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Zillow Group, Inc. Message Board

surbiton99 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 13, 2015 6:08 PM Member since: Aug 10, 2011
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  • So Zillow finally announced without any notice its 4th Quarter earnings after the bell with a small beat on revenues but a big miss on earnings with a loss of $10.9M for the Quarter, and $43.61M for the Year on a GAAP basis. Zillow even missed on its EBITDA reporting missing zestimate of a loss of 28 cents a share with actual EPS of 26 cents loss for the Quarter, and 38 cents loss for the Year.

    So why hasn't Trulia also announced today seeing as they usually announce a few days before Zillow. Must be the massive losses expected for Trulia following the December vesting of $42 million Restricted Stock Units to a handful of executives. No doubt Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff is trying to get his "good news" of the FTC merger out before it gets contaminated by the toxic reality that both Zillow and Trulia are loss making companies, and losses will increase as management gets distracted by the integration activities, and Rupert Murdochs recent acquisition of Move Inc gets off to a running start to poach Premier Agent revenues from the merged Zillow Trulia as Agents review their marketing budgets in the new landscape.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 13, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    Maybe Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff is too busy with his "Zillow Talk" book tour to schedule Earnings. Interesting he treats Investors just as contemptuously as Homeowners by Tweeting puerile messages about everything except when Zillow earnings. So much for the self proclaimed "Social CEO" !!

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 10, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    Or maybe they have a major "Earnings Miss" as a consequence of increasing costs and falling audience in last 5 months of 2014. Compound that with the possibility of the FTC blocking Zillow / Trulia merger and it may explain the silence by both companies on when they plan to report 4th Quarter Earnings.

    Previously we were bombarded by PR statements about making Social Media history by taking Analysts questions on Twitter and Facebook, but this quarter not a Tweet from CEO Spencer Rascoff or his IR team. Be interesting to see how it pans out.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 10, 2015 9:15 PM Flag

    Great post detailing some of the fundamental failings of Zillows Zestimate algorithm. It is time that Zillow was subject to some form of Regulation to protect Homeowners from erroneous Zestimates that cause nothing but misery & potential financial losses when they mis-represent home values by such a margin of error. Whilst CEO Spencer Rascoff admits a "Median Error Rate of 8% for Zestimates the real number as disclosed by Clareity Consulting is that 17% of Zillows 106 million Zestimates are over 25% inaccurate. The minimum regulatory requirement needs to be a DoNotZestimate opt out in the same way as Phone users can opt out of unwanted spam calls by registering with DoNotCall.

  • Reply to

    Big Winners from Zillow takeover of Trulia

    by surbiton99 Sep 27, 2014 2:22 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 10, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    How bad will Trulia's 4th Quarter earnings be when they report this week? On a GAAP basis they will have to take a $41M charge for Stock Based Compensation following the vesting of the RSU's units which will blow earnings forecasts.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 8, 2015 7:41 AM Flag

    The 28 cents EPS forecast for Zillow 4th Quarter is on a NON GAAP basis so it excludes Depreciation, Amortization and Share Based Compensation, which is one of Zillows biggest costs as it hands out cheap stock options to executives like confetti. There is a reason why most companies report financials using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles so that investors can consistently compare business performance when using financial statements. My Zestimate is that Zillow EPS on a GAAP basis will be less than 10 cents.

  • Zillow Unique User Numbers were a very disappointing 88.377M in January which represents a growth of only 17.5% compared to 33.9% in January 2014, and 32.2% in 2013. Looks like the bubble has burst as people get bored with Zillows stale listings and inaccurate Zestimates, which make the home search unnecessarily chaotic as they discover homes they get in searches are substantially under valued by Zillow wasting time and effort.

    The Economist MBA Competition winners from Monterey Institute of International Studies came to the conclusion that the Zillow takeover of Trulia is not a good deal for Zillow shareholders who should sell as the industry faces a pessimistic future, along with Zillows underlying lack of profitability.No wonder the Zillow share price is being hammered again today.

  • Reply to

    Monthly users down

    by vazmania Jan 7, 2015 4:07 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Jan 9, 2015 8:23 PM Flag

    Switching analytics platforms might be a smokescreen for awful December User Numbers. Looking at Alexa Rankings showed a massive downward trend in Zillow Users in December, and if you put that in context that MUU's were down 16% since July then every reason for Zillow to change the definition of MUU to 'Made Up User' numbers. Let's hope the Analysts take this issue seriously when CEO Spencer Rascoff 'sugar coats' Q4 as another record quarter on the Earnings call in early February.

