Very upbeat CC.
I am listening replay (and typing along )
- one R&D contract is already signed
- talked to about t 10 AR / wearable companies .
- no other micro-OLED company has direct patterning tech
- companies who make OLED TVs are not capable to make small displays
- taking away market share from LCOS
- 24,000 nits in green color (monochrome) display - no one has so bright/contrast displays (even LCoS)
- seal system is impressive (missed the tech numbers)
- there was shutdown in July - Satella annual clean up, new power equipment installed, clean room improvements.
- DSVGA finished in second quarter to replace SVGA+ (biggest seller)
- avionics is key growth area (taking share from LCoS - new and retrofits)
- consumer HMD market is large but second after avionics
Himax (LCoS) is at disadvantage because of LED and optics and they can barely produce 1000 nits. Kopin LCD's are even worse than LCoS. 5000 nits that Himax and Kopin advertise have 10+ times worse contrast and also require a lot of power.
- 600 displays per wafer (!) for consumer market. Current running rate is 160 display per wafer.
- the major wearable company declared (in the press) that they want to switch to OLED. If what you read in the news is true what choice they have but eMagin .( C'mon can you give a better hint for a company name - I want to buy a vowel)
- R&D contracts were about 7M in 2010 , we are not going to get to that level but it will be significant and it will build up over time. Q4 should be more than Q3 and even more next year.
- partnership for consumer HMD - 3000 per month is reasonable now, would consider partnership for million per month run rate.
- if you make consumer product it doesn't have to be made in US.
Piper and Oppenheimer were absent - their loss.
Fell free to add /correct what I missed.
One thing with secondary is that if price drops it goes to just below secondary price level. And I doubt that it would be priced at 2. There isn't too much game for shorts and put holders.
I am hoping that shelf registration was to give Google an opportunity to invest into EMAN without gobbling the floats and bringing havoc in market.
I have a feeling that recent short volume increase was in expectation for upcoming secondary. And there is a good chance it will be bundled together with earning report today. I mean we have shelf registration already so the other shoe should drop eventually. Although , secondary doesn't necessary result in pps drop - PANL did secondary in April '11 at around 45 and still went up another 10% for another month or so.
I haven't listen to Dr. Fan. The report doesn't seem to be great. They have new military contract and increase their guidance for the revenue but they maintaining the total net loss numbers. It means that the military contract will be pretty much a wash for them - whatever "solution" they sell it will be quite low margin.
Does anyone have more insight than I can pick from yahoo bits ?
I stopped making guestimates on revenue and prefer to admit my complete incompetence there.
My questions for CC:
- any update on HQ move from WA to NY (when, the cost etc.)
- more details on OLED Lighting R&D
Lines in the Sand , indeed.
I haven't sold my EMAN long shares this year yet , only bought a few. I did sell December puts though. It made sense back then - my fav excuse.
200 EMA is about 2.60
we need 10% jump to get over which is doable with a good guidance.
And even less if we do some baby steps ahead.
Let see if The Sellers of Put 5 were right.
OLED/PANL is reporting this week and hopes there are high . Although we were never found guilty by association.
Well, you don't really have to buy the stock if it craters but you're right in a sense that account margin requirements are different between buying calls and selling puts. At least on etrade.
Another game if you think that premiums are high is vertical spread. Buy 32 , sell 37. The premiums are usually inflated in both strikes. You would limit yourself in possible profit but if you are dreaming of "pi in the ski" you shouldn't get into options at all.
Not sure where we disagree.
Are you saying that retail investors were right with PBYI and hedgies were wrong ?
I think that there are two-three big money funds that were expecting these results and played it into short squeeze against all other hedgies. $1.5B traded in PBYI today by now. What kind of retail investors have these money ?
The insanity is the 300% run up. Everything else seems kind of sluggish and even about to fold - Apple lost its golden touch, no earning is good enough, etc. Market is in search for "magic" and it finds it today in PBYI. "Hey , you can still make crazy money in stocks if you find the perfect stock" . That search itself is insanity.
We found our perfect stock, we are just waiting for the rest of the market to find it.
The only thing that PBYI shows that market is insane.
There was another craziness about 4 months ago with PLUG
Actually, I have a theory that some of hedge funds figure out how to fool computer algorithms of other hedge funds. Noway retail investors can make this volume of PBYI . So it's kind of like computer trading war - someone designed algorithm to make money on trading spreads, and then someone designed algorithm to fool that algorithm and so on.
"How many are Sales closing their Positions ????"
That's what I was pondering too. The option daily chart (on etrade) shows trades were scattered all over, not one time trade.
I don't think that upcoming earnings report would be so great that it would bring up stock above 5 bucks and make those options worthless. Well, a buyout offer , on the other hand , would. I am not that experienced in options - what would happen to options if there is a buyout , say at 5. Would 7.5 put become worthless as well ?
There is 0 open interest on 2.5 puts. Apparently, it's not attractive enough. Makes more sense in case of buyout as well.
All is my opinion and speculations , of course.
Most August put options activity started Friday and continuing today.
To me it looks like people are selling August 5 puts counting that the stock will jump up.
Basically, selling August 5 Puts for $3 is the same as buying stock for $2 at expiration .