It does seem a little late in the economic cycle to buy smokestack stocks. If there is a recession in 2017, UNP's price will start to reflect it soon. Still, the dividend is probably safe.
Hey, does anyone know anything about LYV? Seems like a great concept, their ticketing subsidiary has a Buffet style "moat" and pricing power, but they don't manage to make any money. What is wrong?
One of my favorite holdings, WYN, has dropped in price recently. If you need outsized yields, this isn't the place, but I really like this company. I sold my RLJ to buy it because I didn't want to be overweighted in hotels, and RLJ was a great stock for me, and is still a great stock. If you like reits and/or hotels, you should look at WYN..
They have three divisions, but in one, timeshares, they are a very rare company that is both a monopoly and a monopsony. If you want to buy one of their timeshares, you almost have to buy it from them. If you want to sell one, you almost have to sell it to them. What a racket! The division is very profitable. The rest of the company isn't bad either.
Incidentally, I seem to be drawn to companies with ticker symbols that sound like they belong to other, better known companies, like HP and WYN. I am talking about Wyndham Worldwide, not Wynn Resorts.
If you like SDRL, buy SFL. The big problem with SFL is that SDRL or FRO goes bankrupt. SFL could make a lot of money even if those two just stagger along, barely making ends meet.
I don't own any of them, but I'm looking for an entry point for SFL.
I think you are being wise, Mark. As I posted a week ago, I just bought some CVX. Very staid, not like Goodrich at all. My Goodrich bond investment was very small, less than 1% of my portfolio. The reason I made it when I did is that a lot of the return comes from the interest payments, and you have to own it to get those. As I posted before, I expect Goodrich to go bankrupt, and bondholders to take a haircut, but I think the assets are valuable enough to make some money anyway.
When I try to post to a four month old thread, it always goes away, so I'll start a new one. But back then, I posted about distressed oil company bonds. I bought some, and they have bounced around, but they currently trade for about 5% more than I paid, and I have received one interest payment. I think there is a lot of room in this space for people who want to do some research - it isn't the kind of thing you will find a lot of information about on the internet, but that means there are opportunities out there.
Things can go wrong. Recently EXXI made a new debt issue that subordinated their previously senior notes - fortunately, I wasn't invested there. There are a lot of opportunities here, especially in a tax sheltered account.
Just an update to my general theme of buying distressed energy bonds. The Goodrich bonds I bought paid their interest payment a month ago, and they trade just a bit above what I paid for them, so far so good.
There are lots of distressed energy bonds out there. It is something of a crapshoot, since you can have a situation like what recently happened with EXXI where your senior notes suddenly become subordinated, but I think there is some real value here. Moreover, it is a corner of the market that doesn't get a lot of attention,so you are more likely to uncover inefficiencies.
RAX is an expensive company in a high growth area where margins are tightening. I think RAX could double their earnings and see the stock price go down.
Well, my face is red. I hadn't been researching it, just skimming the news, but I should have seen the item about Wells Fargo since I still own that.
At least SOME of the assets went to smaller banks. Oh, well.
Did you notice who is buying all the GE assets? It isn't BAC, or JPM, or the big banks generally. Most of the operations are going to small players, and in bits and pieces. That has to be encouraging.
BAC recently went out of business here, and sold their branches to Washington Mutual, or maybe it was Washington Federal. They are just not moving very fast.
Wait, what? KRFT has a very low book value. The overall book value ina merger doesn't change much, but in this case the tangible book value per share will go down, right?
Incidentally, axp, I just bought some CVX. I view the integrated oils as defensive stocks right now.
The only reason I think the market is near its top, is that it's late in a recovery and some historical measures are high. Historically, presidential election years the market does well, but the year following it does poorly. But really, I have no idea, and I know I have no idea. So when cash had accumulated past my standard range, I bought something. Since it is late in the recovery, I bought something pretty staid and stable. I won't be chasing anything, up or down, just rebalancing.
I just bought some CVX. I think the stock market is headed lower and oil isn't headed much higher anytime soon, but while I wait I get a 4% yield, much better than cash, and i feel very confident i will be able to get out whole in few years. Not very inspired, but a good plcae to wait late in a recovery, i hope.
They have two issues of bonds (senior unsecured) out that are trading like the people buying them expect to get paid in full when they mature in 2019 and 2022. Interesting little company..