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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

swhitemd50 195 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 31, 2014 11:25 AM Member since: Jul 4, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Form DEF 14 A

    by rojospan Mar 30, 2014 2:46 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Mar 31, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Qdelphan:
    I have trouble believing they can charge 250K for the VX809/770 combo. If the phase 3 trials match the phase 2, there will be moderate improvement. How much can be charged for moderate improvement in 28000 patients? It will not be the dramatic improvement seen in the 1100 patients for which Kalydeco mono therapy was initially approved. And when you have 28,000 patients instead of just 1100, it makes it even more difficult to justify a high price. I have a significant long position in this stock but I have my doubts.

  • Reply to

    The good, the bad and the ugly

    by swhitemd50 Nov 9, 2013 2:14 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 12, 2013 2:30 PM Flag

    When the dust settles and the stock price hits bottom probably sometime before the end of the year, most investors will not be willing to touch this with a ten foot pole. It will likely overcorrect to the downside, going lower than most investors on this MB would expect. Release of some good news before year end could change this trajectory. I think if there is any good news, management will release it immediately to help stop the bleeding and they know that holding back any good news creates a risk that there will be trading on the news before its release.

  • Reply to

    The good, the bad and the ugly

    by swhitemd50 Nov 9, 2013 2:14 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 10, 2013 10:58 AM Flag

    I meant there are currently no partners for VX787 or VX509. I agree a partnership deal would raise the stock price. I believe eventually they will generate revenue in some way from one or both of these drugs. However, even with a deal for VX787 or VX509, the company will likely continue to lose money until it gets approval for a drug that can benefit the majority of CF patients.

  • First, the bad and ugly:

    Incivek may have been the fastest drug to reach blockbuster status and probably the fastest blockbuster drug to to crash and burn.
    There are no partners for VX787 or VX509.
    VX135 prospects are in doubt.
    Insiders continue to sell their shares.
    The market cap has dropped about $3.5 billion ( 20%) just since earnings on 10/29/13.
    Anyone purchasing shares after 4/19/13 is underwater and tax loss selling season is coming.
    The stock price has made a significant low near the end of each calendar year including 2010, 2011, & 2012 and it looks like it will do the same thing this year.
    The company will continue to lose money until at least 2015 and the only thing that will stop the red ink is approval of VX809.

    What's good:

    Kalydeco revenues continue to increase and Kalydeco monotherapy will probably be approved for other mutations.
    VX809 had excellent phase II results and I believe it is likely the phase III results will be similar.
    The company is cutting costs by cutting its workforce 15% (though, they should also be reducing the ranks of their bloated, overcompensated and underachieving management, not just the workers).
    The company appears to have enough cash to keep going until approval of VX809.

    The bottom line:

    The stock price will probably continue to fall in the near term given the negative factors listed above. As long as the CF drug development story remains intact, there is significant potential upside over the next 8 to 24 months. I will continue to hold my shares unless the new CF drugs do not work out.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    my take of totay's stock action

    by gladpick Sep 13, 2013 4:24 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Sep 20, 2013 6:46 PM Flag

    Companies like Vanguard and Blackrock probably sold shares to their respective S&P 500 index funds at a reasonable price.

  • Reply to

    my take of totay's stock action

    by gladpick Sep 13, 2013 4:24 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Sep 20, 2013 6:31 PM Flag

    Most of the 42+M shares could not have been traded on the open market or the price volatility would have been huge. I have read that institutional investors will trade large blocks of stock among themselves at mutually agreed upon prices. I suspect this is what happened today.

  • swhitemd50 by swhitemd50 Apr 17, 2013 10:35 AM Flag

    I am not sure how much to read into this but insider sales of Vertex have completely dried up over the past few months. There have been no reported insider sales since February. Prior to that there were insider sales every month for the past few years. Could the insiders know something positive?

  • swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Dec 30, 2012 8:58 AM Flag

    Excellent analysis! Of course, there will be other revenues from non-CF drugs like VX-787, VX-509 and, probably, some oral combination for hepatitis C in 2016 or 2017.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reading CF patient blogs I came across one in which the parent of a patient was told by the doctor that this trial will commence in March, 2013 and last for a year. I was hoping it would begin earlier than March but it is nice to hear that it is going to happen in early 2013 as Vertex's management stated.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • swhitemd50 by swhitemd50 Dec 29, 2012 4:30 PM Flag

    For the last four years Vertex stock price has hit a low point in late November/early December but has then rebounded strongly in late December and January. However, 2007 was an exception to this pattern. Let's hope the pattern of the past four years continues this time

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    You pumpers just don't get it BLACK BOX

    by giguy_1999 Dec 19, 2012 11:45 AM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Dec 19, 2012 5:58 PM Flag

    There are about 400 FDA approved drugs with black box warnings. Almost every day I administer drugs with black box warnings in my anesthesiology practice. Two commonly used black box warning drugs I use are succinylcholine (a muscle relaxant) and droperidol (used as an antiemetic). As clinicians, we weigh the risks and benefits of every medication we use and we are aware of the potential adverse events. We also know how to recognize those events and respond appropriately. Often, drugs with black box warnings are still the best choice.

  • Reply to

    40.14 print in AH's

    by chevymalibu1966 Dec 19, 2012 4:57 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Dec 19, 2012 5:35 PM Flag

    200 shares sold for 40.14 after hours and 100 shares sold for 40.56 after hours. A total of about 40,000 shares sold after hours and all but those 300 shares sold for more than $43/share.

