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eMagin Corp. Message Board

surrealskiller 178 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 10:06 AM Member since: Dec 9, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Looking on the charts

    by surrealskiller Jul 1, 2015 10:20 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jul 2, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    Yeah,
    I'd think that SSDs and flash cards that Sandisk is betting on are major components for tablets and smartphones and GoPro cameras. So no PC business really. They may only gain from PC business as many laptops are switching to SSDs now. But the prices on SSDs are going down.
    I think the main current problem with Sandisk is that they lost major OEM customer - it was noted by Wedbush. Wedbush didn't mention what customer it was and I suspect it's Apple.

  • Reply to

    Got i last week at 108...

    by mjprimiano Jul 1, 2015 3:48 PM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jul 1, 2015 9:17 PM Flag

    Did you mean "it happens more than you think" or "If it happens more then you think" ? Both makes sense. Just kidding, I know what you mean. I even tried to fool myself by doing a paper trade first. Still miss the timing. It's much worse with options - stock may recover but options lose the time value.

  • Reply to

    Looking on the charts

    by surrealskiller Jul 1, 2015 10:20 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jul 1, 2015 9:04 PM Flag

    Thanks.
    I don't think current earnings will be affected but the guidance may changed. NXPI is going to adsorb FSL debt. Then there is a cost to a merger/transition. And NXPI is going to spin off some business to comply with anti-monopoly law. These are uncertainties to some extent and it may affect stock price in the next month.
    SNDK acquired FIO about a year ago and it jumped to 107 on the deal , it's 56 now - it sounded as a good idea at that time. NXPI is in different business , but I think SNDK is a good example when acquisition don't work out.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Jul 1, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    'S' stands for 'Silly Schmuck'

  • surrealskiller by surrealskiller Jul 1, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    rephrasing old joke, I am not a TA expert but I don't mind to look.
    I am usually using 3 mo charts for expectations for 1 month forward .
    I see the head'n'shoulder and it's usually bearish pattern and it could drop to 93 and even lower.
    On the other head , both RSI (14) and slow stoch are showing oversold and it's a bullish sign and I hope it will run up to 110 .
    Anyone here can read tea leaves ?
    And we have several news upcoming - shareholder meeting on 7/2 (most likely already included in price ), Greece - (referendum is still on and results are unknown ) and earnings on 7/30 with possible pre-earning announcement . Earnings themselves would probably include new guidance as FSL revenue and cost of merger would be accounted now.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 30, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    Make a pond and stock it with fish

  • Reply to

    #$%$

    by sweetwummer Jun 30, 2015 10:42 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 30, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    Gift happened

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 29, 2015 7:08 PM Flag

    I think it's an episode on Mythbusters where Kari Byron talks about Mata Hari.
    Unless,of course, cheatah misspelled seppuku .

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 29, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Any thoughts on AVGO ?

  • Reply to

    That 7.98 was a gift

    by surrealskiller Jun 25, 2015 10:02 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 25, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    Well, I am looking on 3 month charts and yes, 5.90-6.10 at the beginning of May were good entries. But the stock wasn't moving too much at that time.
    Now we have almost 50% run up in 2 weeks (from 6.10 to 8.99) and then it was a sudden drop from 8.60 to 7.98 yesterday. So my comment is about this recent price movement . Expect pullback.
    Nothing really stops HIMX to drop to 6-7 range somewhere in the future. Or 0 in that sense. i am not trying to predict long term prices based on TA .
    But if we talk about July 17th week the chart look like it's going down and the RSI and SlowStoch show still oversold but going down as well. So I'd think that it will be out of overbought range in 3 weeks and expect that someone would try to pin the stock to 8.
    Now, if Microsoft releases HoloLense n July 2nd and say great things about Himax the hype may kick in and all my analysis will be worth of dog's breakfast.

  • Reply to

    SEC........

    by svs8200 Jun 25, 2015 10:50 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 25, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    The only way to prove manipulation by Mr Ross is to demonstrate that he was compensated to produce that analysis. IMO, he did nothing wrong - presented charts, talked about them , and it was after trading hours. I've seen much worse - e.g. a know short analyst downgraded OLED based on false rumors that Samsung is not going to use AMOLED screens in then upcoming Galaxy S4. And it happened on Monday of OpEx week. Sure enough , a week later Galaxy S4 is released with Amoled screens and stock rebounded from 10 or 15% drop. That was openly blatant lie by analyst and yet he is still walking free.
    Here we are talking about charts presented by technical guy and all TA come with disclaimer "your mileage may vary"

  • surrealskiller by surrealskiller Jun 25, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    Or it seems so.
    I am using 3month RSI and SlowStoch and they still both show overbought .
    Don't pay attention to what fsusmatty says about RSI - he doesn't know how to use it.
    I would expect pull back to 8 or even just below 8 by July OpEx week.
    On the other hand. my tea leaves say that it won't go below 7.50
    So if you missed that 7.98 entry, just be patient , it may come to you soon.
    That's all , of course, is based on assumption that there is no news drop on HIMX meanwhile.

