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Zillow, Inc. Message Board

surbiton99 323 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 9:25 AM Member since: Aug 10, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Why This Stock is Way Overvalued

    by hundleyrandy Apr 16, 2014 9:42 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Apr 17, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Very succinct analysis of Zillow, and I share your views of Zillows gravity defying valuation. It seems to be based on hype and pure "puffery" with no fundamental supporting the stock price. With Caledonia Investments holding 6.26 million shares and Wellington Management holding 3.4 million shares which combined with the holdins of the next 8 largest institutional holdings mean that over 50% of the Z shares are controlled by 10 people. If you look at early day trades low volume of 10,000 or 20,000 purchases increases the price by a $1 or more before sellers bail out. It would be interesting to see the daily trading transactions of the large institutional holders of Zillow.

    The Motley Fool discloses that it 'recommends and holds shares in Zillow' which explains their constant pumping of Zillow and its CEO Spencer Rascoff as if he is the Messiah. Last week it was Susquehanna pimping Zillow but I didn't see the disclosure that it owns 173,518 Z shares. Previously we have seen Zacks pimping it just as fervently even though it has a small shareholding of only 5.452 shares. Perhaps the SEC needs to investigate Zillows stock transactions.

    Regarding TMF's comment that the court clearing Errol Samuelsons employment at Zillow is the reason for the Z stock price increase then perhaps investors should take a wider view of that appointment. Samuelson was awarded 59,320 RSU's last week with a cost to Zillows of over $5m. In his court declaration he stated his remuneration at Z is similar to what he received at Move Inc which was $1.892M for 2012. With Zillow also recruiting Curt Beardsley from Move Inc after they promoted him to Samuelsons role you can bet that costs another few millions $'s, so the net effect is Zillow has substantially increased its cost base with two very expensive executives, who according to the court declarations approached Zillow, and I doubt they budgetted for this fiscal year, so unless they generate a quantum revenue increase then earnings are blown.

  • Reply to

    susquehanna pimp job

    by born2bcalm Apr 11, 2014 12:04 AM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Apr 11, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    Whilst Susquehanna holds 173, 518 shares in Zillow, and has plenty to gain by Initiating coverage on Zillow with a "Positive" rating and price target of $115, that was not the reason for Zillows resilliance yesterday. It was more to do with Wellington Management filing a Form 13G/A declaring it had increased its Zillow holding from 2.473 million shares to 3.4 million at March 31. This makes Wellington Z's 2nd largest institutional investor after Caledonia Investments who hold 6.26 million shares. Seems to me that 'strategic buying' of small parcels of Zillow shares by these major investors supports the price.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Apr 7, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    OR, that they sold their Zillow stock and took the profits to the bank. The current bloated valuation is the same as it was when MF was pumping Z every few days and the underlying fundamentals of Z's business model remain as lousy as before.

  • Reply to

    Reason for bullish activity

    by mdaceut Mar 18, 2014 4:48 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Mar 19, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    With 5 million Zillow shares traded in 3 trading sessions someone is building a stake and I waiting for the SEC Form 13G in next few days to see who it is. This has nothing to do with a the lending Tree decision or, the poaching of 2 executives from Move Inc, which will only add $4m to overheads and make Zillows loss even bigger.

  • Reply to

    Up 6.21% in the Down Market with no news?

    by tungle7 Mar 14, 2014 10:29 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Mar 16, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Even a bigger question when Co-Founder and Vice Chairman Lloyd Frink bails out by selling another 200,000 shares for $16.5M. So much for 'Zillows investing for the future' excuse for poor financial performance when controlling shareholders keep bailing out at every opportunity.

  • Reply to

    Great company - but insane valuation

    by libsuper12 Mar 11, 2014 2:18 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Mar 11, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    Millions of homeowners don't think Zillow is a great company the way they impose nonsense inaccurate Zestimates on homes and refuse all reasonable requests to correct or delete the incorrect Zestimate valuation. This is outrageous when 17% of 100 million Zestimates are more than 25% incorrect. When a $3Bn Nasdaq company behaves in such a socially irresponsible manner then it time that some form of regulation was introduced to protect those homeowners with inaccurate Zestimates from the misery and potential financial damage that Zillow inflicts.