  • Reply to

    Making the case for VX-809/Kalydeco

    by swhitemd50 Dec 2, 2012 3:53 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Dec 8, 2012 10:40 AM Flag

    Third, I thought the inhaled antibiotics were continued throughout the phase 2 VX-809/Kalydeco trial. There was a presentation by Michael Boyle, MD with a slide showing baseline characteristics for the phase 2 study participants. The 600 mg VX-809/Kalydeco group had 86% on inhaled antibiotics and the placebo group had 91% on inhaled antibiotics. Stopping the inhaled antibiotics at any point during the study would add a confounding variable. The phase 3 Ataluren study showed it was more difficult to show improvement when patients are using inhaled antibiotics. Therefore the 6.7% improvement seen with those receiving the combo compared to placebo is more impressive if most of the patients were using inhaled antibiotics.

  • Reply to

    Making the case for VX-809/Kalydeco

    by swhitemd50 Dec 2, 2012 3:53 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Dec 2, 2012 4:37 PM Flag

    That should read negative five point five FEV1 with placebo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Making the case for VX-809/Kalydeco

    by swhitemd50 Dec 2, 2012 3:53 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Dec 2, 2012 4:34 PM Flag

    Another typo. It should read: Now consider the final phase 2 results for 600mg VX-809/Kalydeco.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Making the case for VX-809/Kalydeco

    by swhitemd50 Dec 2, 2012 3:53 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Dec 2, 2012 4:00 PM Flag

    That should read: Ataluren had poor phase 3 results with about a -2.5% FEV1 change compared to #$%$ FEV1 with placebo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Whether this drug combination is successful is a multibillion dollar question. What investors want to know is if the phase 3 trial will show enough improvement for double delta F508 CF patients to get FDA approval and justify a huge price. One way to get some idea of the answers to these questions is to look at the results for Kalydeco monotherapy in 551 mutation CF patients and the response to Ataluren in the 10% of CF patients with "nonsense" mutations. Kalydeco monotherapy in the 551 mutation patients produced dramatic results with about a 10% mean absolute improvement in FEV1 compared to placebo at 48 weeks. It received early FDA approval. Ataluren had poor phase 3 results with about a -2.5% FEV1 change compared to #$%$ FEV1 with placebo. Those not using inhaled antibiotics did somewhat better with Ataluren: -0.2% FEV1 for those on the drug versus -6.9% on placebo. Of course, it is more difficult to show improvement in lung function for CF patients on inhaled antibiotics. Ataluren will not receive FDA approval with these results. Now consider the final phase 3 results for 600 mg VX-809/Kalydeco. These patients had a mean absolute improvement in lung function (FEV1) of 6.7% compared to placebo from day 0 to day 56. Also, 18 of the 21 (86%) patients showing this improvement were on inhaled antibiotics. The results are not as good as those seen with Kalydeco monotherapy in 551 mutation CF patients but they are far superior to the Ataluren results. Even moderate improvements in lung function as seen with VX-809/Kalydeco could add years to the life expectancy of these patients. Of course, these VX-809/Kalydeco results need to be confirmed in a larger and longer phase 3 trial. Remember, if VX-809/Kalydeco is approved after the phase 3 trial, there are 12 times as many CF patients that can be treated with this combination compared to the Kalydeco monotherapy. Even if Vertex charges half what they charge for Kalydeco monotherapy, this could be a drug with multibillion dollar revenue for years to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    vrtx is making me dizzy

    by chevymalibu1966 Nov 29, 2012 2:49 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 30, 2012 6:42 PM Flag

    It did not "drop like a stone" as someone suggested yesterday. Good luck with your short position. You should make money anyway you can and, if TA works for you, then make yourself rich. However, remember that your losses are limited with long positions but with short positions your losses can be limitless. As for the direction of Vertex's stock, I believe the next 15 to 20 points are more likely to be up than down. Vertex has lost more than $5 billion in market cap since its high in May, 2012. It has lost almost $4 billion in market cap since the CF conference at the beginning of October, 2012. And it has lost more than $2 billion in market cap since November 2, 2012. The current market cap of about $8.6 billion is pricing in or "discounting" some extremely bad news that may not actually occur. The assumptions seem to be 1) Incivek revenue will continue to fall sharply and be completely gone in the next 12 to 18 months. 2) Vertex pipeline of hep C drugs, including VX-135 will fail. 3) Kalydeco has nearly reached its peak revenues because it is going to be tough to get any money out of the europeans for this new therapy. 4) Expanding the label for Kalydeco beyond 4% of the CF population will fail. 5) VX-809/Kalydeco in homozygous F508del does not work (the conclusion of Goldman Sachs' Terrence Flynn) and all of the statistically significant results thus far have been an aberration. 6) VX-661/Kalydeco must also be failing because they refuse to divulge interim results. 7) VX-787 for influenza will fail. 8) VX-509 for rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases will fail. 8) And finally, Vertex will lose so much money in 2013 that it will burn through its $1.3 billion cash and need to raise capital. Sometimes investors get too pessimistic and I think that is what is happening now with Vertex.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where Vertex is headed

    by swhitemd50 Nov 29, 2012 10:30 AM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 30, 2012 12:24 PM Flag

    I think it is wise not to release interim data unless things are going so badly that the trial needs to be be halted. When a trial is going well, it is better to wait until you have the final results. before you release anything. I think Vertex management has learned this hard lesson.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where Vertex is headed

    by swhitemd50 Nov 29, 2012 10:30 AM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 30, 2012 10:59 AM Flag

    Vertex got burned so badly when they bungled the release of phase 2 VX-809 data last May that I think they were not going touch Terrence Flynn's question regarding interim phase 2 VX-661 data with a 10 foot pole. Even if the data is fantastic.

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