If you noticed I didn't use the current sales figures in any way, it's understandable that current numbers don't matter. But when a company is growing in a saturated market, at some point you have to start looking at the potential for growth, market share, margins, define the time horizon, and do your best to figure out what kind of returns you'd like to see, whether using DCF or another method. Sure, you can tweak DCF to arrive at any random number, but taking realistic input parameters I'm arriving at a conclusion that $22B valuation is iffy, $30B valuation is a borderline to get on the sale side, and $40B valuation is plain nuts. We'll see, I guess. Good luck.
At $20B valuation some people might be wiling to take a risk, maybe there's some return to be had. At $40B valuation there are no returns to speak of in the foreseeable future, numbers simply do not support it. At $40B valuation it's a definite short. Company will have to grow to half the size of F or GM to support that kind of valuation, that's not happening anytime soon, certainly not in the timeframe to justify that kind of risk/reward ratio.
LOL, at $300 I'll sell everything I own, max out all my credit cars, borrow all I can from my friends and family, and I'll go all-in short on a margin.
Now it all makes sense, he probably got confused converting rupee, lakh and crore into dollars. He said 10K times 500K is 5 million... "offshore pumper" sounds about right...
LOL, you're on Yahoo message boards while touring the factory? LMAO. Well, 4750 cars in Q1, 5150 cars in Q2, subtract that from 23764, so you're telling us they've sold 13,864 in Q3, and the quarter isn't even over yet?????? LMAO... Well, yeah, you couldn't even multiply 10K by 500K, I wouldn't trust your numbers...
I'm totally clueless as to what you're saying. Are you long, short, what? Well, anyway, 10K * 500K cars is NOT 50 million, it's 5 BILLION. But that kind of profit margin exists only in la-la land. 10% for a car manufacturer would be amazing. Do the math, it goes back to $25-$30 billion valuation. Discount that to today and with 12% per year for 10 years you should arrive at the current valuation of $10 billion, at most. Based on these assumptions the stock is currently overpriced by 2x. Now, whether they will reach 500K cars in 10 years or not is a speculation, and for that risk (if you know anything about risk valuation) you should expect annualized return of 15%+ , so with that the current valuation should be EVEN lower. Current buyers are overpaying by at least 3x for the kind of risk they're taking.
Well, you tell me the numbers/dates and I'll do math for you. In how long? 10 years? What's the average price per vehicle then? $50K? OK, here we go:
500K * $50K = $25B
All car companies right now trade @ less than yearly sales. Let's give TSLA benefit of a doubt (since they claim higher profit margins and all) and let it trade it at par. That's $25B valuation in 10 years. Right now it's trading at $22.37B. Plug that into the formula and you get... wait for it... a whopping 1.2% ANNUALIZED RETURN!!!!! Whoo-hoo, who needs bonds when you can make this kind of return on this very safe investment, right?!?!?!?
I replied to one of your posts probably a month ago, basically agreeing with you, this is nothing but irrational exuberance. But I also mentioned I wouldn't want to short it before it reached $20B valuation. Here we are staring at $22B... I think they might push it even higher, the lunatics are everywhere, so I'm staying out for now. At $30B I think it'll be an obvious short, numbers just won't add up anymore, even with 1M cars projected in 10 years, dcf model will look horrible. I'm going to wait till Q3 earnings are out, I have a feeling they will beat their artificially low estimates and it'll pop again. If it reaches $250 I'll get on the sell side.
If the stock every reaches $1.8M valuation per car sold I will liquidate everything I own and go short, all-in, plus the leverage.
I don't necessarily disagree, I just congratulated longs. I stayed out of shorting until now, but at $200 it might be tempting...