"The link yahoo won't let me refer too, says JCP off to a strong start in December..."
From what I've seen on my 3 store visits, I'd certainly say "a very reasonable start." I've only been following JCP for the past ~2-3 months, certainly not in a position to compare y-o-y. As yahutag pointed out, perhaps Sears' troubles will accrue to JCP's benefit.
I plan to visit additional stores this weekend, different ones sited in different socio-economic areas, for additional survey insight. Probably drop some cash, too!
Thanks for the movie tip, sounds like a good choice for viewing with the family.
BTW--I lived in Coram in the late 90s----LI/NYC is a fascinating place.
"Private branding enables JCP to more precisely target core customers with products that resonate."
Differentiation, especially in a crowded field, is critical to margins and survival.
The fundamental questions are:
1. Does JCP have the retailing savvy to succeed?
2. Does it have sufficient working capital to make it through a turnaround?
On the first point--it's too early to judge, perhaps another 2 quarters to evaluate for decent conviction. However, the 3 stores that I've visited in SoCal are attractively laid out and inventoried. Specialty stores have their place, but I continue to believe that broad line department stores that are well managed also have a future for the sheer convenience of one stop shopping.
On the second point, Q4 results will offer great insights. Even if additional capital raise is necessary, I believe equity will be an option to the extent that operating results are sufficiently encouraging for an offering price $10+. Dilution is certainly preferable offset to heightened bk risk.
"Let me rephrase that
Can be - has to be - hasn't been - - - there, fixed it"
Haven't a clue what you're trying to say.
"It really doesn't matter if sales increase 100% if your COS and expenses are greater than your selling price - - "
What makes you think that JCP's cost structure is fixed and can't be lowered?
A static mentality is unsuitable for evaluating a turnaround situation such as JCP.
Speaking of ENI---anyone invested in this stock?
It's a decent firm with a nice dividend trading at a discount to its peer E&P group---my guess for this discount is because it's headquartered in a depression zone, but that the discount will close as Europe continues to recover.
"Equity offerring will remove dedt and turn those dollars into + earnings.."
Dlight is correct and quite sane.
Secondary offering will, indeed, dilute.
However, to the extent that the proceeds reduce debt and are used to increase revenues/income (capex investments), shareholder equity also increase on an absolute and per share basis, driving up stock price.
Not an endorsement, just sharing info.
Josh Young, the author of today's SA article, has a very interesting background---currently a RIA in Los Angeles running a hedge fund specializing in oil/gas.
You might find this 2011 interview in The Energy Report interesting and insightful: "Josh Young: Transition Can Deliver Value in E&Ps".
"Actually, it's sort of interesting because there's been a bifurcation in valuation based upon the size of the company. The larger companies that are followed closely and are better understood have started pricing in fairly high natural gas prices, and that correction is already priced in. The market is already expecting gas at $5–$6 per thousand cubic feet (tcf)—and higher in some cases, depending on the stock. So, for me, it's almost like getting a free ride on the backs of smart, large investment funds that are bidding up the stocks of these big companies based on expectations of the natural gas curve. Typically, these large investment firms can't invest in the smaller companies that I follow.......Smaller investors have been slow to follow this investment trend, so the shares of smaller natural gas companies haven't gotten bid up in a same way similar to the larger ones. That's part of what's created this tremendous, and I think temporary, dislocation....Between additional funds flowing into smaller funds that invest in smaller companies, and larger funds "stretching" and starting to buy stock in smaller-cap companies, there is the chance for a substantial correction in this valuation gap..."
No new news. HRB is solely front & center focus for management.
Question to MB:
Slide 27, "Proved Reserve History": appears that proved reserves (volumetric) is dependent on pricing (ie, the notation that "2012 reserve decline reflective of lower natural gas price environment).
Why is this?
You may be crying, but most assuredly not as loudly as the shorts.
BTW--it's not too late to add to your position (and the short's pain).
"Somebody knows something and either a: created this selloff......."
Just a WAG (wild arsed guess)--the shorts are bond arbitrageurs.
"As soon as I saw it, I had to use it to whack Supor on the head."
Sorry, you did no such thing other than self-inflict another knock to your own head.
This is just ONE step of many that New GM is taking to reduce costs, increase margins and free cash flow, and drive up the stock price.
You really don't have much business sense (or, just plain common sense).
"$100 requires higher multiples or higher margins than expected .."
Indeed, these are part of my assumptions, as GM will further lower it's cost structure.
The demand, LNG exports, federal regs/global trends, etc.---yes, I grasp.
The 18 year historic low rigs--comparing today's rigs/tech to 18 years ago is comparing horse/buggy to modern sports car. Hence, my question regarding industry wide production capacity.
I agree in principle the forces pushing up demand/price and KWK valuations. Just trying to get a better quantitative handle on the demand & supply curves.
"Hang on for the ride of your life!!!!"
Indeed, I'm heavily fully loaded wrt KWK (options)----just waiting for blast off! (or, signs of ignition)
"We'll just have to agree to disagree."
Let I said, the market is the best judge of GM's long term performance and value.
This will be appropriately brief for you, Webby: THINK, before you post.
(one tiny example: Akerson's intent to retire, the succession issue, was already a known issue. It was a question of who all along, and now this question is put to bed).
Your failure to think, your inclination towards emotion and out-dated perceptions, is exactly why you've missed the run up from sub $20s to $40+ over ~1.5 years. Don't tell me that you're proud of this. Your refusal to accept reality---it's frankly not sane (and, I say this kindly).