one FAQs EU site referenced "active" days....if its business days then its 210 business days to CHMP
then 67 more business to EU official decision...early Q3 2017
Now i think its 210 "active days to CHMP opinion..67 active days for official EU approval..
which would put EU approval in early Q3 2017 which does tie to that analysts projected date..
I believe its 210 days (not business days) to the CHMP opinion.....then 67 additional days for the official
EU decision...total 277 days....not sure if there is some early additional time at the front end to make sure
everything is in order i.e. accepted?.....one analyst put EU approval in Q3 2017 but I couldn't reconcile to that timeline....
okay lets award our sales staff with inducement grants at levels that will only pay off with a BO at which point
they lose their jobs.....jeez we must really be scraping the bottom of the barrel of the hiring pool for sales reps...
better inducement would be to apply more towards bonuses for actually hitting sales targets...of course thats
a cash outlay presumably paid for in higher revenues.....nah,,,its easier to just dilute shareholders instead,,,
1) slow launch metrics indicate a small chronic market........(IMO its way too early to determine eventual size..
most drugs take several years to penetrate....also if thats the case he better advise his client
AZN to write-off their 2.7 BB fiasco.....
2) he tries to say may paid scripts of 1230 indicate a large portion of the 928 april paid scripts are either dropping off therapy or not using the drug consistently due to bad AE's..........i thought monthly paid scripts # were all new patients?....does anyone else have insight to what he is suggesting
3) he says now there is limited strategic optionality(BO) because buyers want to wait for better launch metrics(cause they want to pay more?) and to see what label looks like for zsalt..(so he references that buyers want to wait for the outcome of a drug that was boughtout by big pharma prior to approval? that is contradictory...
4) COGS is too high and will never achieve profitability anyway.....(this may be his only accurate point..
their burn rate is way to high)
In any event, I still believe company gets BO in the low-mid 30's........GLTA
OMG.....you better check before you speak....you can set limit orders for the planned sale as opposed to market order...you are mistaken...and btw.. i am not a bear but do believe the BO if it materializes will be in low 30's
I agree with that..my contention is that he established what he thought stock was worth when he set the sale price at 28 to 29..... if he had "strategic optionality" in mind and felt it was materially higher, he would have set a presale price closer to 40 or 50....instead he was more than willing to sell at 28 to 29...
I think we know exactly what Orwin thinks its worth..He was willing to sell at 28 to 29 on that 12b5-1 planned sale in December,,,when he did that (right after that first rumor) we should have known no buyout was imminent....no way you sell stock if you truly believe its worth 50 or more.....so therefore IF a buyout occurs its
likely to be in the low to mid 30's at this juncture.... If the Reuters rumor had any basis in fact, I think a deal by early July (3 months from rumor is plenty of time)...if not then, we may be in for a very long wait...