...........
As of May 1 , 2014, 13,774,584 Ordinary Shares of the Company's 15,000,000 Ordinary Shares were issued or reserved for issuance under the Company's option plans.
Our Board of Directors has unanimously adopted a resolution recommending that our shareholders increase our authorized ordinary share capital to NIS 4,500,000 divided into 18,000,000 Ordinary Shares of NIS 0.25 par values each, and to amend our Memorandum of Association and Articles of Association to reflect such increase
As for those that are thinking of locking in some gains I find that selling half to me is a win-win ! If the PPS goes up you still have gains on the half you held. If the stock goes down, and you believe in the stock, you can buy the half you sold at a cheaper price and off- set the loss on the shares you held.
Whatever you do Good Luck! I still think I will be able add in the low 8's or high 7's but that's only my guess and I always guess BEFORE things happen. I believe in the FACTS and the ODDS.
One year from the original closing in September 2013.
What other stocks have you interest based on future expectations ?
As you know I hold the past as an indication first before I search further into future expectations. A 52wk chart on swhc, rdnt, rfmd, cpe, idti, iqnt and rad show the pattern I look for but I do not believe in T/A.
Good Luck !
I guess that is the difference between those who invest based upon Technical Analysis and than those who place more relevance in fundamental research. Less
I think you may read me all wrong. I HATE T/A because most people that use it think it should be the ONLY TOOL IN THE TOOL BOX ! I do use charts to show me the company has done it before therefore can do it again. It brings out the past which are FACTS. I invest on the FACTS not bells, promises,opinions , pep rallies or wishful thinking. I also let "INDEPENDENT RESEARCH FIRMS, that do not BUY, SELL or HOLD any stock and are PAID BY INVESTORS not a public traded company. ZACKS saves me a lot of time and work. Most of the time they are right, sometimes they are wrong but they have access to fundamental research you and I don't have and are well worth the money. Just some ideas.
but, they've indicated financing is not a problem, so don't see an offering anywhere in the near future.
That's not how they do offerings today. A growing company is looking for takeovers and a great deal and something that fits in their business plan. In an effort to move fast to make a deal a company will file with the SEC an offering of new shares which can be sold all or part of the total offer within a 2 year period without filing again with the SEC. Just the NEWS of a offering that can come at any time will tank a stock short term even if they don't sell any stock. I've had several stocks that have done that and included insider shares to be sold. The "insider shares were not dilution because they are not new printed share they already exist. What ever happens SPCB is the stock to watch and in my case, play with, for the next 2 wks. Just for fun and I'am not a genius, I still think we will see 8's and maybe high 7,s. but it takes time to play out.
And that is why every mutual fund starts out by saying: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
But PAST PERFORMANCE are the recorded FACTS that we have to go on ! If you are playing THE ODDS, that is very important. Everybody should stick with what works for them and nobody is always right ! If you took all the money from everybody and we all started from zero, in 10 years the people that were rich would be rich again and the poor would be poor again. You stated if another 5 or 10M contract could shoot the PPS 4 or 5 bucks, well a stock offering could trigger a selloff ! These are things we have no way of knowing or control over. At this point I'am watching for any stop-loss triggers today so I can buy at the bottom of the waterfall but this is not a stock that I have ever seen that happen but there is always a first time. Bottom line most of us think SPCB is in a great field, run by good people and is going up long term.
all I have to say is earnings date is set, and my expectations are that you will likely NEVER see $8 after earnings...unless it splits.
A ramp up before earnings is a setup for the classic "buy on the rumor, sell on the news. Four things can happen and 3 of them are bad. They can miss earnings, revenue and guidance which is not likely. They can "meet ERG" which is the same as a miss. They can beat ERG which will cause a selloff and they can hit a" homerun", in most cases the PPS will soar if the "shorts" don't lose control and since this isn't a heavy "shorted stock", it should not be affected.
For the next 2 weeks timing is everything for max gains. Long term things will be fine if we don't have a stock offering and that usually happens when the PPS is close to the 52wk high and that would kill everything for awhile.
Ah yes. Just when you thought you had this whole stock market thing figured out.
Those are you words not mine. Anything can happen in time but if you trade on emotion and get all worked up over a few days of big gains that are in a row that is not the way I do it. Look at a years chart on SPCB. For every fast surge over 10% it is followed by a slow down trend and that's a FACT, not an opinion, and results in the time you can make money. This uptrend is over 20%. If we follow the past trends you will not only see the lower 8's but most likely the upper 7's, you just have to wait for it.
I will always hold a core of shares but I decide when to buy and when to sell base on the FACTS and track record . I'am not a fan of pep rallys or following a herd . My goal is to be right most of the time not all of the time. This stock will back and fill in time but the long trend is up for sure. Good Luck!
Just to be more clear, I think we will be in th 8's for several days if not weeks. Remember this stock was in the 7's less than ahalf a month ago.
I'll take that bet. Why only 10 bucks, the PPS was only 14 cents from that TODAY !
The past pattern of this stock is to surge up 10%+ and then fall back for several days. The good news is the lows keep getting higher and the highs continue higher. You can make good money trading this stock if you can keep emotion out of it. It's a great stock even if you just buy and hold and just ride the waves. Good Luck Longs !
We have a little over 7M in trades with less than 45min. to go and that sure beats the 28M we had yesterday ! The KNIFE has stopped falling and now might be the time to buy if you're thinking about it.
unconfirmed reports that Google may not use Himax's display chips in the next Google Glass device.
That's not news, we already knew that and until that is a FACT it is an unconfirm rumor nothing more.