There are vast differences in underlying fundamentals between 2008 and now.
2008--oil prices slumped because of reduced demand/world recession, followed by sharp recovery driven by decrease in oil supply because of the Libyan civil war/fall off in Libyian production as well as strenghthening US demand.
This time around, the imbalance is not reduced global demand, but the sharp (permanent) output from N.A. shale oil. Demand continues to grow, but nowhere near as rapidly has the supply growth coming from the N.A. shale fields---from 4MM/day to ~9MM/day in just 4-5 years.
Too, you have to ponder the probability of additional shale reserves in other parts of the world, and that it's a matter of time before the expertise/technology catches on in those regions to drive additional volumetric production. "Peak Oil" ? I'm afraid Mr. Simmons was far too early in his predictions.
"Positive of owning SHLX is a supermajor as a parent."
Absolutely. And, not just because of parent's asset base for drop downs, but also as alternate source of funding capital when debt markets get too pricey.
You're far more enlightened and worldly than most folks who tend to be provincial.
Stunning that those who protest the USG's involvement in GM's bailout/interference with free market mechanisms now object to GM's free market based decisions over imports.
"Maybe interlocking business arrangements are the way to finally get the world community to tolerate their neighbors. Just imagining."
Just plain ole common sense. Rising prosperity lifts all boats and cement national relationships (Japan over the post-WWII period is a classic example).
In my experience, the strong do not fear competition but welcome it. Go General !
Please--placeontherun is simply stating a fact, no spinning.
That's what liability insurance is for--better to pay temporarily higher premiums than to absorb the entire risk.
JCP is taking market share.
Took my wife shopping yesterday---her 50th bday. First stop, Nordstrom--their proposition was $200+ for a simple dress or pant/suit.
Next stop-JCP. Very nice quality, stylish selections. Bought two Evan Picone dinner dresses for under $85.
So, it's not just the old couponing strategy bringing back old customers--it's the value proposition and attractive merchandising that's bringing in new customers. Younger shoppers are discovering to their surpise that JCP offers fashionable selections and quality at great prices--these are the key demographics for JCP.
This is verifiable to anyone who simply checks out the store traffic and merchandise.
JCP is taking market share--my guess is that Kohls, Sears are the prime losers. Macy's also giving back sales it took under Johnson.
"I, for one, have started to get very worried about the danger of Fed rate-raising adventurism for its own sake, just because they can. It's becoming increasingly evident to me that Yellen has no idea what she's doing...."
Funny, everyone's an armchair economist.
Ms. Yellen knows exactly what she's doing. Zero interest rates/loose money policy create asset bubbles--this is what has her worried.
"p/b is well over others looking for 2 to 4% drop to get more in line with others"
Why does NLY have to be valued like others when its a better managed company with greater scale?
"their whole balance sheet is backed by used cars of dubious value. "
CAR is recording gains on used car sales because realized sale prices are greater than original residuals. This was just reported in Q3 results.
High demand for used cars is not specific to CAR---this is general fact and can be easily verified. (I know this firsthand---helped my parents sell their 17 yo Saturn last year--sold in matter of few hours after posing in Craigslist).
Hertz--that's a different company, different management and apparently different financial practices.
You've said nothing that is supported by facts or even clear-headed thinking--why do you persist in doing this?
"Fed to raise rates soon."
You need to think more deeply.
1. Most credible economists/analyst believe that any rate increase will be very modest (ie, 25 bps) and, more importantly, rate adjustments will run many years in very small increments. In other worlds, each rate increase will not significantly change the world.
2. Interest rates: contrary to popular belief, small/gradual rate increases are very bullish for equities, as it signifies a strengthening economy.
Think: why do we have zero interest rates in the first place (unprecedented in recorded history)?
Ans: weak/recessionary economy/ies.
3. "this company has declared BK in the past due to this very issue."
Bankruptcy is due to EXCESSIVE debt, and not just because of rising rates.
CAR management, like GM which went Chp 11 (in 2009), is pretty cautious as reflected by a decent balance sheet and reasonable debt levels (and which is being paid down by cash flow).
