...seems to me this Board is missing the forest for the trees. Wouldn't this be by far the biggest catalyst until RSV Elderly Phase 3 results??
...that would mean likely revenues for the 2016/2017 season which would be HUGE, and is not reflected in the share price at all.
So if Elderly Phase 3 results are positive, we'll go to around $20.00 on that news alone. Hoping we have data in September/October. NVAX - under promise & over deliver. After hoped for and expected positive data, there is no risk left in the stock.
...tough to watch the way this stock is pushed around. A concerted attack this AM. Once we get into 2016 the Market will start to anticipate Elderly Phase 3 trial conclusion.
....a much larger trial. Watching other Biotechs fail in Phase 3 this year and lose 2/3d's of their value makes one nervous. The work "derisked" is thrown around a lot - is NVAX truly derisked? Personally I'd rather see them make some kind of deal before Elderly results, and even though I don't think that will happen.
...maybe that's why some people consider Biotech uninvest able. .
The Primary endpoint for Resolve is moderate to severe RSV symptoms, and the secondary endpoint is all RSV symptoms. The Phase 2 efficacy for moderate to severe symptoms was north of 60%, while the efficacy for all RSV symptoms was north of 40%. Question.....the attack rate was approx. 5% on a N that was 1800 I believe. That means 900 had the actual vaccine, and 5% of those - 45 - contracted RSV. Are these numbers large enough to draw probabilities of success in Phase 3? The fact that the primary endpoint is moderate to severe RSV is something that I think bodes well for success based on the sampling size of the Phase 2 trial.
....regardless, have you ever heard Erck talk about shareholder value? While I am relatively new to the stock, and believe management's execution has been to date flawless, the history of the company is of constant dilution. With revenues potentially 3 years away, the go it alone strategy doesn't cut it. If Elderly Phase 3 is successful, Erck should attempt to make the best deal possible for shareholders. RSV is a franchise that would attract multiple suitors. He said that NVAX "is firing on all cylinders". Maybe he lost track of the share price, which is doing a back to the future as if all the recent successes never happened. We are at year to date lows.
......the "go it alone" mantra is a strategic blunder on Erck's part. A statement of "we'd always consider reasonable offers" might have been wiser, and given the shorts some hesitation. With no catalysts in the near future and a "go it alone" strategy, the shorts can fire away with impunity. Why would management ever show their hand by implying a were not for sale strategy, even if that is the case? Erck needs to learn how to massage and manage Wall Street. In the interim, the stock price and shareholders suffer mightily.
..really hard to fathom.
Great post....I too believe they are being conservative in their comments from the CC re. the start of commercial sales......I think they will try to move heaven & earth to make some revenue in the 2017/2018 season.
Wow, that is an average of a million shares sold short over the 10 trading day reporting period. We were shorted to death. I can only guess that was a bet on the Phase 3 not getting started this RSV season?
Either way, it's pretty clear that traders are jamming down the share price in the first half hour or so of trading each morning, when volume is at its thinnest, and ability to manipulate downwards pressure on the stock is at its greatest. Sucks
Agreed, Fast Track would be huge, and their RSV Elderly vaccine would certainly seem to meet the criteria as I understand it. Otherwise we're looking at the 2018/2019 RSV season, which is hard to swallow.
..I thought they would get Fast Track status for Elderly. Hoping for a buy out at any price north of $20.00