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DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Message Board

surrealskiller 173 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Dec 9, 2009
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  • That's why we have this crazy volume

  • Reply to

    This is why KOPN is down

    by bjr03001 Aug 7, 2015 11:18 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 11, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    The guidance was rather misleading as well. They are going to get another payment from sale of III-IV and that's the only reason for higher numbers.
    Remember the uptick in revenue 6 months ago - that was because Emagin had problem with wire bonding in their microdisplays and one of their contracts went to Kopin. That issue was fixed by Emagin and the contract to Kopin is not renewed.
    The bigger problem with Kopin is that they stopped working on their microdisplays. That was a major shift Dr Fan announced about 2 years (?) ago - that they are going to be software company in wearable tech. So they are still making microdisplays to existing customers and wouldn't mind to sell to new customers but they not developing new models of their microdisplays.
    Now if you step back and look on what is going on with Kopin - they are selling the company off piece by piece: first III-IV, then Recon. So , yes, on papers the company is doing great but in reality they went all-out on wearable tech software and it's a very risky bet that someone will buy them out.
    I wish there would be someone here who can make s list of Kopin patents with their expiration dates .
    Betting on buyout is rarely a winning game - e.g. with today share price $3 would be an almost 15% premium and many longs here will be still underwater.

  • Reply to

    research note for AAPL

    by toast22342000 Aug 11, 2015 7:23 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 11, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    It's a one-way street - after Android users switch to iPhone they don't switch back. I have Android phone and I convinced my kids that Android is on par with iPhone and they bought it . But when their contract expired they switched to iPhone and they have no regrets.
    Palm - RIP
    Blackberry - RIP
    Windows Phone - RIP

  • surrealskiller by surrealskiller Aug 10, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    At least on eTrade :
    New Requirement: 75%
    Old Requirement: 60%

  • Reply to

    KOPN mil biz declines; EMAN 2H15 mil share ~80%

    by bjr03001 Aug 7, 2015 11:23 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 10, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    KOPN is seriously beaten. They are still running on cash they raised from secondary and sale of III-IV .
    The stock price is at multi-year low and goes just little more than book value. It's a sign of "no growth" company.The pps jumped after earnings for one day and keeps dropping after. I think Dr. Fan seriously miscalculated the value of their software patents. There are behemoths like Google and Microsoft (who got all Nokia patents as I understand) in the area of software for wearable tech and it's all in the game of API adoption.
    I wonder how long KOPN would go before Dr Fan would be moved to CTO role and someone else would take the reigns.

  • Reply to


    by mekopelet1 Aug 8, 2015 5:18 PM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 10, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    Is this a joke or just misunderstanding the technology.
    OLED screens produced pretty much like LCD screens.
    How many LCD manufacturing facilities in US do you know ?
    In general the phrase "manufacturing in US" sounds like bad joke since Clinton's time.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Got it.
    My point was that Taiwanese law may be different from US law in terms of expenses. Bringing US tax code into discussion with citing specific article numbers is useless exercise.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    It's even worse - 12 of 15 days down.
    It was 5 days down which was already a push, then 3 days up and now it's another long streak .
    My guess if it's not coming back like 300 points in the beginning of next week it's should be called something more than "correction"

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Small detail - Himax is not US company.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    What IRS has to do with Himax ?
    I'd think that Taiwan tax code is similar but it's not given.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Oh man, I thought I have problems !
    "can't imagine anything exciting" and "thinking of putting my money in" ??
    Is it Morning Bill vs Evening Bill , or drunk vs sober, or before and after medication ?
    I'd expect this type of behavior from tech trader but you're not that kind of investor.

  • Reply to

    Rob Citrone's selling

    by surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 10:53 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    OK. Non-discreationary they were. I've been here long enough - UDC directors don't trade company stock. They just grant stocks to themselves according their contracts and sell them on predefined trading plan basis.
    RC started selling . Face it even if it may sound surreal to you. In 3 days we will know if he bought at 40 on the dip as he did in November 2013.
    Tell me , the smart one , what's your projections on sale volumes of Lighting materials and when do you think it will happen. My guestimate it will not go beyond proof of concept levels.

  • Reply to

    Rob Citrone's selling

    by surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 10:53 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Oh, darn , should have proof read it.
    "Now pretty much the same people tell me that host business was more of a side effect and really business model did NOT change" - intended sentence.

  • Reply to

    Rob Citrone's selling

    by surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 10:53 AM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Good points.
    A couple years ago I was posting here that OLED (nee PANL) has business model of Rambus - owning patents and sell licenses . It's high margin model but limited growth. I was convinced by many posters here that material sales are big part of their business model and should not be disregarded. Surely, Q1 was a real convincing for me and seemed like proved that point. Now pretty much the same people tell me that host business was more of a side effect and really business model did change. OK.
    I will then repeat what I was saying few years back about RC and Discovery - don't worry how much he owns, worry when he start selling. My post above was an attempt to guess his reason to sell as he held through crash and burn of November 2013(?).

