70% probability of success for PH3 RSV elderly sounds VERY low to me. PH2 was 1600 participants with an efficacy rate of 45% or so which is in line with the flu shot in good years. There is absolutely zero reason to think that a PH3 with 10,000 participants or so would not have the same or better results. If the trial design is changed it can only get better. To say this program is de-risked is at this point a gross understatement.
Wily-you soooo set yourself up to be insulted, but i will pass on it. Instead i will say that my greatest (financial) wish is that you be able to boast that your gross overconfidence was/is justified. NOTHING in biotech is as sure a thing as you project...and the great success that you, I, and all of us longs wish for, and hopefully will see, will not change that.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I like the honesty. Right now one has to be nervous, stupid, or a liar. I am with you BBall in that I am nervous as well. Of course this does not mean that we cannot remain confident. I am, but it never helps when probably innocuous downward price movement comes just before the imminent release of data.
True...and it is hard to be a smart trader here. If positive EBV comes first, one may want to sell based on an overreaction. On the other hand, if you also believe in the platform, it is risky bc you can jump out for a day or week and miss out on positive results on the other programs. On any other stock, even as an investor in the fundamentals, I would consider an ebola trade, bc I have seen how crazy ebola based valuations can get. For NVAX I will not do that for 2 reasons:
1) I would not miss out on holding my shares for RSV and flu results under any circumstances
2) As it happens, I was out of NVAX for a cup of coffee and then back in again about 8-9 months ago, so I need several months to get to LTCG on my current shares, (not that I would necessarily sell after a year even after we get all our data this quarter),
Thanks Wily- I agree with everything you just said (except my strong confidence in the results is not quite as strong as yours). I was referring exactly to the "temporary" market reaction that you mention.
Ronde-I agree with your management comments, and comments re what should drive the company. But I was not suggesting nor do I think management gets to choose which results get released first. Whatever is ready to be made public first will be made public first, in that order. I guess I am just tired of seeing ebola hysteria affect the value of some of my holdings. I think it is birdy (or maybe wily?) that also held TKMR and they will probably tell you the same thing.
Just sharing a thought,,,which is that I really hope the ebola results do NOT come first. I am hoping for a rationale market reaction to clinical trial results. I think we will get that with RSV and flu. On the other hand, the market reaction to ebola results, and the attraction of day traders, even for companies not known for ebola (see TKMR for example), is borderline hysterical (not the funny hysterical). I am optimistic but don't get too high on an overreaction to expected positive EBV results, and don't get too low on a sell off if by chance the EBV is not what we expect.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Nice call. If you think fact that institutions which have performance benchmarked to indexes must buy is "meaningless", you are most certainly clueless.
Boucher-Cut it out. You have proven your self to be a liar and a fraud. You have shown no knowledge of TA. You scrub all your incorrect posts and blatantly lie and say that Yahoo is doing it bc of all the thumbs downs (they don't do that). Your are a fraud, phony, a liar, and clearly not very bright. You are not fooling anybody. My guess is that you have lost quite a bit on $$ trading NVAX, and you are primed to lose a lot more. Oh...and i remember back when you started posting and characterized yourself as a completely green and naive investor (which you are) who was pleading for advice and help. That persona was humorous. Your current one is not.
good point very short window to get out before data. Can someone remind me of the order we expect various trial results and the earliest projections for readouts of any of the various pivotal trial results?
Agree (except for the guarantee) although by EOY if all as set forth by Wily is successful (and I think it will) then I think we could be at $25. I realize that is a 7 or 8B MC, but I think at that point we are totally de-risked and at a point ripe for a 25% to %50 takeout above that price.
IMO the most likely explanation is NOTHING has changed (other than Modi doneselling). The only thing that has changed is that each day we get closer to clinical data results. The 3rd QTR is just DAYS away. Or maybe I am just projecting my own confidence in the results. I can't remember having this type of heavy $$$ on something and not sweating more about the pending data. Have not even for a second considered selling in a run up to the data either. Very comfortable seeing it through. I think smart money feels the same way.