Good point. Over the years my investments in Apple, Google, Microsoft, and others have had downturns where they lost 10% of their value in 2 days. ISIS is in good company. Thanks for reminding me.
Massive drop, clearly on illegal manipulation, but nothing can be done about it. Certainly no reason for the drop. Can't blame Greece or the FED.
Yahoo filters out more than most people realize. Not the spam and annoyances we hate, but meaningful, useful information that would enhance investor confidence and boost understanding of the whole approach by ISIS. In time, people will recognize Yahoo MBs as carefully censored and intentionally manipulated.
I agree in the $5-6B range, just am not sure how fast they will ramp up to that level. Certainly there are some that will try a cheaper approach and then go to Eteplirsen when the cheaper route fails, but there is such limited time for that failing approach.
The bigger question on valuation is the extension of this exon skipping approach and variations, and how they may be able to leverage this into other situations. The initial valuation will be good, but the strategic implications may be significantly more. So in the case of a buyout, we have to consider the immediate value, near term (2-5 years) value, and long term value (5-20 years).
Microsoft DOS was good, but the strategic value was far far more.
The Apple Macintosh was good, but the strategic value was far far more.
The Google search engine was good, but the strategic value was far far more.
OK. Sounds like I'd better go back and sift through the data again then. I thought they met the primary end points.
If you would be willing to share what you view as less clear now (or more muddy), I would appreciate your insight and opinion.
I was reading the headlines and everything seemed good. I was kicking myself for not buying more last week. So why down this morning? I'm happy to jump on this today and buy at a discount.
Actually, they used to say "First Half of 2015". Now that vernacular has changed to "Mid-Year" apparently to gain some wiggle room. Management strikes again. Do they really think we wouldn't notice?
Revenue projections run from $500M/year to $2B/year.
From Forbes article:
Let's take a look at a reasonable scenario that assumes no accelerated approval for eteplirsen: The drug reaches the U.S. market in early 2016 and three new exon-skipping targets -- 45, 50 and 53 -- are approved in 2017. This gives Sarepta a market opportunity totaling 7,000 patients in four years. Let's assume a price of $350,000 (on the lower side of estimates) and a capture rate of 70% by 2019. That would give Sarepta $1.7 billion in sales in six years time.
Keep in mind that these 7,000 patients are only one-quarter of the addressable market. Once it dawns on investors that Sarepta's exon-skipping technology works in the first few targets, the company's market value will begin to bake in other targets as well.
... Today, Sarepta's market cap stands at $800 million. If one assumes a similar market cap as Alexion in six years time, Sarepta has the potential to be a 20-bagger -- if my scenario plays out.
Romuluss99 are you saying that you are disclosing non-public information and that you know they are preparing a secondary offering?
Thanks. I'm in at $14 and bought more today at $24. Will hit $50 this year.
Agreed. Not sure when LL will fully rebound, but that stock is way lower than it should be. The whole scandal is overblown.
Clinical trial data shows efficacy is extremely good for Eteplirsen and very poor for other drug candidates. That is why major partners have pulled the plug in their support for drisapersen and others because the other drugs simply don't work.
Not really. Probably open down and then end up up for the day.
Analyst estimates range from $35 to $75/share with several commenting about $100+ after approval.
Selling my SCMP shares because I was so disappointed at how badly the shares were driven down after what I considered to be a very good quarter.
SRPT has had many problems in the past, but finally fired their CEO and appointed a new one, and they just had a favorable meeting with the FDA so they can finally get their NDA filed for eteplirsen. At $27/share it could and should double within the next 2 months. It has been over $50 before (but delays in filing drove it way down - in my opinion due to management missteps, but that is fixed now).
Best of luck to SCMP shareholders.
I'm certain. I'm an investor. I'm also the owner of a company I started and developed, and know value when I see it. I also recognize problems. I've been highly critical of management on their many screw-ups, and also see the potential that drew me to this stock to begin with.
Sorry, not FLOAT, but Shares OUTSTANDING accounted for.
If I was only considering float, the number would jump to 141%.
All from Yahoo's STATS page:
65 4% owned by institutions
13.1% owned by insiders
32.2% shares shorted
110.7% of float accounted for BEFORE any surge buying on good news, by people waiting for progress, momentum players, speculators who jump in based on likelihood of FDA approval based on the filing, and BEFORE any short covering.
Shorts have done very well on this stock in the past, but the tide appears to be turning ...
We could easily see $50+ within a very short time, as we have before. Investors are wisely cautious based on numerous missteps from management, but this appears to be real and substantial progress. This provides an opportunity to invest now and get a substantial ROI for SRPT shareholders, provided progress continues.
Certainly there is still risk, and if management blows it and FDA denies approval, then it would be game over for SRPT, and management has a long string of mistakes. Still, under new leadership by the new CEO there is hope and the latest developments wig the FDA show promise.