  • surrealskiller by surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    I looked over SEC filing
    So he was selling in "small" chunks for 3 days - 8/3, 8/4 and 8/5 . And he had to report within 3 days so he reported it on 8/5 .
    My guess is that he will wait over this post-ER reaction and will sell more. He is probably #$%$ off - Julia Brown sold at 55 and Sid and Sherwin sold at 52 a month ahead but he was waiting in the dark up to last 3 days before earnings .
    You guys can say whatever about "cleaning the house" but that green host write off is change of business model. Not completely radical change - just one of sources of revenue suddenly became much smaller and going forward it is not going increase. And with Sammy's agreement to renew in a year and a half it's quite possible that new agreement will not be even good. SMD always had upper hand in the game and now they have Cheli card. I know that all longs here like to talk about OLED lighting and how it will be a future but I don't think companies will buy materials from UDC for lighting products.
    So in this view RC would just say "done" and if the next Form 4 from him will trigger a big sell off.
    My August calls are just a joke now - well, the whole week was a disaster for me, so OLED is just an icing on that pie in my face.

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 7, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    It sounds like you already started polishing yours.
    Are you going to listen to CC ?
    Have you put your money in ?

  • surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 4, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Few notes:
    1. Some famous short fund manager said yesterday on CNBC that he wants to short INTC. Vuzix is probably more tied to Intel now than to Kopin.
    2. Read Kopin's earning report. Their "crush the numbers" are not from selling microdisplays. They sell their investment in Recon to Intel and counted it as revenue. They have another line I don't understand - 'Total revenues for the second quarter ended June 27, 2015, were $10.9 million, compared with $6.9 million for the second quarter of 2014. Included in 2015 revenues was $3.8 million related to renegotiated contract terms due to the customer’s lowered forecasted program volumes " So if it wasn't 3.8M related to renegotiated contract the revenue would be pretty much flat. The guidance - again, read it, they expect another check from III-IV sale and that's the bulk of "growth of revenue".
    3. There must be news coming out from Vuzix. At least they have to set the date of CC. This anticipation of the (bad) news is bringing stock down and usually it's a sign that stock will jump on the news as it's most likely will not be bad.
    4. Many tech stocks are down today - SWKS has reported great earnings, great guidance etc and it's down 25% since earning release. HIMX is going to report in 2 days and it's just getting hammered in preparation. You're in the good company, if it makes any condolences.

  • Reply to

    Correction ?

    by surrealskiller Aug 4, 2015 1:37 PM
    surrealskiller surrealskiller Aug 4, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    I messed up with my timing in SNDK and missed the 65 and sold my 55 calls today. Got only 50% of profit I could have if I was smarter. Anyway, if I had cash I'd get into MU and sell covered calls on every bump. Meanwhile I am playing with options in APPL suppliers - SWKS , AVGO, NXPI. When I am lucky I get 200 profit and when I am not so lucky I get 800 loss.
    Bargains are going to be in next couple weeks and then probably at Rosh Hashanah and then in October. Not sure why October but everybody on SWKS board is talking about hitting lows in October.
    I finally got out of margin call and can survive for some time.

  • surrealskiller by surrealskiller Aug 4, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    Looks like there is a correction going in full swing in techs stocks
    Just going over the stocks in the AR/VR space :
    VUZI just hit below $5 which was Intel investment point. VUZI seems to recover a bit but it was hitting low 5s recently as well. I wasn't big fan of VUZI anyway but it supposed to launch new video gear this summer and I think it did and it's too quiet in Vuzix PR department.So it may drop some news soon and the stock will jump 10-15% or it will release meh earnings and it will sunk.
    KOPN just release incredible earnings - 56% growth, profitable etc. Stock jumped 13%. That is 13% from multi-year low of 2.70 that was reached yesterday. It need to run like that for a week to get back to levels it used to be.
    HIMX is going to release the earnings in 2 days. It's broke through 7 level which seemed to be a major support . I guess it's all bundled into recent "China syndrome" . I managed to sell September 9 Calls in July run up and now I am just waiting for them to expire
    MVIS released a good earnings and had a run up before earigns and dropped on ER day and now is recovering . It's way off 4 level it had in March but it seems to be ok.
    So how EMAN would fit into it with today CC date announcement ?
    I hope that the beating of tech will continue for a few more days and while it may affect HIMX it won't hurt EMAN too much- it's already quite low. Then I would expect some run up for about 3-4 days before earnings. And I am not going to predict earnings numbers and guidance. Whatever will happen will happen.

  • surrealskiller by surrealskiller Aug 3, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    it has to repeat 3 times now.

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