    At the very least there should be a DoNotZestimate website to enable any homeowner to opt out of Zillows nonsense in the same way that people can pt out of unwanted phone calls by registering on DoNotCall website.

  • Reply to

    50% short and no dents.

    by leorivero99 Feb 25, 2014 10:06 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Mar 4, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    So why does Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff talk about Zestimates as a brand? Even more important, why does Zillow refuse all requests from homeowners to correct or delete substantially incorrect Zestimates when 17% of 100 million Zestimates are more than 25% incorrect?

  • Reply to

    Z emperor has no clothes

    by crippstonite Feb 18, 2014 9:56 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 21, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    So what is their problem with correcting substantial errors when highlighted by homeowners? When Zillows accuracy is unacceptable by any standard (17% more than 25% incorrect) then one has to question the integrity of the company and what they hope to gain by imposing their nonsense they way they do. If they cannot be trusted to act in a fair minded way towards 100 million homeowners then regulation is the only answer.

    It's no different than virtually every aspect of daily like being regulated - with banks, Insurance cos, Phone Cos, Airlines, Healthcare, Investments, etc all being regulated. Even Zillow highlight possible regulation of zestimates in their 10-K annual report filing with the SEC this week.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 20, 2014 10:03 PM Flag

    It is drifting down on fundamentals. Z lost $12.5m in the last Fiscal Year and Sales & Marketing costs are increasing at a faster rate than incremental revenues from cold calling Realtor's in a desperate attempt to sign them up as Premier Agents. Also look at the $23 million share based compensation figure as a handful of executives benefit from low cost stock options that they dump at the first opportunity.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=Z+Insider+Transactions

  • Reply to

    Z emperor has no clothes

    by crippstonite Feb 18, 2014 9:56 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 20, 2014 8:44 PM Flag

    You are absolutely right and when 17% of Zillows 100 million Zestimates are more than 25% incorrect it questions the validity of the "Zestimate brand". as CEO Spencer Rascoff refers to Zestimates. What other $3Bn Nasdaq listed company demonstrates such gross incompetence on a daily basis with its flawed algorithm and poor configuration control of 3rd party data that it purchases.

    How do I know? Well Zillow had my home mapped to a city 6 miles away and admitted a 'geo mapping problem' with the 3rd part data provider, but still refused to correct or delete a substantially erroneous Zestimate. Irrespective of the circumstances they refuse ALL requests from homeowners to correct or delete nonsense Zestimates and one has to question their motive for such irresponsible actions that cause potential financial damage and misery for millions of Homeowners suffering from unwanted imposed Zestimates. The time has come for our elected officials to catch up with technology and introduce regulation over Zillows Zestimates to protect homeowners from this nonsense.

  • Reply to

    Zillow reports $12.5M LOSS

    by surbiton99 Feb 12, 2014 5:06 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 19, 2014 10:07 PM Flag

    Another big increase is in Sales & Marketing costs which increased by 122%, whilst Revenues increased by a disappointing 69%. Basically Zillow is spending more on cold calling realtors to sign them up as premier Agents than the incremental revenues earned. Not an attractive proposition for any business let alone one valued at 10 times Revenues that is losing money.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 17, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    The reality is no one is interested in Zillows TV Ads. The national Tv Ad campaign Zillow ran last summer that cost $40M was useless and attracted less than 70,000 hits on YouTube in 8 months. In the same period the Geico Hump Day Ad attracted over 20 million YouTube hits because it had 'appeal'. Zillow spending $65M on advertising in 2014 is throwing good money after bad.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 15, 2014 9:44 PM Flag

