s&p 500 same now as in 2000 and 2007 and both times the market crashed. bagholders stand in line. the next crash will happen, because the lies are deeper than ever.
bagholders stay around at the top. i am betting/ guessing this is near the top, and am hedging some oil longs, with some vix longs, an small caps shorts. small caps will go broke on borrowed money that cannot repay.
only 3 million new jobs in 13 years.. that's short of the previous 50 year trend which was headed toward 200,000 jobs per month/ 2.4 million per year/ 31 million for 13 years. the Fed is saying household wealth is restored and all of us are saying #$%$ artists. nothing more. except. excellent conartists and money launderers too.
guessing selling high/ profit taking. also headline;China shares could post a fourth-straight daily loss on Tuesday
reinitiated tvix for hopeful volatility boost, as well as iwm put. risky but limited risk on porfolio. too much long stocks managed by others. most fun is catching the occaisonal downdraft. chart looks more favorable on two day multi index. not for certain, was in for part of a day twice last week, and bailed, but must hold on to tvix, and hope for payback before time errosion. thinking shorts on tvix will get scorched here (mostly hoping). but guessing big money will play a downside table talk before May. not much, cross my fingers. iwm puts is money in the market casino- that is a blat. leverage is 50 t0 1. with 100% near the money. too much fun. feeling like a 2-3% pullback is better than 50/50 before tax day. if only 2-3% will be disappointed, as my bet is that 5-10% may be above 50%
you can gain 46% in a year in a 401 but the current limit i think is 4 trades in 5 days to avoid day trader id. there are plenty of moves in stocks to gain 46% with say 100 to 150 trades in a year. in fact if you hold the trade overnight it is not a day trade, so you can trade unlimited over night trades in multiple stocks. so no, this guy is not lying in theory, by far. there are many people who achieve or exceed this level.
overall the indexes exceed managed money, because indexes are rebalanced to drop out loosers for one, and abberations for 2. to see how portfolios do, look at your own money over 10 years. fidelity magellan is up just over 5% annualized over the past 10 years. And if the market pulls back 10 to 50% from todays highs in some indexes,then the 10 year portfolios will suddenly really sick once again.
bond funds move down too, but they can pay big dividends along the way. get dual citizenship and put some money overseas in a high yield nation, like India.
if you happened to start investing after crash number 2 in 2008 and kept it up in the rigt companies or just indexes you would be o.k., but if you were a portfolio investor since 1999, overall you would be suffering massive damage from the companies that got blown out of business and did huge damage to your portfolio. As of Dec. 2011, state pension funds have taken big setbacks from the 2008 crash. These funds will take months, perhaps 9 months to assess 2012, as they are now slowing way down their annual reviewing, I suppose wondering if there will be a third big blow it in 13 years. Wisconsin waited all of the way until November to report the prior calendar year performance, blaming it on the laws. Their five year averaging resulted in another annual huge cutback for pension plan holders, who are in a fund which is stupidly over invested in the wildass stock market. There is no reason any longer for these big funds to support the stock market.
you almost sound like you know what you are saying, however, you either sell puts and calls or you buy puts or calls. you sell stocks or you buy stocks. you can also short stocks, but who is allowed to sell naked puts except for the longs and market makers. am i having another stupid session or what? seriously, let me know. i should not chide something that may be something i don't get. short vix puts. first, does vix have puts? wow, you lost me. truly. i will have to think about that one.
i just added to my iwm spring puts, and tvix. these jobs numbers are somewhat low for par. no big deal. everything is factored in except the extended federal contraction. if obama pushes out an executive order beheading the aristocracy i will gladly lose on my puts. but even if he does, a technical pull back is in order here. the news follows the market moves.
it looks like a hard on, and the market at best is on viagra. she will slap it down.
and he cries and throws things around for months when the extended correction happens. that is all i am saying. it is not the end of the world. but sequestration is going to be super broad in it's effects upon all companies. it will take major trickle down to heal this, and maybe if the Fed buys up all of the stock it will be good. but i just don't think lending money out in failure, and braking the economy in the name of inflation control for 90 years has worked. i see a big shithole out there with some glass towers scattered about. that is what the Fed and aristocrats have accomplished for America. They are a bunch of self serving globalist traitors.
fed has been at it for five years and federal receipts are the same as 13 years ago. it is about an intrinsic collapse in fiscal receipts. i was right in august of 2007, off just a few weeks. i just see what is going on that counts. the federal cutback will affect all companies, and all stocks, except the federal reserve profits will continue to skyrocket. do you have stock in the federal reserve? that is the one safe stock, until the nation kicks the aristocrats out of the nation.
what is happening will spiral downward, not upward. companies make all of the products for the government. the companies are going to lose their biggest company, practically across the board. it is not about selling overseas, unless you are talking military purchases. the john deere's will not stop the bleeding. it is so obvious what is coming. and it is just beginning. nope, i am holding the puts and vixes i bought yesterday. this is very close to the top, and even if it climbs, it will fall way below here.
love that humor. okay so i am over responding now. when i got out of the market in August 2007 I was a bit early. But things were going poorly for the masses. 8 years and jobs creation was off by 145,000 every month on average, and bankruptcies had been skyrocketing since 1991. But I got out then because of the high market price and the news in Europe that Hank Paulson had stolen 4.5 trillion dollars in 2006 with George Bush. This time is worse. We have continued to have horrible jobs creation. Now only 3 million new jobs in 13 years. What the hell is that. The Federal income has been virtually flat for 13 years. The Federal Reserve is playing shell games but should have put a dent in the missing 27 million jobs- yes we should be creating 200,000 to 210,000 jobs a month. I know the aristocrats see unlimited space for poverty and no jobs in this country because they want everybody except themselves to be rich. It just seems to make them feel like things are working then. So forget all of that, the market is at 14,000 while the Federal government is shrinking while the population is growing without new jobs. So how are all of our American public companies and their stocks going to earn money now. Trickle down from the Fed is creating no jobs. They do not lend to small businesses. Citi commerical told me they no longer do commerical loans. #$%$ is that- I call this an overthrow by aristocrats, or traitors, because they forced borrowing on the Federal government when they took over the Fed. Kucinich tried to fix, but they tossed him out, and put his NEED Act on mothballs.
you be a bagholder. know whad i mean? think. who would buy now but pension funds and bagholders. the federal government is shrinkwrapping the nations future. only the aristocracy will grow with dark ugly flowers.
this will be another crash now is my bet. i cannot conceive of buying now at the top with massive disruptive and shrinkwrapping cutbacks by uncle sam. i got out of stocks in august of 2007 and have been way cautious, too cautious, sticking to bonds. but i avoided a lot of companies that went bust. bernanke will not do what it takes to stop the crash because the fed is behind everything that goes wrong. we have been run by aristocrats for 100 years, instead of patriots. you don't be the world leader and police the world with a bunch of aristocrats running things. the politicians work for the aristocrats, not the well being of the nation. that is why we have so often been in debt, and now because of the aristocrats, the federal reserve types, we are 16 trillion in debt, slowed way down, instead of growing massively for 100 years and being ahead of China for each and every year of the last 50 years. these aristocrats have been developing their world power instead of the world power of the federal government and the power and wealth of the masses of America.
the private flow will not prop up the run for the door on defense. i don't believe it. i am not always right, but mostly.
feels like a lion or a vulture, definitely not an investor feeling