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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

swhitemd50 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 31, 2014 11:25 AM Member since: Jul 4, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Form DEF 14 A

    by rojospan Mar 30, 2014 2:46 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Mar 31, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    I have trouble believing they can charge 250K for the VX809/770 combo. If the phase 3 trials match the phase 2, there will be moderate improvement. How much can be charged for moderate improvement in 28000 patients? It will not be the dramatic improvement seen in the 1100 patients for which Kalydeco mono therapy was initially approved. And when you have 28,000 patients instead of just 1100, it makes it even more difficult to justify a high price. I have a significant long position in this stock but I have my doubts.

  • Reply to

    The good, the bad and the ugly

    by swhitemd50 Nov 9, 2013 2:14 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 12, 2013 2:30 PM Flag

    When the dust settles and the stock price hits bottom probably sometime before the end of the year, most investors will not be willing to touch this with a ten foot pole. It will likely overcorrect to the downside, going lower than most investors on this MB would expect. Release of some good news before year end could change this trajectory. I think if there is any good news, management will release it immediately to help stop the bleeding and they know that holding back any good news creates a risk that there will be trading on the news before its release.

  • Reply to

    The good, the bad and the ugly

    by swhitemd50 Nov 9, 2013 2:14 PM
    swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 10, 2013 10:58 AM Flag

    I meant there are currently no partners for VX787 or VX509. I agree a partnership deal would raise the stock price. I believe eventually they will generate revenue in some way from one or both of these drugs. However, even with a deal for VX787 or VX509, the company will likely continue to lose money until it gets approval for a drug that can benefit the majority of CF patients.

  • First, the bad and ugly:

    Incivek may have been the fastest drug to reach blockbuster status and probably the fastest blockbuster drug to to crash and burn.
    There are no partners for VX787 or VX509.
    VX135 prospects are in doubt.
    Insiders continue to sell their shares.
    The market cap has dropped about $3.5 billion ( 20%) just since earnings on 10/29/13.
    Anyone purchasing shares after 4/19/13 is underwater and tax loss selling season is coming.
    The stock price has made a significant low near the end of each calendar year including 2010, 2011, & 2012 and it looks like it will do the same thing this year.
    The company will continue to lose money until at least 2015 and the only thing that will stop the red ink is approval of VX809.

    What's good:

    Kalydeco revenues continue to increase and Kalydeco monotherapy will probably be approved for other mutations.
    VX809 had excellent phase II results and I believe it is likely the phase III results will be similar.
    The company is cutting costs by cutting its workforce 15% (though, they should also be reducing the ranks of their bloated, overcompensated and underachieving management, not just the workers).
    The company appears to have enough cash to keep going until approval of VX809.

    The bottom line:

    The stock price will probably continue to fall in the near term given the negative factors listed above. As long as the CF drug development story remains intact, there is significant potential upside over the next 8 to 24 months. I will continue to hold my shares unless the new CF drugs do not work out.

    Sentiment: Hold

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