    When Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff accepts on a Bloomberg TV interview that 25% of the 110 million imposed Zestimates are more than 25% inaccurate then I am not in the slightest surprised by your comment. What I am surprised about is that Zillow are allowed to peddle such nonsense and refuse ALL requests by homeowners to correct or delete the erroneous Zestimate. When a business behaves in such a discriminatory way towards consumers then it time that our elected officials imposed some form f Regulation to protect homeowners from the misery and potential financial damage caused by Zillows nonsense Zestimates.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 15, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    Looks like James Packer has bailed out of Zillow - or didn't file the required Sch13G by yesterdays reporting date. Largest shareholders are Australian Investment Co Caledonia Investments with 19.09%, Co-founders Barton & Frink with 11.3% and 9.3% respectively, TCV (Technology Crossover Management) with 3.0%, Citadel GP LLC with 0.5%, Wellington Management with 7.54%, T Rowe Price with 3.4% and Benchmark Capital with 0.8%.

  • Reply to

    Zillow reports $12.5M LOSS

    by surbiton99 Feb 12, 2014 5:06 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 15, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Well less than $81 yesterday at close of play. Still massively over valued for a loss making company.

  • This is compared to a profit of $5.9M in 2012. Seems the one BIG item that contributed to this detiorating financial performance is Share Based Compensation which increased by $17M to $23M

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 12, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    Interesting that Benchmark say a big reduction in marketing costs in 4th quarter will help Zillow earnings. So who told Daniel Kurnos of Benchmark Capital that marketing costs were reduced? Perhaps the SEC should be checking on this and the impact of such restricted information on the stock price, particularly as Benchmark Capital is close to Zillow and its chairman Rich Barton.

  • surbiton99 surbiton99 Feb 2, 2014 1:01 AM Flag

    No doubt that Zillow will gloss over the lousy 4th Quarter Unique User numbers and only mention the January numbers, which will be better than December. Time that Analysts called Zillow out on the lack of transparency in how they gloss over any bad news.

  • Interesting that prolific Twitter posting Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff has only made a handful of posts in the last month depite having 10,700 Twitter posts on a dedicated computer screen for Twitter on his desk - he posted that.. There must be a reason why he has stopped Tweeting, even if it was that he fell off his Threadmill desk and hurt his Tweeting finger.

    Two thoughts come to mind. First that he is negotiating the sale of Zillow to make himself even richer from cashing in the stock options that will vest immediately on acquisition. The second thought is maybe an acquisition timed to deflect poor 4th Quarter results as a result of slumping Unique User numbers since August, and a potential revenue and Earnings miss that will decimate the substantially inflated Zillow stock price. With an obsession for all things "Z" my money is on an international expansion to the UK where Zillow lookalike Zoopla announced last year that it has engaged Credit Suisse to explore various strategic options. With a potential valuation of $2Bn it wouldn't be beyond Zillows financing with a big share offering to fund the acquisition. Bottom line is that stock price will slump as it will be an ego based acquisition rather than a fact based value adding one.

    Just my 2 cents as homeowner who suffers from Zillow imposing a nonsense Zestimate on my home and refusing all requests to correct or delete. In the circumstances it's fair game for me to express my opinion on Zillow and its business, thanks to the 1st Amendment as Spencer Rascoff explained why Zilow has a right to publish erroneous Zestimates.

  • Reply to

    Has Zillow ever been sued for flawed

    by crippstonite Jan 19, 2014 1:00 PM
    surbiton99 surbiton99 Jan 19, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    It doesn't appear so, but it amazes me that some greedy class action lawyer hasn't taken Zillow to task. When you consider that 17% of Zillows 100 million plus Zestimates are more than 25% inaccurate. Think of the misery and potential financial damage that homeowners, suffering with an unwanted imposed erroneous Zestimate, and Zillow refuse all reasonable requests to correct or delete the nonsensical valuation that their flawed algorithm computes. When Zillow says that Zestimates are a "starting point" they are lying as when Zillow refuse to correct they become an "end point" too.

    Even more interesting is that our elected representatives have failed to introduce any form of Regulation on Zillow and other AVM companies for the damage they cause to homeowners as well as the chaos and confusion that incorrect Zestimates create in the home sales business. At the very minimum there should be a DoNotZestimate website that homeowners can opt out of Zillows nonsense in the same way as phone users can register with DoNotCall to opt out of spam phone calls.

Z
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