Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

system_architect_enterprise 100 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Apr 28, 2006
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    this is my first post in the history of history

    by stareynight May 26, 2015 12:53 PM
    system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise 23 hours ago Flag

    Actually, they used to say "First Half of 2015". Now that vernacular has changed to "Mid-Year" apparently to gain some wiggle room. Management strikes again. Do they really think we wouldn't notice?

  • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 26, 2015 10:19 PM Flag

    Revenue projections run from $500M/year to $2B/year.

    From Forbes article:
    Let's take a look at a reasonable scenario that assumes no accelerated approval for eteplirsen: The drug reaches the U.S. market in early 2016 and three new exon-skipping targets -- 45, 50 and 53 -- are approved in 2017. This gives Sarepta a market opportunity totaling 7,000 patients in four years. Let's assume a price of $350,000 (on the lower side of estimates) and a capture rate of 70% by 2019. That would give Sarepta $1.7 billion in sales in six years time.

    Keep in mind that these 7,000 patients are only one-quarter of the addressable market. Once it dawns on investors that Sarepta's exon-skipping technology works in the first few targets, the company's market value will begin to bake in other targets as well.

    ... Today, Sarepta's market cap stands at $800 million. If one assumes a similar market cap as Alexion in six years time, Sarepta has the potential to be a 20-bagger -- if my scenario plays out.

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 26, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Romuluss99 are you saying that you are disclosing non-public information and that you know they are preparing a secondary offering?

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 26, 2015 5:35 AM Flag

    Will they go the accelerated approval route, or regular?

  • Reply to

    Sold my SCMP to buy more SRPT

    by system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 3:57 PM
    system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 21, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    Thanks. I'm in at $14 and bought more today at $24. Will hit $50 this year.

  • Reply to

    Sold my SCMP to buy more SRPT

    by system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 3:57 PM
    system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 21, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    Agreed. Not sure when LL will fully rebound, but that stock is way lower than it should be. The whole scandal is overblown.

  • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 21, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    Clinical trial data shows efficacy is extremely good for Eteplirsen and very poor for other drug candidates. That is why major partners have pulled the plug in their support for drisapersen and others because the other drugs simply don't work.

  • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 21, 2015 7:35 AM Flag

    Not really. Probably open down and then end up up for the day.

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 21, 2015 7:16 AM Flag

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-see-more-upside-sarepta-204841116.html

    Analyst estimates range from $35 to $75/share with several commenting about $100+ after approval.

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Selling my SCMP shares because I was so disappointed at how badly the shares were driven down after what I considered to be a very good quarter.

    SRPT has had many problems in the past, but finally fired their CEO and appointed a new one, and they just had a favorable meeting with the FDA so they can finally get their NDA filed for eteplirsen. At $27/share it could and should double within the next 2 months. It has been over $50 before (but delays in filing drove it way down - in my opinion due to management missteps, but that is fixed now).

    Best of luck to SCMP shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Still vastly undervalued

    by system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 7:53 AM
    system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    I'm certain. I'm an investor. I'm also the owner of a company I started and developed, and know value when I see it. I also recognize problems. I've been highly critical of management on their many screw-ups, and also see the potential that drew me to this stock to begin with.

  • Reply to

    Scary stats for shorts

    by system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 7:59 AM
    system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 8:01 AM Flag

    Sorry, not FLOAT, but Shares OUTSTANDING accounted for.
    If I was only considering float, the number would jump to 141%.

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 7:59 AM Flag

    All from Yahoo's STATS page:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks;_ylt=AvFTbJpcONZyJbUopID2gMkLv7gF;_ylu=X3oDMTEybTIxZWU4BHBvcwM0BHNlYwN5ZmlRdW90ZXNUYWJsZQRzbGsDc3RhdHM-?s=SRPT

    65 4% owned by institutions
    13.1% owned by insiders
    32.2% shares shorted
    ----------------------------------
    110.7% of float accounted for BEFORE any surge buying on good news, by people waiting for progress, momentum players, speculators who jump in based on likelihood of FDA approval based on the filing, and BEFORE any short covering.

    Shorts have done very well on this stock in the past, but the tide appears to be turning ...

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 7:53 AM Flag

    We could easily see $50+ within a very short time, as we have before. Investors are wisely cautious based on numerous missteps from management, but this appears to be real and substantial progress. This provides an opportunity to invest now and get a substantial ROI for SRPT shareholders, provided progress continues.

    Certainly there is still risk, and if management blows it and FDA denies approval, then it would be game over for SRPT, and management has a long string of mistakes. Still, under new leadership by the new CEO there is hope and the latest developments wig the FDA show promise.

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 20, 2015 5:47 AM Flag

    I downloaded and reviewed the presentation overview LOGG filed with the SEC and it looks really good. The technology base is sound, their approach provides a high degree of confidence in fielding an extremely competitive product, and risks are minimal. As a technologist, this combines the simplicity of function with a natural need to record life's most precious moments in a way that makes it simple to use, while effective.

    This is the video and audio equivalent to the iPod. Easy to use, and can meet a stealth need throughout a huge user base. Everybody from Moms & Dads, to cops, to workers needing remote assistance from an expert, to hundreds of millions of teenagers and youth who currently take selfies, snapchats, instagrams, etc., and ensures none of them will ever miss a moment.

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 19, 2015 10:46 PM Flag

    Congratulations on finally getting the FDA filing in order. Apparently it took the new CEO to get it done.

    The bottom line is that they DID finally get it done. GOOD. A great day for boys with this disease! Help is coming guys.

    A great day for longs too.

  • system_architect_enterprise by system_architect_enterprise May 19, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    If they can't get the NDA filed by the 4th deadline (they've missed 3 times already), then the ENTIRE management team should be dismissed with impunity. No severance, no pension, nothing - because they have been unable to produce anything while they drew fat salaries and juicy stock options.

    Maybe then they would step up and get something done for a change.

  • Reply to

    WHAT IS THE SA MESSAGE BOARD?

    by mktdata1 May 15, 2015 10:22 AM
    system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 15, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    It is a website that is pretending to be a "news source" but anybody - absolutely ANYbody" can publish a so-called "article" and pretend they are an expert. Unknowing investors sometimes aren't wary of the ruse and think it is a real article by a real analyst, when it isn't.

    You can publish an article there too and you get paid based on how many page views your "article" gets, because they sell ad space. So the more inflammatory, more biased, more insane the article, the better it is for you. You get more pennies (regardless of what damage you may do to any stock/company).

  • I stand corrected. The message board over at Seeking Alpha obviously is far more powerful than the Yahoo message board, as that message (pretend article) decimated this stock 50%+ in 2-days.

    People slam stocks all the time here on Yahoo and nobody cares.

    I guess SeekingAlpha is the new standard where all investors get their advice. Guess everybody should leave Yahoo.

  • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise May 15, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Uh, if I was short - why on earth would I be asking for them to file the NDA?

    Do you even think about this stuff before you post or just randomly throw it out there?

    Here is the way it works: Those asking for PROGRESS, for the company to DO something, are long, and for the company.

    Those who are fully complacent with a long string of unexplained delays and lack of action, don't want the company to advance, and are against the company.

ACAD
40.82+0.72(+1.80%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT