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C&F Financial Corp. Message Board

surfboredsam 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2015 8:31 AM Member since: Dec 2, 2005
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  • surfboredsam surfboredsam Jul 17, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    "3) Any new information on the Watts plant and its production of recycled plastic resins? It has completely fallen off the radar."

    That's pretty easy to figure out:
    1. No news is not so good news.
    2. With oil prices in the dumper, virgin plastic is cheap and recycled plastic is cheaper.
    3. Margins for the Watts product are probably pretty low right now.
    4. Watts economics as a stand alone plastic supplier to other companies is probably barely viable.

    Nothing to really talk about, obviously.

    Best use, right now, for Watts division is to supply the decking division with raw material plastic for decking and accessories, where it can help decking division margins. And since it is handled through AERT internal bookkeeping, there's really not much to get it on any kind of radar.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • surfboredsam surfboredsam Jul 17, 2015 8:18 AM Flag

    "2) I had no idea that you are selling the ModernView product line until it popped up on the MoistureShield website recently. How long were you selling it for? What MoistureShield product is most comparable to the ModernView product? "

    All ModernView basic data is on the CD website. Its really not a new product, just a new name.

    It's simply a 'renamed' CD Product. In fact, it is the product closest to the original CD product when it was first marketed.

    Basically its the same core material (about 50/50 wood/plastic) in a 1x5 size instead of 1x6 (like Vantage) and unlike CD Pro, it is unclad. and unlike CD FR, which is 1.1x5.5 and probably has some fire retardant in it, probably for the California market, it is not fire-rated the same way

    Sentiment: Hold

  • surfboredsam surfboredsam Jul 12, 2015 6:24 AM Flag

    Although we may be a shareholders of record, we have given this company no money. When we bought our shares we gave it to another investor, unless you bought on the initial offering.

    The share price, in absence of any reliable financially fundamental way of setting it, is merely a very fleeting (at these volumes) figment of our financial emotion, and an unreliable one at that, especially when a sale of $200 worth of stock by someone else can alter the value of your holdings, by 10-20%

    At this point in time, rational thought is not a significant factor in share price

  • surfboredsam surfboredsam Jul 11, 2015 7:43 AM Flag

    Current penny fluctuations of share price, at these volumes, are miniscule amounts of money in this stock and are almost meaningless.

    10,000 shares x $.02 = $200
    $200/$7,000,000 total capitalization = 0.002% of capitalization.
    Even if I dumped my 700,000 shares at $0.10 per share, that's only 1 percent of capitalization, and represents ONLY my opinion. AND, somebody else paid $700,000 to play, because that was THEIR opinion.

    These are sentiment-driven fluctuations, not fundamentals-driven fluctuations.
    These fluctuations have nothing to do with the intrinsic value of AERT on a day-to day-basis.

    PE ratios are not the real measure...yet.

    Best to not hold the magnifying glass to close to these daily trades (some of which are MM's manipulation), since they do not represent a change in the company, but only a change in the 'feeling' of a very few small, not particularly knowledgeable, small time players.

    I find that my best view is to watch the annual issues, because even the quarterly number can reflect the fluctuation of the characteristics of the product niche.

  • surfboredsam by surfboredsam Jul 2, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Looks like breakout move

    by vtylehnde Jun 25, 2015 3:46 PM
    surfboredsam surfboredsam Jun 26, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    Not sure the\is is all that meaningful:

    Composite Indicators Signal Strength Direction
    Get Chart Get Performance TrendSpotter Buy Weak Strongest

    Short Term Indicators
    Get Chart Get Performance 7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy Maximum Weakening
    Get Chart Get Performance 10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy Weak Strongest
    Get Chart Get Performance 20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy Average Strongest
    Get Chart Get Performance 20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell Maximum Strongest
    Get Chart Get Performance 20 Day Bollinger Bands® Hold Strongest

    Short Term Indicators Average: 40% Buy
    20-Day Average Volume - 18,110

    Medium Term Indicators
    Get Chart Get Performance 40 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold Strongest
    Get Chart Get Performance 50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy Minimum Strongest
    Get Chart Get Performance 20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell Average Strongest
    Get Chart Get Performance 50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy Average Strongest

    Medium Term Indicators Average: 25% Buy
    50-Day Average Volume - 33,632

    Long Term Indicators
    Get Chart Get Performance 60 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold Strongest
    Get Chart Get Performance 100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy Minimum Strongest
    Get Chart Get Performance 50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy Weak Strongest

    Long Term Indicators Average: 67% Buy
    100-Day Average Volume - 25,955

    Overall Average: 48% Buy

    Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
    0.0900 0.0874 0.0913 0.0952

  • Reply to

    message board ?

    by aburges49 Jun 23, 2015 11:43 AM
    surfboredsam surfboredsam Jun 24, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    "công ty" is Vietnamese for association, company, consortium, corporation, incorporate, incorporation, partnership...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shareholder meeting

    by rickbest172 Jun 18, 2015 4:36 PM
    surfboredsam surfboredsam Jun 18, 2015 9:59 PM Flag

    I wasn't present at this one, but a friend, who was there, called me. Said that there were only THREE shareholders present.

    I've been to AERT shareholder meetings where there were over 200 shareholders present, many times.

    He said that Randy Gottleib (President), who, I think, came over from HIG, was the main speaker, and seemed well-spoken, savvy about the business, and was upbeat about AERT's prognosis,.

    He also said lots of impressive new products were displayed.

    However, we didn't have time to discuss details.

    But comments my friend made give me the impression that it's going to take AERT another year to get it's #$%$ together...

