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Breitburn Energy Partners L.P. Message Board

swgastar 21 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 7, 2015 2:14 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2008
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  • swgastar swgastar Jan 7, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    The oil will still be there its not going anywhere.Why not wait till the price goes up instead of selling it for $40.NDRO being debt free doesn't have to sell like a lot of companies do.

  • Reply to

    Did LNCO open the door for MEMP to cut?

    by keltus1952 Jan 2, 2015 9:38 AM
    swgastar swgastar Jan 2, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    This is confusing to me.Stock prices drop because of fear in the market of a cut and then they cut and the share price goes up.MEMP will not have to cut because of hedges and because of a lower payout from the shares they purchased.Thats my opinion anyway.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • swgastar by swgastar Dec 29, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    When oil hit $50 stock prices bottomed and by the time it hit $30 all the damage had already been done and stocks didn't drop much from $50 to $30.If this replays itself we should be getting close to a bottom since oil is currently getting close to $50.NDRO had oil production last month that was the highest since early 2012 with still more room to run in the 1st quarter.We have big sellers unloading shares and that's bringing the price down.I think after Jan 1 this will end and we could go higher.With no debt and no management risk I cant see how this thing could be high risk for long term holders.But then I was saying the same thing when we went under $10.Instead of drilling new wells they should be buying back shares if bylaws permitted it.

  • Reply to

    What is NDRO's hedge position?

    by fish2026 Dec 26, 2014 12:45 PM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 27, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    No hedges but on the bright side oil production was the highest since early 2012 and that was for only 13 of the 20 Wolfcamp wells drilled accounted for. NDRO has been punished worse than most royalty trust and has shown better production.growth.Its a shame they cant buy back shares at the current price.

  • Reply to

    Price Drop

    by swgastar Dec 26, 2014 10:19 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 26, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    If it bottoms at $3 it would have a $99 million market cap equal to 1 years cash flow.If it gets that low this would be the the deal of the century.Riverstone should have never bought so many shares if they didn't plan on holding them.They must have had clients cashing out forcing a sale.

  • swgastar by swgastar Dec 26, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    It looks like Riverstone has sold close to 16 million shares.Dumping all these shares while oil and gas prices are low has killed this trust.I sure wouldn't want them investing my money because now is the time to buy instead of selling.NDRO is currently selling at fire sell prices.This trust is priced for $30 oil.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Still not producing

    by huronsunrise Dec 19, 2014 10:10 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 19, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    Kurt Wulff said Oct 2013 that the Lost Tank wells were shut in because of no pipeline to carry the nat gas produced in these wells.Im as shocked as you that these wells are not already producing but I guess it just took longer to get this pipeline put in..NDRO has a high working interest in these wells so if they are any good at all it should add to the distributions.

  • Reply to

    Market psychology amazes me

    by logicaldeduction Dec 19, 2014 7:55 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 19, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    Funny thing about MEMP is it doesn't matter if oil goes up or down since prices are already locked in.,The market just doesn't get the fact that we are hedged to protect against low prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What a moronic downgrade by RBC?

    by bheuyard Dec 18, 2014 10:29 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 18, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    No debt,no management risk,this trust only has commodity price risk and I think were closer to a bottom than most think..NDRO has been taken out behind the barn and shot because they invested in new wells.Once oil returns this will outperform most oil and gas trust.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy Back...

    by mac94921 Dec 18, 2014 9:30 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 18, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    If they retire the shares it will be a positive.

  • Reply to

    Buy Back...

    by mac94921 Dec 18, 2014 9:30 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 18, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Great move on their part.Buying back shares they sold months earlier for over $20.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha Article

    by railhead23 Dec 15, 2014 11:36 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 17, 2014 12:35 AM Flag

    Ace why are you still banging this trust?If you don't own any what makes it any difference to you.I feel good picked up 2 500 shares under $5.yesterday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Writer seems to think dividend will be maintained thru 2015 because of hedges.I wonder where that guy kousin lou went that said he had millions of shares did he kill himself?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Near A Bottom

    by swgastar Dec 12, 2014 10:40 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 15, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    In 2008 when oil hit $50 was when selling stopped and by the time it got to $30 no one was left to sell.If this time is different who knows.

  • swgastar swgastar Dec 15, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    When you get this type of selling a bottom is getting close.These traders are selling just because its down doesn't matter they have covered all bases including hedging interest rates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Near A Bottom

    by swgastar Dec 12, 2014 10:40 AM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 15, 2014 12:36 AM Flag

    It all comes down to Ali al Naimi Saudi oil minister.His plan to slow shale and Canaidian oil sands has worked.MEMP .being hedged for the next 5 years gives the market plenty of time to get balanced.We may drop in price but dividends are safe.When this current oil imbalance turns the upside will be huge and I would rather take some pain rather than to miss the upside when it comes.I have to admit this downturn blindsided me I didn't see it coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • swgastar by swgastar Dec 12, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    According to the WSJ front month contracts on the NYSE indicate oil is bottoming or close to it.All the panic selling seems to be slowing in MEMP.This is the only oil related stock I trust because the oil markets have 4 yrs to correct themselves before it hurts MEMP.Also odds are high OPEC will meet again in Feb.The press in this country has played a bigger part in oils drop than demand in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • swgastar by swgastar Dec 10, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    MEMP was down only 7 cents when I looked.I was expecting it to be down big like the rest of the energy sector.Looks like investers are starting to take notice of their low commodity risk.

  • Reply to

    The conference

    by bicepsbunny Dec 9, 2014 12:37 PM
    swgastar swgastar Dec 9, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Morgtan Stanley cant predict what oil will do no more than I can.I had an account with them one time and they put me in Cisco at $70 and it dropped to $10.I wouldn't put much into what they have to say.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Because of strong hedges MEMP will report huge gains .Its too early to say how much but it should be huge.This MLP is down just because of the industry its in and not fundamentals.One option might be to sell the hedges and wipe out the debt.This might let them buy more production to offset the locked in prices.I just don't think prices will stay down for long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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