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Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Message Board

superlithe 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 15, 2014 9:55 AM Member since: Jul 21, 2013
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  • superlithe superlithe Dec 15, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    Existing shareholders of BHP and RIO are clearly unhappy--VALE shareholders are even less happy.

  • superlithe superlithe Dec 15, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    I don't understand your post and I apologize if you believe my post was intended to deceive you. The Reuters article just came out and is easy to find. It is relevant to TC's investors.........that is my only point.

  • Reuters is reporting that BHP and RIO intend to oversupply the copper market in order to push down prices. BHP and RIO have been implementing a similar strategy in the iron ore market during the last couple years.

  • Reply to

    The first note

    by superlithe Dec 9, 2014 5:50 PM
    superlithe superlithe Dec 9, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    During the last 3 conference calls Perron has been talking about primary crushing. His suggestion that added crushing might even get MM over nameplate capacity sounds like a spoonful of sugar to help the bitter medicine go down. I am not a miner but similar conditions exist at Copper Mountain and the primary crusher passed ore 5" minus that sometimes measured 7-9" long which apparently clogged up the works. My money is on another $60-70MM and 6-8 quarters to get MM at nameplate capacity.

  • Reply to

    The first note

    by superlithe Dec 9, 2014 5:50 PM
    superlithe superlithe Dec 9, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    MM is supposed to run 60,000/tpd. I don't know how many portable crushers that requires, how they would be orientated, or what equipment would be required to feed them. Perron is an accomplished miner, he is not contemplating portables, I trust his judgement on that. Copper Mountain spent 40MM for a primary crusher to feed a mill that processes about 40,000/tpd.

  • Reply to

    The first note

    by superlithe Dec 9, 2014 5:50 PM
    superlithe superlithe Dec 9, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    I think ongoing sustaining CAPEX at MM and moly at TCREEK/Endako will drag on earnings by about 60MM.

  • Reply to

    The first note

    by superlithe Dec 9, 2014 5:50 PM
    superlithe superlithe Dec 9, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    The shares are undervalued at these levels and I do agree with some of the other points that you put forward. But it will be four, five or more years before interest expense falls to $50MM.

  • Reply to

    The first note

    by superlithe Dec 9, 2014 5:50 PM
    superlithe superlithe Dec 9, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    Yes, I have made some calculations about cash on hand. I see 300MM at the end of this year and no free cash during 2015 at current metal prices. I have also made assertions about capacity. During Q1 2014 Perron was already talking about the ramp up and the "hardness" of the ore. He went on to explain that the mine was designed for it. But then why was he talking about it? The hardness issue came back in Q2 with the aside that additional crushing might even get MM over nameplate. But why was he talking about over nameplate capacity and not just reaching nameplate with the equipment in place? In Q3 he explained some of the testing that was being done to determine the right path forward on crushing. Why would anyone talk about building out that mine even more, ($60-70MM) more, if they could get the thing to work as designed? Full capacity is not achievable without additional crushing.............not only more CAPEX but a delay of several quarters as well. At least that is how I see it.

  • Reply to

    The first note

    by superlithe Dec 9, 2014 5:50 PM
    superlithe superlithe Dec 9, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    Even with the inventory liquidation, I still see them cash flow neutral for 2015. Pam did mention a revolver, but it appears that a revolver would be subordinate to the remaining notes and whatever is re-financed on the 350MM.............a tough deal for a banker.

  • superlithe by superlithe Dec 9, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    The first note is for 350MM, interest rate at 9.75%, due 12-1-17. Now consider that moly operations will be a drag on earnings of about 35MM per year during 2015. Also, during 2015, MM will not get much past 80% capacity because additional crushing capacity will not yet be in place. Therefore, at current metal prices, Thompson Creek Metals probably breaks even for 2015. Many on this board have suggested that TCM will take out the note at the very end of 2015 or early 2016 when the prepayment penalty become reasonable. If that is the case, they will be facing that 350MM note with 300MM in hand. They probably pay down the note 100MM and refinance the 250MM at 7.5%. The total interest saving will be about 12.25MM per year. Deleveraging this company at current metal prices is going to take longer than many on this board anticipate.

  • Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, or remember information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or recall information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).

  • superlithe superlithe Dec 4, 2014 7:55 AM Flag

    I am using 80% production based on LOM estimates from the original mining plan. Actual numbers are somewhat higher during years 1-6. But the difference is probably not more than 5-10%. Based on the mine plan, they probably get more than 315MM, maybe 350MM- but I prefer to be safe. Recovery rates generally fall as throughput increases and there could be a couple unanticipated shutdowns at a newly ramping mine. I see how you arrived at 452MM but I have a more cautions view.

  • superlithe superlithe Dec 3, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    For 2015, with copper at $2.90 and gold at $1185, 80% capacity at MM yields 315MM. There is no revenue from TCREEK. Endako will lose a little and Langeloth will earn a little so they probably wash each other out. There is 250MM in MM opex, 20MM in TCREEK slow strip/C & M, 60MM S& GA and 90MM in interest. 315-250-20-60-90=(105MM).

TC
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