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Zillow, Inc. Message Board

surbiton99 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 19, 2014 9:07 PM Member since: Aug 10, 2011
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  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Jul 19, 2014 9:07 PM Flag

    With 2nd Quarter Unique Users at 243.3M compared to 212.0M in 1st quarter Zillows growth slowed to 14.8% Year on Year compared to the same Quarter in 2013 when it grew 16.43%. The difference being that Zillow did no TV advertising in the same period last year, but spent $45M in the 3rd &4th Quarters and is spending $65M in 2014. The answer is obvious that Zillow has run out of steam and can no longer be considered a growth stock. Put that into context that incremental costs of additional revenues are greater than the revenue growth and it spells di-Zaster.

  • Reply to

    No Terms on Retsly Deal???

    by pigroast11 Jul 16, 2014 8:04 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Jul 17, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Retsly has Angel funding of $575K and 5 employees according to the Angel Investors website. Their Twitter has a bunch of pictures at a Realogy conference lasy November so I am guessing this is a 'spoiler acquisition' by Zillow to eliminate the Retsly tools that Realogy maybe using. I can't imagine Zillow paid more than $2M or $3M, but when they have such an inflated value maybe they paid $20M. As twhite113 says it is Zimbabwean dollar values.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Jul 15, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    Now that Zillow Unique User growth has run out of steam there is NO comment from CEO Spencer Rascoff explaining why growth has slowed substantially despite a $65M TV advertising campaign. Zillow Unique Users increase by a lousy 5.2% from 81.486M in May to 82.989M in June, after being flat from April to May.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Jul 15, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    sm081969 you make some excellent points and I can only agree with you. Interesting that when Unique User numbers are disappointing that NO comment from Spencer Rascough.

  • Zillow Unique Users increase by a lousy 5.2% from 81.486M in May to 82.989M in June, despite a $65M national TV advertising campaign to increase awareness in the Zillow brand. Admittedly the TV Ad is as useless as Zillows flawed Zestimates, but the $65M is on top of a $45M TV Ad campaign in 2013. Seems that Zillow is missing the spot with potential users, or maybe its reputation for inaccuracy stops people even bothering to look at its website.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Jul 4, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    There has been no mention of his right to switch companies. My comment relates specifically to the ethics and integrity of how he switched. Read the Court Documents and you will understand.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Jul 3, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    Substantial reputational damage as Zillow and CEO, alomng with Errol Samuelson, demonstrate a disregard for ethics and integrity by poaching key employees from a competitor company induced with very generous Restricted Stock options worth over $6m. Am I surprised? No, as a homeowner with a substantially inaccurate Zestimate, I was informed by CEO Spencer Rascoff in an email response 'that thanks to the First Amendment Zillow can publish any value it likes' . How arrogant is that?

  • Reply to

    The Numbers

    by muzzy4444 Jun 25, 2014 12:39 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Jun 25, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    The 80 million Unique User number is as inaccurate #$%$ Zillows nonsense Zestimates. Zillow counts the same person accessing its website on a device basis so if a user has a cellphone, a tablet, a home computer, a work computer, etc, then that would be counted as 4 Unique Users even though its the same person accessing the site using multiple devices. CommScore recently published that Zillows real user number is 45.1 million. Lots oh hype and puffery by Zillow executives to boost the share price to make themselves richer.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Jun 14, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Yahoo won't let me cut and paste the weblink but if you Google "ComScore Zillow Unique Users" one of the results is an article in Inman News by Paul Hagey dated May 21st which gives the full details that you are asking for.

  • First, Zillows Unique User metric is as nonsense as its useless Zestimates as they duplicate Users who access Zillow using different devices. To illustrate this point ComScore published that Zillow "Real User" numbers for April were 45.1 million compared to Zillows claimed 78.8 million. However, what is worth noting is that despite a $65M Advertising campaign launched in 2014 (on top of $45M in 2013) Zillows published Unique User numbers remained flat in May when adjusted for month days. How embarrassing is that for CEO Spencer Rascoff who claims that Advertisers follow audience and that he is investing for the future whilst selling every share he owns in Zillow as options vest.

  • Reply to

    Will Zillow Acquire Zoopla in UK?

    by surbiton99 May 26, 2014 6:17 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 May 30, 2014 10:33 PM Flag

    Amazed that zero interest in Zillow making international expansion and the impact on stock price of such an ego based expansion.

  • Reply to

    Will Zillow Acquire Zoopla in UK?

    by surbiton99 May 26, 2014 6:17 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 May 27, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    When the CEO of Zillow talks of the "Zestimate brand" and is looking to the new Zestimate forecast tool to grow Unique Users it is obviously something that Zillow consider very important. Why would they refuse ALL homeowner requests to correct or delete substantially inaccurate Zestimates unless there is a clear strategy that inaccurate valuations are more valuable for Revenue growth than accurate Zestimates than would not generate the same level of interest.

    But the purpose of this thread is about will Zillow expand internationally by attempting to buy Zoopla in UK before it floats in next month or so in London. What would be the implications for Zillow if it decides to acquire Zoopla?

  • Zoopla majority shareholder DMGT announced last week that it plans to Float Zoopla on the London Stock Exchange with a valuation of $2Bn, or 50 times EBITDA. It will be interesting if Zillow makes an offer to buy Zoopla before the IPO is launched with the Daily Mail Group owning 52.6% and wanting to cash in on red hot UK property market. With the SAGA IPO getting lackluster reviews last Friday it is possible that a trade sale of Zoopla to Zillow would be attractive to DMGT.

    Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff has made numerous Twitter comments over the last year about the state of UK property market which demonstrates his interest in that market, and with Zillows stock price at close to $120 valuing Z at $4.7Bn it would be a easily digestible. Zoopla has 40 million Unique Monthly users and is profitable at much lower revenues than Zillow.

    Full Disclosure: I am a Zillow cynic who objects to the ay Zillow imposes its nonsense Zestimates on private property and refuses ALL reasonable homeowner requests to correct or delete, despite 17% of Zestimates being more than 25% inaccurate.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 May 23, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    Not only Insane valuation but Zillow underlying fundamentals suck as it continues to buy revenues at ever increasing cost of sale as it cold calls Realtors in a desperate attempt to sign them up as Premier Agents. Zillow lost $6.259M in the the 1st Quarter and $12.453M in 2013 on a GAAP basis.

  • Reply to

    The Tiger Management stake increase

    by tah920 May 15, 2014 4:50 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 May 16, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    With Tiger increasing its Zillow stake to 9.5% and Morgan Stanley acquiring 2.2 million shares as well, giving it a 6.6%, stake it seems that someone knows something and that Zillow is being positioned for sale. There is no logic for Zillow stock price to be at this level other than buyout whispers.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 May 7, 2014 6:38 PM Flag

    Q1 stock based compensation charge increased from $3.1M last year to $7.1M for same quarter this year. When they issue stock options like confetti the way they do they will never be profitable on a GAAP basis. Perhaps there is a reason why its called "Generally Accepted Accounting Principles" .

  • Reply to

    Lol, they didnt want to give a eps guidance

    by hereforpus2k6 May 7, 2014 5:22 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 May 7, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    When Share Based Compensation is excluded from EBITDA and Zillow had a $7.132M charge in Q1 its no surprise they prefer referencing that rather than GAAP. When Zillow hands out stock options to executives like confetti the share based comp is a REAL number that impacts earnings and EBITDA should be ignored

  • Reply to

    Zillow has to earn $5 per share within 2 years

    by foolallstar May 2, 2014 5:00 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 May 3, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    Your comments are spot on.With Caledonia Investments holding 6.26 million shares, Wellington Management holding 3.4 million shares and with Tiger Global holding 3.13 million shares which, combined with the holdings of the next 7 largest institutional holdings mean that over 50% of the Z shares are controlled by 10 people. Add to that the shareholdings of Co-Founders and Zillow Insiders Rich Barton and Lloyd Frink then easy to understand why the Z stock price is at such an inflated level with no bearing on the operational performance or potential earnings any time soon.

  • Reply to

    Why This Stock is Way Overvalued

    by hundleyrandy Apr 16, 2014 9:42 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Apr 28, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    So today the SG13 Form was published disclosing that Tiger Global Investments has acquired 9.5% of Zillow stock - 3.13 million shares, which explains the jump to $105 last week. Makes you wonder what Tiger see's in Zillow as they are currently sitting on a $30M + loss on their investment.

Z
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