  • Reply to

    Monthly users down

    by vazmania Jan 7, 2015 4:07 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Jan 7, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    Zillow have been making up numbers since they started imposing nonsense Zestimates on millions of homeowners. Now they have started making up their Monthly Unique User numbers with a lame excuse blaming Google analytics. Maybe the numbers were SO bad they were too embarrassed to report them? Face it Zillow MUU's have been on a dramatic downward trend since July and December is always the worst month for Zillow so they could be flattering their User numbers by using prior years relationship numbers. Just my 2 cents.

  • Interesting that NO comment about the substantial windfall coming to a handful of Trulia executives who were awarded Restricted Stock Options if the Trulia stock price closed above $48.40 for 20 days in a 30 day period after the 3rd Quarter earnings for Trulia were released. You can imagine the jealousy at this windfall in Seattle as Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff and his cronies plan how they can implement a similar RSU scheme following the Trulia acquisition in the hope they get as lucky as Pete Flint & his colleagues. You can bet that 'moneybags Rascoff' will want substantially more than the $14.5M in RSU's that Pete Flint got following the MarketLeader acquisition by Trulia.

  • Reply to

    Big Winners from Zillow takeover of Trulia

    by surbiton99 Nov 18, 2014 10:11 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Dec 17, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Trulia Executives hit the Jackpot on Monday 15th which was the 20th trading day in a 30 day period that the stock closed above the target price of $48.40 necessary for the RSU's to exercise. Interesting that in last 2 days there wasn't 'support' and the stock price dropped. So the farewell gift to Pete Flint and his Trulia colleagues will cost new owners zillow over $40M. Now we need to wait and see what Zillow CEO and his cronies will get as their RSU options windfall as their noses have been put out of joint.

  • Reply to

    Sex at the office - new case against Zillow

    by bmw_petrobas Dec 2, 2014 8:05 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Dec 12, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    Zillow disrespect millions of homeowners by imposing nonsense inaccurate Zestimates and refusing all requests to correct despite 17% of Zestimates being more than 25% inaccurate. When questioning the integrity of publishing wrong information that causes homeowners misery and potential financial damage the CEO Spencer Rascoff said in an email "thanks to the First Amendment he can publish any valuation he likes".

    When the leadership behave so arrogantly its not a surprise that other managers down the pecking order behave in an equally bad way in interactions with employees and customers alike as they replicate the example set by their leadership.

  • Reply to

    Zillow Inside Sales Boiler Room environment

    by surbiton99 Jun 21, 2013 8:39 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Dec 9, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    Two more Lawsuits filed in California against Zillows Irvine office. One case for "subjection female employees to sexual torture" with the classic line by a manager against the plaintiff when he referred her as "Rachel 2.0 since she was like Rachel but with bigger breasts and less miles on her". The other case relates to Age Discrimination where it is alleged that Zillow managers believed that women employees over 40 cant keep up.

    Am I surprised by these allegations? NO. Not when Zillow behaves so arrogantly imposing its nonsense inaccurate Zestimates on homeowners and refuse ALL requests to correct despite 17% of Zestimates being more than 25% inaccurate. The time has come for Zillow to be Regulated to protect homeowners from its BS Zestimates and to protect employees from abuses like we are witnessing in court filings.

  • Reply to

    Big Winners from Zillow takeover of Trulia

    by surbiton99 Nov 18, 2014 10:11 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Dec 8, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    I am amazed there has been NO comment about the 4th Quarter P&L implications of this substantial payout. I also wonder how much influence the big 6 institutional holders in both companies have exercised so the Z and TRLA stock price hits the RSU target to make sure Pete Flint and his Trulia executive team get 'rewarded' for submitting to the takeover without a fight. Just my 2 cents.

  • Despite a massive $75m TV Ad campaign in 2014 Zillow Unique User Numbers continued the downward slump since July with only 74.3 million Users in November, down 9.75% from October and down 16.36% since the July peak. For those who defend Zillow by saying numbers always drop in November the key issue this year is that User numbers fell 16.36% from July, and in 2013 they dropped only 13.9% in same period.

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