Chp 11 can be good in many ways, especially in instilling a more prudent/cautious mindset. Apple was just a few days/weeks away from Chp 11 in the late 1990s--it managed to survive (brought back Jobs), and it has been incredibly averse to debt ever since.
"Unfortunately down. The FED continues to send the message that they intend to raise rates slowly for a long period of time. NLY is highly leveraged, so an increase in rates will effect the yield significantly."
Not necessarily, not likely.
1. NLY's profitability is impacted by the interest yield curve, and not just on any one short-term rate. As long as we have a normal yield curve (ie, rates increase with increasing maturities), NLY will do beautifully.
2. Interest rates: the Fed sets only short term interest rates (the Fed Funds rate). Contrary to popular (uninformed) belief, gentle and gradual rate increases are actually very bullish for NLY and the entire equity market as it signifies a strengthening economy (it's sharp and excessive spikes that creates problems). In this scenario, long rates will rise, also, maintaining a normal yield curve which is essential to NLY's profitability.
3. Near zero interest rate policy to date: necessitated by weak domestic/global economies. See # 2 above.
4. The mortgage market & Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac: huge political football. But, to the extent that Fannie and Freddie's roles may shrink over time, this is hugely positive for firms such as NLY.
"massive amounts of debt backed by.....used cars of dubious value. Give me a break. This is an over levered used car company. By any real measure, the company is insolvent."
Your ignorance is profound.
1. The industry: is capital intensive, and debt financing/leasing is used to acquire vehicles.
2. CAR and financials:
--generates strong (and growing) cash flow, and which is used to pay down debt (and buy back A LOT of shares).
--the leverage ratio has been falling for the past two years (debt pay down).
--interest coverage is very strong, $900MM+ annual EBIDTA vs $200MM annual interest expense
--there are no debt maturies for another 2 years, with balance of debt spread out further beyond
--shareholders' equity was $665MM at FY14 end. CAR is FAR FROM INSOLVENT.
--used cars: there is very strong demand, as evidenced by residual values exceeding original estimates. Demand is driven by the ongoing vehicle replacement cycle in the USA--the average age of vehicles is 10+ years. Too, CAR is ramping up direct sales of used vehicles to the consumer (vs wholesale auctions) to further increase margins on used car sales.
3. Capital and interest rates:
--capital is cheap and will very likely stay cheap for more years. ie. low interest rates will persist.
As a business traveler in my previous life, I valued the control/flexibility of a rental car.
Meetings times and agendas run unpredictably, it's important that transportation is certain and not another variable in a manager's hectic life.
Mr. De Shon has been with CAR long enough to have a good handle on the business.
He was with United Airlines in operations for 20+ years prior.
Anyone with perspective on this manager?
"and when the Fed raises interest rates, what happens to the US dollar? It goes up."
That's just ONE reason preventing the Fed from raising rates.
"Lack of vision in this company. Their IT moves too slow on every initiative. Why are they moving so slow with the IDSY system? Incompetence in their IT is killing this company."
But, increasing EBITDA captures a lot of what is going right, and is what matters in the long run.
"with 1% growth?"
8% revenue growth in constant dollars, reduced to 1% by currency effects (strong $USD).
There's significant expansion opportunities: buying out franchisees and international acquisitions.
CAR and Uber serve very different needs.
e.g., if you've got limited itinerary/schedule, you'll call Uber
e.g., if you need full control over your travel schedule & itinerary, you'll rent a CAR.
e.g., if you're touring in a foreign city/country, you'll rent a CAR.
I have a family of 4, 6 when travelling with elderly parents. No way would I be limited by Uber--I always rent a car for full control of my schedule.
Just booked CAR rental for December family trip to Port Canaveral.
"I expect BS Chenier and E to continue pressuring the stock until they are ready."
This about a stock that's trading less than 1 cent/share--am I the only person who finds this statement inane?
Spot rates can change--consider the devastation in the dry bulk sector.
Long term charters support financial stability--essential for an entity such as CPLP whose function is sustainable distributions.
Besides, high spot rates allow vessels to recharter at higher rates.