  • Reply to

    OT stockgirrrl on 4/9/18

    by surrealskiller Jun 25, 2015 8:43 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 25, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    Well
    The trading system is a model and every model has assumptions it is based on. So it's only valid as long those assumptions are valid . That's just my physics education talking.
    So to some extent nncy is right about 20% drop making TA invalid. I usually consider it as "news trumps TA every time" be it earning report or upgrade/downgrade .
    But to counter nncy I brought up ORCL which dropped on June 18th about 8% and yet still miss 4dma 3 times in a row. And another thought on this is that these major moves in stock price are the ones that makes investors panic or get euphoric and her 4/9/18 system supposed to ease exactly that pain.
    I usually use 3mo RIS and SloSto as guidelines for trading .

  • surrealskiller by surrealskiller Jun 25, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    Can you clarify how it works again (yes, I'm slow)
    Here is AMBA that missed 3 days touching its 4d ma.
    So there is great chance it would probably touch it today - say if by EOD one would expect 4d ma be a 100 then pps should get to 101.74 intraday to cross the line. Am I right ? And it can even go to 99.42 at closing and still touch 4d ma (that would be 99.42 ).
    That's very reasonable expectation especially given current pre-market action.
    But as it missed already 3 times to touch the 4dma then 9d and 18d ma rules should kick in ? How would they be applied in AMBA ?
    if you don't like use AMBA as example, use ORCL, it missed 3 days recently as well .
    Thanks

  • Reply to

    OT: for mike (aka cindy...)

    by stocksgirrl Jun 22, 2015 5:51 PM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 23, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    Thanks.
    In all honesty, I think , almost any system would make money - when you remove emotions from the trading and replace guessing with algorithms you may miss crazy lucky returns but you gain consistency and retain sanity. This system is very simple and easy to follow. I will use it as an additional 'check rule' before placing a trade.

  • Reply to

    OT: for mike (aka cindy...)

    by stocksgirrl Jun 22, 2015 5:51 PM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 23, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    Right.
    So it's basically a mathematical justification to "don't chase the stock" advice.
    It's hard to not to get itchy when the stock keeps going up and up and your entry bid seems like never will be filled. Here is a calm calculation of what to expect.

  • Reply to

    OT: for mike (aka cindy...)

    by stocksgirrl Jun 22, 2015 5:51 PM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 23, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    Not sure what is so special about this 4 days system. That's how one would calculate 4 dma - that's why it would touch it everyday with probable exception to miss 2 days. For the stock NOT to touch its 4 days ma more than 2 days in the row it should be going parabolic ( rise or fall ) .
    I mean, it HAS to work because that's how the averages are calculated and if you don't believe this system you would be dreaming of parabolic / exponential rise.
    4/9/18 approach is interesting - reminded me elliott waves, I need to ponder about that for some time.

  • Reply to

    ot AMBA

    by nncy_drk Jun 19, 2015 12:25 PM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 22, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    Nice.
    I bought weeklies AMBA 100 put around 10am at 3.50 and set sell to close at 5.50 and it was executed while I was at lunch. I wasn't expecting it so fast.
    There will be dead cat bounce , probably tomorrow, but it's way too volatile now. I know you guys are more technical than i am but I am not sure that this irrationality can be handled by any indicator.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 22, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    That's the worst mistake.
    This is cold heartless money - being married to stock is a typical rookie mistake.
    You not going to prove to anyone anything .Don't sell in panic but have exit strategy.
    Sometimes things don't pan out and you have to lick your wounds and get on your feet for new fights. The sooner you realize it the better for you.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Jun 22, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    It's just the money.
    There will dead cat bounce but who knows when and how much but you should sell just because it affects your mental state. Or walk away from the monitors and think how you can salvage what's left and come back and execute new strategy. I am almost a pro at losing in investing - I've been GTAT last September

EMAN
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