    So, I can only give this porker a 'hold', but not a 'buy'.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • surfboredsam by surfboredsam Jun 6, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    The new distribution deal with Lowes, which provides for direct distribution from AERT to Lowes, thus eliminating a third party intermediate distributor, has been touted (implied) by AERT’s Tim Morrison, as being a more profitable move, and one which will help recoup the ‘changeover’ inventory-related losses incurred in Q1, by the predicted partial offsetting profits in Q2.

    However, in speaking with several persons in the industry, who are familiar with these distribution methods, in inform me that the following is likely, but not easily verifiable, and certainly not 'confirmed'. So please take this info with a grain of salt, just to be on the safe side.

    Am hearing that intermediate 3rd party distributor had been getting about 20% of the deal.

    When that 20% is no longer being paid to the distributor, about 90% (18% of the selling price) will go to Lowes, and about 10% (2% of selling price) will go back to AERT.


    If so, then AERT's average gross margin is increased by 2% of sales (from 25% to 27%) for the same amount of product sales.

    However, I would imagine that, without a third party distribution service, AERT will incur certain increased (unknown to us, as of yet) costs in SG&A, thus diminishing the positive effect of improve gross margins, by the increased required amount of SG&A. This proportionately reduces Operating Income, doesn't it? And if there are negligible in expenses, then Net Profit just passes on the money, as earnings at a 2% increase???…

  • Reply to


    by rickbest172 May 21, 2015 9:04 AM
    surfboredsam surfboredsam May 25, 2015 7:19 AM Flag

    How do you know there is "NO marketing" or "No innovative sales team"?

    How do you define "marketing"?

    Surely, you don't think that they are not "...looking at their Marketing Plan"

    Marketing does not always involve end user print or broadcast video promotion. which would be visible to you.

    There is "marketing" going on by AERT, but you are not seeing it because it is distributor incentive marketing...promos, rebates, volume discounts, etc.

    For a 30 sec national TV ad:
    -- Home improvement show can range from $75,000 - $100,000
    -- Primetime can range $150,000 - $250,000
    -- Super-bowl type can range $500,000 -$750,000

    This does not include ad production costs.

    In looking at recent q1 results, where do you suggest the money for retail level marketing come from?

    Considering the current AERT capitalization model, a $Million worth of TV sponsor ads, hits earnings at

    Their real "weak link" is inordinate debt...

    What do you estimate is the ROI on a $Million spent on TV ads? How is that balanced against capacity issues? Last year, they had a seasonal production backlog...what is happening in that equation, this year?

    A linear foot of clad board (Pro) takes much longer to extrude and make than a linear foot of unclad (original), thus diminishing linear foot production capability. And, the profit on clad is not enough to offset the differential. But they have to compete in the clad sector in order to survive. My guess is that, while they have enough extrusion capacity to produce the core, they do not have enough cladding capacity yet. Adding that capacity takes capital dollars...more debt...more interest...more dividends on preferred shares...labor...more space more dilution.....

    So, it begs the question, "Why spend more on X marketing at this particular point, if you can't meet Y demand?"

    Although it seems to be a common small investor Monday morning armchair quarterback lament, I don't think we have enough info to make judgements on their marketing plan.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Rising tide

    by garynovak16 May 19, 2015 5:57 PM
    surfboredsam surfboredsam May 22, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    Am betting that AERT's marketing strategy is aimed at distribution partners incentives, rather than being aimed at end users. Therefore, such incentives may be more invisible to you.
    Or in the case of Lowes, elimination of middle man margin increases go 90% to Lowes and 10% back to AERT.

    ** Air time for National TV ad, for home improvement show costs $75,000 to $150,000
    ** Air time for National TV ad for, for prime time show costs $200,000-$300,000
    ** National TV ad for air time, for superbowl-like show costs $500,000+

    Not to mention ad production costs.

    Not so sure AER/HIG marketing model is 'bad' or missing.

  • Reply to

    Rising tide

    by garynovak16 May 19, 2015 5:57 PM
    surfboredsam surfboredsam May 21, 2015 5:59 AM Flag

    I first heard the issue of the difference in New home vs. re-deck sales from AERT, back in 2005. Additionally, AERT stated that during cyclical swings in housing re-deck sales led new house deck by 6-9 months.

  • Reply to

    Rising tide

    by garynovak16 May 19, 2015 5:57 PM
    surfboredsam surfboredsam May 20, 2015 5:53 AM Flag

    Past models of the distribution of sales of composite decking was attributed to 80% after market vs. 20% new homes. Not sure what that breakdown is now. Often, unless on high end new homes, contractors install cheaper wood decks to hold their costs down.

  • surfboredsam by surfboredsam May 13, 2015 7:53 AM Flag

    This is a NOTIFICATION of the ADVANCED ENVIRO. RECYCLING TECH., INC. Annual Meeting of Stockholders.

    MEETING DATE: June 18, 2015 For Holders as of April 23, 2015

    CONTROL NUMBER: 8617798208091778 Internet voting is accepted up to 11:59 p.m., Eastern time, the day before the meeting/cutoff date.

    This e-mail notification contains information specific to your holdings in the security identified above.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Sales down 27% for 2015 Q1 !!!

    Net loss of $2.8 million (-$0.03/share) for Q1!

    #$%$ poor performance...There was little or no guidance last quarter on this most recent excuse (see 5/8 Press Release) for failure to make this company profitable. They expected this to happen and never mentioned it!!!!

    It seems that they are so used to missing the mark, that it must be like 'business as usual' to them.

    Not even a mediocre performance.

    Morrison IMPLIES big 2015 summer sales rebound...I wonder what excuse he will 'extrude' in August, when they don't make it, and have to announce another lackluster Q2.

    What else are they keeping secret?

    Looks like CEO Tim Morrison is turning out to be another version of BS artist Joe Brooks.


  • surfboredsam by surfboredsam May 9, 2015 2:55 PM Flag


38.00+1.20(+3.26%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT