"The fire occurred in the early hours of 10 September in an isolated area on site currently undergoing demolition activity."
The opening sentence caught my eye--there was work in progress, can only be a positive.
Gabelli is an old fox--smart, experienced, successful.
I like the way he thinks--and, he's not a conventional thinker.
There's no question that this stock is easy to manipulate.
Too, recent commodity price/supply and USD trends don't help.
The Permian drilling results--this will be very material news.
You're absolutely correct about EV, and which is currently ~ $2BB. And, the EV is driven by things such as book value.
The Permian is not fully booked--should drilling results pan out well, what do you suppose would be its contribution to book value?
"Bagholders tend to believe in Linear thinking, if sales have gone up before they must continue to go up, if GM went from 29 to 36, the next step is from 36 to 42...."
Just like bashers' extrapolation of declining revenues, GMs.
I'm not extrapolating, just monitoring for several metrics, including GMs, to return to historical norms.
Revenues--I believe will continue to climb/recover, and this is certainly a point of disagreement among those following JCP.
Substance? Please. I haven't put everything on the table, not with folks with fixed perceptions.
Too, the issue where these MBs are concerned usually isn't so much about facts/data--we've all got the same set and we all can run spreadsheets. Rather, the posters' mentality/perception determine how the data is viewed and interpreted. I've been through several corporate distress/chp 11 situations, both as an investor and also manager--shapes my viewpoints/perspective.
The Titanic sank, of course. But, not all vessels which take on water sink--it depends.
".The "thinking" part you are missing is that they can only do this so many times and then they actually have to produce results."
JCP has/is not making substantial progress? GM, cash burn, sales, etc. improvements?
Sigh.......it's fruitless engaging such a dogmatic, inflexible thinker. The stock has doubled from recent lows, between you and me I'll let the share price trends do the talking.
"a statement that says nothing except a feeble attempt to insinuate you have some "Secret" knowledge that you just aren't willing to share."
Obvious and simple, nothing secret.
Since I don't visit this mb often now, let me leave you with a clue: What is one important element in a successful turnaround situation?
Looks like you know basic math, but don't know how to think.
Normally, I would be happy to help out my fellow man. You're such a smart guy on a high horse--I'll let you figure out the obvious.
Think it through as if you were a ng producer---would you sell below your cost?
And, if you did, what would be the implication for long term profitability?
Or, consider the industry trends over past few years--the bankruptcies, mergers/aquisitions, retrenchment away from ng to oil/liquids production, the sharp drop off in capex. What does all this mean for the supply/demand balance and pricing going forward?
Sighhhhh..........another mud slinging boob appears.
Ok, I'll bite--which part of the financials do you want to discuss?
And, you do have a clue why the share price is down today, and how it'll likely rebound tomorrow, next week?
Hint: EIA weekly data release.
He's an insignificant creature.
Wise man once said: Never wrestle with a (greased) pig--the pig loves it and you can't win.
But, the critical thing is that assets liabilities (ie, there is net book value), and which protects equity holders' interests.
Too, look at things from lenders' point of view--as long as credit is fully collateralized, their risk is covered and they're more inclined to negotiate debt modifications and/or re-fi for an appropriate interest rate.
Bear in mind that creditors are in business to lend and recover their principal with interest. They're typically not inclined to go through a Chp 11 and which is in itself not without risks (e.g., protracted process, enormous costs that sap the debtor's estate, risk of a court ordered cram down, etc.).
It's not just $1/share----the entire market cap is ~$185MM for a company with substantial assets.
Operating losses are certainly a great concern. However, creditors understand losses are driven by low ng prices and this problem is afflicting all upstream companies. The highly volatile nature of ng prices is clear to all, and that the ongoing industry shakeout will shift the supply/demand curve towards higher prices--uncertain time frame notwithstanding.
KWK simply needs more time, and I believe creditors are inclined to work with management provided it can provide reasonable pro forma projections a few years out. Afterall, senior creditors agreed to a push out of debt last year.
If you post something intelligent and of substance--I'm all ears.
Throwing mud at the wall to create FUD--- too obvious and dumb.